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Home Editors Comments February 2020 Editors Comments

February 2020 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year! Hottest off the press.......

2019 Historical Indices:  this 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Jailbreak?  Pivotal turning point?

The venerable CRB Index has come alive!!  On the day before Christmas, it closed at its highest since April!

It now well above its 50-dma, which itself is in bullish alignment above the 200-dma.  It is also above its 50-week ma, and has now closed above its 200-week ma - although the latter is still above the former.

To recap, the index made a double weekly bottom in December '18-January '19 at 168.21-168.26, its 2019 high at 189.68, and then a triple weekly bottom at 167.38-167.19 - an equilibrium sequence.  It has since been working slowly higher to approach its 2019 high.

What has been the driver?  Grains, metals, energies have all strengthened - and the US dollar weakened.

Are gold, silver, and platinum ready to make a jailbreak of their own?  Rather than trend lower as some analysts had suggested, they have turned up to retest recent highs.  If they breach the latter, is it a big bull market?  Why is crude oil back above $60?  Can natural gas go any lower - or is ready to rise, also?  Have grains and soybeans made multi-month or even multi-year lows?

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 02 January 2020 09:32  

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