July 2020 Editors Comments

Monday, 01 June 2020 15:37 Melissa Moore
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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

Whew!  Was that it?

The Bloomberg (DJ-UBS) Commodity Index (with weekly and monthly charts updated daily at https://www.mrci.com/client/djubs.php) is perhaps the closest readily available to the old CRB Index.  In 2008, it reached as high as 238.52.  This past April, it traded at 58.87 less than 25% of that high and its lowest low since July 1975.

Will that prove to be a historic low?  In March it had made a slightly higher low and bounced modestly.  But when it returned in April and made its new (final?) low, it spent the next five weeks recovering to close out May at 64.41.  That confirms nothing yet, other than we now have a low of some significance with which to work and by which to judge future market behavior.

Will seasonal behavior return to markets?  Crops will have growing seasons and harvests.  Energies will face summer and winter weather.  Interest rates and currencies will continue to be influenced by fiscal years.

But have markets become too skewed by once-in-a-lifetime health, economic, political, monetary, and fiscal factors?  Are they too distorted to trade "normally"?  With so many trillions of dollars, euros, yen,
etc., shoved into economies world-wide ...

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Monday, 01 June 2020 15:42