January 2020 Editors Comments

Tuesday, 03 December 2019 12:39 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Indices this 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Thud again!

After the commodity CRB Index closed October at 176.89, it traded higher in November, reaching 182.44.  That was well above the 50-day moving average (dma, currently 177.44) and even the 200-dma (178.85). 
However, it collapsed on the last day of the month to make a new monthly low (176.54) and lower monthly close (176.66).  Ugh!

What happened?  Grains, metals, energies all slumped.  But all three complexes have tended to rise from December into January and beyond.  So December will be a good test.

For example, all three members of the petroleum complex crude, gasoline, heating oil - have tended to set a significant low in or by mid December after refiners dump crude and its products to avoid year-end states taxes.  Refiners then need to replenish depleted crude stocks, heating oil consumption continues high, and gasoline values begin slowly to rise.  Gold, silver, platinum, and copper have usually rallied at least into February.  Corn, soybeans, and cotton tend to stage multi-month post-harvest recoveries.

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 December 2019 12:45