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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2017
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#NDX Higher Aug 5880.30 5995.50 5750.50 5988.60 97% 31 18 16 89% 5995.50 6362.38 5988.60
USZ7 Higher Aug 151~230 156~280 151~000 156~030 87% 39 25 22 88% 156~280 163~200 156~030
TYZ7 Higher Aug 125~175 127~105 125~105 126~315 83% 35 25 23 92% 127~105 130~314 126~315
EDZ7 Higher Aug 98.550 98.600 98.530 98.585 79% 35 26 25 96% 98.600 99.085 98.585
EDH8 Higher Aug 98.470 98.555 98.445 98.540 86% 35 25 24 96% 98.555 99.071 98.540
EDM8 Higher Aug 98.410 98.520 98.375 98.495 83% 35 24 23 96% 98.520 99.105 98.495
SFZ7 Higher Aug 104.36 106.83 103.19 104.89 47% 42 21 18 86% 106.83 112.47 104.89
DXZ7 Lower Aug 92.538 93.840 91.350 92.392 42% 31 17 15 88% 91.350 88.067 92.392
PAZ7 Higher Aug 877.55 947.00 860.80 932.25 83% 40 14 12 86% 947.00 1041.85 932.25
HOZ7 Higher Aug 167.24 170.38 156.57 170.16 98% 38 21 19 90% 170.38 185.18 170.16
HOF8 Higher Aug 167.40 169.29 157.14 169.19 99% 38 21 19 90% 169.29 183.07 169.19
HOG8 Higher Aug 167.22 168.32 157.35 168.24 99% 38 21 19 90% 168.32 181.78 168.24
RBZ7 Higher Aug 150.10 153.78 140.44 153.66 99% 32 17 15 88% 153.78 167.98 153.66
RBF8 Higher Aug 149.50 151.78 140.32 151.65 99% 32 16 14 88% 151.78 163.72 151.65
RBG8 Higher Aug 150.22 152.03 141.15 151.98 100% 32 16 14 88% 152.03 163.12 151.98
SMZ7 Lower Aug 325.40 322.60 295.10 299.50 16% 45 17 15 88% 295.10 270.54 299.50
CTZ7 Higher Aug 68.86 71.20 66.64 70.93 94% 44 17 15 88% 71.20 78.77 70.93


NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 5880.30(Prev Close), the market ended August at 5988.60(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 5750.50(Month Low) to 5995.50(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #NDX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 5995.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 6362.38(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 151~230(Prev Close), the market ended August at 156~030(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 151~000(Month Low) to 156~280(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 156~280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 163~200(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 125~175(Prev Close), the market ended August at 126~315(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 125~105(Month Low) to 127~105(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 127~105(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 130~314(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 98.550(Prev Close), the market ended August at 98.585(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 98.530(Month Low) to 98.600(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 98.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 99.085(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 98.470(Prev Close), the market ended August at 98.540(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 98.445(Month Low) to 98.555(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 98.555(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 99.071(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 98.410(Prev Close), the market ended August at 98.495(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 98.375(Month Low) to 98.520(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, EDM went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 98.520(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 99.105(Average Objective).

December Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 104.36(Prev Close), the market ended August at 104.89(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 103.19(Month Low) to 106.83(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SFZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 106.83(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 112.47(Average Objective).

December US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 92.538(Prev Close), the market ended August at 92.392(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 91.350(Month Low) to 93.840(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, DXZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 91.350(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 88.067(Average Objective).

December Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 877.55(Prev Close), the market ended August at 932.25(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 860.80(Month Low) to 947.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, PAZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 947.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 1041.85(Average Objective).

December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 167.24(Prev Close), the market ended August at 170.16(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 156.57(Month Low) to 170.38(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HOZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOZ should exceed 170.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 185.18(Average Objective).

January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOF8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 167.40(Prev Close), the market ended August at 169.19(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 157.14(Month Low) to 169.29(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HOF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOF should exceed 169.29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 183.07(Average Objective).

February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOG8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 167.22(Prev Close), the market ended August at 168.24(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 157.35(Month Low) to 168.32(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HOG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should exceed 168.32(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 181.78(Average Objective).

December RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 150.10(Prev Close), the market ended August at 153.66(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 140.44(Month Low) to 153.78(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBZ should exceed 153.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 167.98(Average Objective).

January RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBF8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 149.50(Prev Close), the market ended August at 151.65(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 140.32(Month Low) to 151.78(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBF should exceed 151.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 163.72(Average Objective).

February RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBG8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 150.22(Prev Close), the market ended August at 151.98(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 141.15(Month Low) to 152.03(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBG should exceed 152.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 163.12(Average Objective).

December Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 325.40(Prev Close), the market ended August at 299.50(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 295.10(Month Low) to 322.60(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, SMZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 295.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 270.54(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 68.86(Prev Close), the market ended August at 70.93(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 66.64(Month Low) to 71.20(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CTZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should exceed 71.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 78.77(Average Objective).
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