October 2021 Editors Comments

Wednesday, 01 September 2021 09:31 Melissa Moore
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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Forex: this 230-page volume features seasonal analysis for AD, BP, CD, DX, EU, JY, MP, NE, SF;  with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each and for spreads among them; includes 236 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

Historical Brent:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.

Physical Commodities

Consolidation?  The old CRB Index had an inside month in August.  After making a new high in July up to 221.25 and closing at 218.08, the Index dropped to 206.88 testing the July low of 204.94.  It then closed ever so slightly higher for the month of August at 218.17.

It closed above its 50-day moving average (dma) of 213.84 and 200-dma at 192.33.  Doing so, the 50-week ma widened its spread over the 200-week ma.

Several indicators suggest both the daily and weekly charts are overbought.  But which is "transitory" the overbought condition or the trend?

In this hardcopy report, note the charts of the CRB-BLS Commodity Index, which is based more on basic commodity cash markets than those traded in futures.  The monthly shows the Index to be barely below the at least 30-year high made in 2011.

The petroleum complex seems to be consolidating, but natural gas may well have made a major low.  Grains and soy may be softening modestly going into corn and soybean harvest.  Are metals consolidating?  What about softs markets such as coffee?

And what about the US dollar?  Is the FED monetizing US government debt?

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 September 2021 10:32