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Home Editors Comments September 2020 Editors Comments

September 2020 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Energy: this 280-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including product and crack spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

CRB & Physical Commodities

No inflation?  A glance at the Bloomberg Commodity Index, suggests that deflation is old news.  Since the high in July 2008 at 238.52, there has been disinflation.  In fact, from September 2015 through January 2020, this Index traded only 72-92.

Then came the pandemic and fears of deflation.  In fact, the Index collpsed down to 58.87 in April the lowest since June 1975.  The nearby crude oil contract actually traded at -$40/barrel just 2 days before its Last Trading Day!  Now that might qualify as disinflation!

But the most active gold contract made an all-time high above $2,000 on the last day of July the month before gold normally begins a seasonal rally into the fourth quarter.

Corn and soybeans have been soft during July, but both usually begin to decline into harvest.  Maybe they made pre-harvest lows already?

In fact, the Index rose to as high as 69.09 in July a 17% increase from its low.  Granted, if unemployment remains high and the economy slack, there will be certain price pressures.  But monetary and fiscal stimuli?

And what about the US dollar?

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 August 2020 04:21  
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