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May 2018 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat (W, KW, MW); with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several intra-market, and inter-market spreads; some cash studies and charts; and 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.

2018 Historical Lumber: this 60-page volume presents seasonal analysis of lumber futures; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month and some spreads, volatility studies, historical daily charts; and 22 seasonal and spread strategies suggest especially reliable seasonal movements throughout the year.

Recently published:

2018 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:
this 148-page volume presents seasonal analysis of the cattle complex; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads against each, live/feeder cattle spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2018 Historical Lean Hogs & Cattle/Hog Spreads:
this 126-page volume contains seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for cattle/hog spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts for both; with 76 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

This being written before the close of Thursday, March 29, how the markets and the CRB end the month are as yet unknown.  However, bullish crop reports for corn (CK up 15 cents/bu; CZ up 14 as we speak) and soybeans (SK up 30; SX up 31) and a higher energy complex suggest higher daily and monthly CRB closes.

The Index spent February fluctuating above and below the 50-day moving average (dma), itself in bullish alignment above the 200-dma (195  186).  Remember the CRB had broken to a new two-year high in January before pulling back hard in early February.  Since then it has stabilized (consolidated?) between those two levels.

If the CRB is bullish, what could drive it higher?  The energy complex has perhaps the biggest influence.  With the US fracking industry able to quickly ramp up and down, could only something globally disruptive drive crude oil out of its $58-67 range traded since mid December?  However, price is above the 50-dma ($63) which is above the 200-dma ($54.70).

The approaching US wheat harvest may suggest how much damage it has suffered.  And US corn and soybeans are not even in the ground and major exporter Argentina suffering.

And what about the US dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 29 March 2018 09:49
 

April 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat (W, KW, MW); with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several intra-market, and inter-market spreads; some cash studies and charts; and 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.

2018 Historical Lumber: this 60-page volume presents seasonal analysis of lumber futures; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month and some spreads, volatility studies, historical daily charts; and 22 seasonal and spread strategies suggest especially reliable seasonal movements throughout the year.

Recently published:

2018 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:
this 148-page volume presents seasonal analysis of the cattle complex; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads against each, live/feeder cattle spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2018 Historical Lean Hogs & Cattle/Hog Spreads:
this 126-page volume contains seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for cattle/hog spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts for both; with 76 seasonal and spread strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Now we have parameters?  Per stockcharts.com, the CRB Index in January broke out to new +2-year highs, suggesting a new uptrend for commodities.  Big one?  Small one?  Who knows.

With 2-year resistance just over 196, the Index rose to 201.  It then fell back to 187, rose to 197, and then fell again to end February at 194 right on the 50-dma.

So, is the market consolidating for a further move higher?  Rising above 201 or falling below 187 should now trigger and signal longer-term direction.  Indicators are neutral; the 50-dma is above the 200-dma.

Grains and soy seem to be turning up.  Corn and soybeans in currently too-dry Argentina are starting to suffer; demand for soymeal has been strong.  The market is now concerned about moisture for US winter wheat.

Metals have been trading sideways.  The biggest question may be energies, a big contributor to commodity indices and the economy.  Big world oil producers have been trying to hold production levels down enough to help support price until demand can exceed supply.  But every time price rises much, US shale producers ramp up production and hold price down.  So, neutral?  What could break that cycle?

We better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 05 March 2018 10:09
 

March 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Lumber: this 60-page volume presents seasonal analysis of lumber futures; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month and some spreads, volatility studies, historical daily charts; and 22 seasonal and spread strategies suggest especially reliable seasonal movements throughout the year.

Recently published:

2018 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume presents seasonal analysis of the cattle complex; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads against each, live/feeder cattle spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2018 Historical Lean Hogs & Cattle/Hog Spreads: this 126-page volume contains seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for cattle/hog spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts for both; with 76 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Could it be?  Is it true?  Did the CRB Index finally break out from a significant bottom?

After several years of decline, this venerable index hit a bottom just below 155 in January 2016.  Upon bouncing, it started falling again but this time found support again at 155 in February.  That short-term double bottom generated a run up to 196 by June.  A pullback found support for several months between 177 and 179. Another runup found resistance solid at 196.

A more serious decline began that looked like it might head for new lows.  Instead, it bottomed at about 166 in June 2017.

The rally since found enough resistance at 193 to drive it  back down to the 200-week moving average near 184 which turned it back up to blow through two-year resistance at 196.  On January 26, 2018, the CRB closed above 200 for the first time since early October 2015! Did that complete a big double bottom?

Are we at the beginning stages of an inflationary period?  Crude oil, despite record US production, traded above $66/barrel.  Gold poked again at the top of its 5-year range.  Palladium made new all-time highs, copper is in a multi-month bull market.  Cotton has shown some life.

We should get ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Friday, 02 February 2018 08:34
 

February 2018 Editors Comments

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CRB & Physical Commodities

Is it finally time?  Or just another head fake?

After making its all-time high in 2011, the CRB Index has been declining or correcting or ? It has made a couple stabs at establishing a bottom only to be followed by another decline to new lows.

But in January/February 2016, it made a double bottom at just below 155.  It then rose to about 195, exceeded and then retested its 50-week moving average (wma), and rose again into early 2017 only to find resistance a second time at 195.  "Disappointed," it fell to well below its 50-wma and appeared ready to make more new lows.

But this past June it instead held 167.  It turned up again, exceeded its 50-wma, but in November found resistance at 193.  It fell again.

But this time it retested its 50-wma successfully - and reversed back up to end the year at 194.  On the first day of 2018, it closed at nearly 195.

On the daily chart, it is now "overbought."  And back to major resistance.  Can it blow through?  Will it decline again?  Or will it back off, and then go?

Will we now see inflation in 2018 ... and beyond?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

 

January 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Indices: this 186-page volume contains seasonal analysis of the major US stock indices futures, such as S&P500, DJIA, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, S&PMidcap 400, and also several of the major international indices; with 170 trading strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Metals: this 84-page volume contains seasonal analysis for gold, silver, platinum, and copper; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; includes 72 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Interest Rates: this 222-page volume of seasonal analysis for not only US Treasury bonds and notes and Eurodollars but also several international sovereign debt instruments; with 206 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas; also introduces ratio spreads recognized by US exchanges for margin purposes.

CRB & Physical Commodities




Although it closed down hard on the last day of November at 189.17,
the CRB Index closed higher for the third successive month.  It was
still not far off major weekly resistance at 195-196 probed
first in June 2016 and then again December 2016-February 2017.

This time it has reached 192.99 so far.  It is struggling here,
but it has risen from its low last June at 166.48.  In doing so, it
again crossed above its 50-week moving average, which now resides
at 184.32.  Neither its stochastics nor RSI is particularly overbought
on a weekly basis, but both daily indicators have turned down.

Is/was this a correction?  The 50-day moving average (dma) at 186.79
is above the 200 dma at 182.10.  Perhaps, after three drives up, this
is/was a typical two-steps back move toward the 50-week ma.  If it
holds, then it may challenge 195-196 again the fourth time.

On the first day of December, political events drove the US dollar
and stock indices sharply lower and bonds sharply higher.  Crude oil
stormed higher, grains and soybeans rose, precious metals appeared
to reverse back up.  Will most of those be one-day wonders
knee-jerk reactions to the day's news?  Or are they the first
signs of something else?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should
be ready to ...



Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke
Last Updated on Monday, 04 December 2017 08:33
 
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