June 2021 Editors Comments

Monday, 03 May 2021 05:03 Melissa Moore
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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:


2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

Well, that was a short-lived correction.  After closing March well below its high, the CRB needed barely a week more before charging to a new high.

After closing March at about 185, the Index "plunged" to a low of 183 - and then roared higher up to 202.41 and closed April at 199.76.  Remember that the all-time high was struck in 2008 at 473.97.  It then worked its way lower in three fairly distinct legs.  By the April 2020 pandemic panic low, it had lost more than 78% to trade at 101.48!

Since then it has essentially doubled.  Corn, with a low of $3.01 last April, saw May 21 Corn trade at least as high as $7.58 in the overnight market before the first business day of May.  Soybeans, which traded at $8.08 last April, traded at $16.08 in April 2021.

Nearby crude oil (ignoring the deliverable price of -$40/barrel in April 2020), which traded at $6.68, reached the mid to upper $60s.  Copper and lumber,
essential building materials in the housing industry, traded above $4.55 and $1,500, respectively!

The 200-205 area on the CRB chart suggests heavy resistance, and both daily and weekly charts are overbought.  But the money continues to pour and interest rates remain near 0.

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 03 May 2021 05:19