April 2021 Editors Comments

Monday, 01 March 2021 08:43 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year!

Hottest off the press:

2021 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads:  this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.

Physical Commodities

Wow!  And whoa!

After a pandemic-driven multi-decade low in April 2020 at 101.48, the CRB Index soared to 154.54 (53 points) by the first week of September.  It consolidated through October, bumping along the underside of the 50-week moving average and trading back down to 142.70.  But in November it broke out of that bull flag and soared again into the next-to-last day of February, reaching 196.15 (another 53 points!)  But markets got hit hard the last day, with the index closing at 190.43.

Believe it or not, even with that sell-off, that close was above all of 2019 and 2020!

So, time for another correction?  The 50-dma is 176.42, the 200-dma at 153.59.  Was that a shot across the bow?  There is much discussion going around about whether commodities have entered another supercycle, perhaps like the 1970s.

Either way, trading opportunities are eye-opening.  Gold, of course, reached an all-time high in August but was $370 lower in late February.  Copper is not far off its 10-year high.  Lumber has soared to above $1,000/mbf.  Soybeans and corn are at 9-year highs.

And what abut the US dollar?

What else can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 01 March 2021 08:46