May 2020 Editors Comments

Thursday, 02 April 2020 02:29 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities



We will keep our comments to a minimum this month, given that the world and its financial markets seem to change more dramatically each day than they might have in a year not long ago.  What seems applicable today may no longer be so tomorrow - let alone in a month or two.

We do note, however, that some commodity indices, such as the Bloomberg (DJ-UBS) Commodity Index, updated daily for subscribers at MRCI Online, made new multi-decade lows - and decisively so.  For  example, the aforementioned DJ-UBS index, similar to the CRB, fell to its lowest low since 1975 - and put that low in danger!

Crude oil is struggling to hold $20.  But natural gas has kept eroding.  And gasoline?  There is talk of 99-cent gasoline coming to the Midwest!  Is it appropriate that hogs and cattle closed limit down on April Fool's Day?  And that soybeans were 15-23 cents lower?  Wheat 17?  Corn 5-10?

Copper and platinum got smashed in March - and that despite platinum miners in South Africa closing mines and declaring force majeure.  Investors ran for the safety of bonds - with 10-year yields less than 1%!

And the US dollar?  First it collapsed 5% in two weeks, then it ran up 9% in two weeks, only to fall back to where it started.  Markets are manic, so be careful out there.

Still, maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 02 April 2020 02:34