March 2020 Editors Comments

Tuesday, 04 February 2020 06:49 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

Historical Lumber: this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities


The CRB Index ended the year 2019 at 185.79 not far off the high for the year of 189.68 made in April.  On the second day of 2020, it traded up to 187.87.

Only to collapse!  It closed January at 170.31 a monthly loss of more than 8%!  Along the way, it left 5 gaps on its daily chart and 2 on the weekly!  The low at 169.88 was made on the last day of the month.  That was not far off the 2019 low of 167.38 and the 2018 low of 168.21.

Of course, the presumptive cause was China's coronavirus and its potential to disrupt world trade with the world's second largest economy.  Crude oil collapsed almost $10 month-to-month 16%!  Grains and oilseeds fell hard, despite a supposed US-China trade agreement.  Hogs traded 14% lower just in the last 3 days of the month.  Natural gas continued to erode.

It is now grossly oversold on daily indicators such as RSI and MACD.  If if! it holds here and turns up, that could mark a 3-year equilibrium low.  If so, beware commodity inflation.  Is that what gold has been suggesting?  What are bonds trying to say?

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 February 2020 06:52