August 2021 Editors Comments

Tuesday, 27 July 2021 04:26 Melissa Moore
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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Brent: this 124-page volume is a perfect complement to the Historical Energy report released just prior (and discussed below); features seasonal analysis of Brent crude oil, the international standard traded on the ICE, and also gasoil; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and also several spreads, including between ICE Brent and NYMEX crude light; best of all, 74 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

Well that was a modest correction!

Closing May at 206 with a high of 207, the old CRB Index was overbought on both daily and weekly time frames and had been for some time.  The typical result?  A month or more of correction.

But, no!  Despite lumber, one of the earliest and most spectacular leaders, falling from $1711 in May down to as low as $705 on the last day of June, the CRB itself continued to new highs above 212 the highest since 2015.  In fact, on the last day of June, corn closed up the 40-cent limit, soybeans up 80, wheat up 34.  Metals, which had been suffering, all closed higher (including palladium up $105), as did all the energies.

And that was with the US dollar index up 0.40!

Remember your CRB history.  The index peaked in June 2008 at 474.  The Elliott fifth wave climaxed at 101 last April.  Like a compressed spring, it required only 14 months to retrace 30% of a 12-year downtrend.

Now what?  There is the old saying in commodities that the cure for high prices is high prices.  But what is high?  The stock market has continued to roll merrily along since 2009 a twelve-year bull market that took the S&P500 from 667 to now test 4300.

So will this commodity inflation be transitory?

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Tuesday, 27 July 2021 04:37