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Home Editors Comments April 2020 Editors Comments

April 2020 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Wow!!!  An historic waterfall decline across the board in stocks, commodities, and interest rates at the end of February smashed commodity indices to multi-year lows!  Did/will panic set bottoms?

Consider the Bloomberg (DJS-UBS) Commodity Index, updated daily at MRCI Online, whose subgroup weights include about 37% energies, 28% agriculture, 17% industrial and 13% precious metals, and nearly 6% livestock.  This index closed February at the lowest low in more than 40 years!

Now what?  During those last 40 years, the index always found support whenever it dropped into the range 71-75.  It just closed at 70.97. Does that set up rally potential or suggest the trend will continue lower still?  On the first day of March, gold was up $30, crude oil up $2, grains and soybeans up modestly, and cattle up limit.

Many market analysts anticipate that central banks around the world, including the US FED, will try to rescue economies and markets by lowering interest rates and flooding economies with money. So ...

... what about the dollar?  Could that trigger a currency war?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Friday, 20 March 2020 05:13  

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