March 2021 Editors Comments

Monday, 01 February 2021 05:44 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year!

Hottest off the press:

2021 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads:  this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.

Physical Commodities

New macro uptrend or large-degree correction?

After the pandemic low in April at 101.48, the old CRB has continued to trend higher into January, reaching 176.85 a 74% move in nine months.  Granted, that low was compressed.  But 74%?

Yes, gold and silver soared, with gold reaching a new all-time high at $2,089.  But copper Dr. Copper rose from $1.97 in March to as high as $3.73 in January.  Crude oil even ignoring the trade into negativity at -$40.32!!! rose from $6.68 to $53.87.

Among the big and surprising winners were soybeans and corn.  China apparently took advantage of low prices and rebuilt grain reserves as she tries to rebuild her hog herd.  Soybeans led, trading from $8.08 to as high as $14.36.  Corn went along from $3.01 to $5.53.  And both with large overhang supply.

So, the argument of the day is whether to expect inflation or deflation or both?  Both sides have valid points.  The inflation side says the US dollar has entered a new phase of weakness because of low interest rates and money printing.  The opposing side says the velocity of money cannot rise because of the drag from enormous and growing debt and the probability of a weakening economy even if the virus is soon contained.

So, what can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 01 February 2021 05:50