November 2020 Editors Comments

Thursday, 15 October 2020 05:58 Melissa Moore
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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Forex:
this 218-page volume features seasonal analysis of the Australian, Canadian, New Zealand, and US dollars, the British pound, Japanese yen, EuroFX, Swiss franc, and Mexican Peso; weekly charts for each delivery month; several inter-market spreads; best of all, 236 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2020 Historical Brent: the perfect complement to 2020 Historical Energy highlighted immediately below, this 220-page volume features seasonal analysis for Brent Crude - upon which much of the world's oil is priced - and gasoil; with 74 trading strategies, including spreads between crude light and Brent crude.

2020 Historical Energy: this 280-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including product and crack spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

CRB & Physical Commodities

After posting a multi-year (-decade?) low of 101.48 in mid April as the virus smashed markets, the CRB (available at stockcharts.com) rose to as high as 154.65 on the last day of August.  Is that 50% increase in less than five months a precursor?  The initial surge out of a major low?

The index pulled back into September to 144.59 and then coiled between those two levels.  As it did so, the 50-dma crossed above the 200-dma late in the month.  After a final washout(?) dip on the next-to-last day of September, the index closed strong on the last day as crude oil and some of the metals closed higher and grains soared.  And that with the weekly RSI barely above 50!

Granted, this has been an aberrant year.  But how often have corn and soybeans after a good growing season rally into a harvest during good weather?  Did the USDA Grain Stocks report suggest demand for corn, wheat, and soybeans was much better than the market assumed?  Does that foretell a brighter future?

Is it about the dollar?  Will the CRB now embark on a multi-year uptrend?  Gold made an all-time high appears to be consolidating.  Crude oil may struggle, but has natural gas made a long-term low?

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 15 October 2020 06:04