July 2021 Editors Comments

Thursday, 03 June 2021 12:00 Melissa Moore
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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.


Recently published:

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities


The CRB more than doubled in 13 months!?!

The pandemic panic collapsed the old CRB Index to a far more than 20-year low last April when it traded at 101.48.  This May, it reached as high as 209.52 the highest in 6 years.

Of course, corn traded 244% of its low; soybeans more than doubled; wheat rose 64%.  Crude traded 1,000% of its low and that is if you ignore its one-day trade at -$40.32 for immediate delivery!  Copper traded 248% as high a new at least multi-decade high!  Lumber went from $252 to $1,711.

They will not keep up that pace.  In fact, many may well decline now.  But is this only transitory inflation?  Is it like trying to go from 0 to 60 by stomping on the accelerator from a standing stop and having the tires spin and then suddenly gain traction?  Is it only the result of supply chain disruptions?

Or is there something else at work?  Have market-driven interest rates made a secular bottom?  Has the US dollar entered a long-term bear market?  Will crop problems more often crop up around the world?  Will global tensions continue to rise?  Will the stock market go up forever?

What is gold trying to say?

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Sunday, 04 July 2021 11:04