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ScenarioSM Study for February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Tested Years | 29 | 32 | 34 | 36 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | |
Closed Higher | 17 | 23 | 21 | 16 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 17 | 18 | 20 | |
Exceeded High | 15 | 22 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 14 | 18 | |
Scenario Percentage | 88% | 96% | 81% | 88% | 89% | 88% | 91% | 78% | 76% | 78% | 90% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.61% | 10.21% | 7.54% | 9.02% | 10.17% | 11.41% | 9.54% | 8.52% | 12.06% | 17.62% | 9.73% | |
Max Increase | 23.87% | 42.31% | 29.01% | 25.18% | 25.14% | 65.58% | 34.76% | 21.36% | 34.13% | 55.32% | 44.01% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 20 | 18 | 15 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.91% | -2.11% | -2.25% | -1.28% | -3.19% | -1.64% | -2.51% | -2.50% | -2.42% | -2.75% | -1.90% | |
Max Decline | -12.40% | -8.55% | -8.89% | -5.26% | -16.83% | -8.09% | -12.52% | -12.46% | -8.80% | -7.99% | -6.52% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 11 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | |
2018 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.