September 2021 Editors Comments

Thursday, 05 August 2021 05:44 Melissa Moore
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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Brent: this 124-page volume is a perfect complement to the Historical Energy report released just prior (and discussed below); features seasonal analysis of Brent crude oil, the international standard traded on the ICE, and also gasoil; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and also several spreads, including between ICE Brent and NYMEX crude light; best of all, 74 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.

Physical Commodities

Well, that was a bullish surprise!

The CRB Index ended June at a new +5-year high of 213.39, with both daily and weekly indicators overbought and diverging (price up, indicator
not confirming new high).  But after correcting and testing its 50-day moving average, it charged higher again.

With 250 being a 40% retracement from the multi-decade low of 101 in 202 to the all-time high of 474 in 2008, the CRB reached a high in July of 221 and closed the month at 218.  In doing so, that close helped the 50-week moving average cross over above the 200-week the so-called Golden Cross.

Now what?  Often after a Golden Cross, the market will correct back to the confluence of the moving averages (near 180).  With both daily and weekly charts of the CRB already overbought and diverging for weeks, one might finally expect a signficant correction.  And indeed the month of August started off with crude oil dumping $3 intraday.

But gold was looking higher.  Corn and wheat, both of which tend to decline in August, were both looking higher.  Bonds were are considerably stronger which suggests weak economic growth with a potentially lower US dollar.

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

 


Last Updated on Thursday, 05 August 2021 05:48