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Home Editors Comments December 2019 Editors Comments

December 2019 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Indices

This 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.

Recently published:

2019 Historical Metals

This 84-page volume contains seasonal analysis of gold, silver, copper, and platinum, including gold/silver spreads and gold/platinum spreads; with 72 seasonal and spread trading strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Boo!  A higher close?  With harvest pressure?  With metals and energies struggling?

Yes, the CRB Index did indeed close higher on Halloween than at the end of September 176.89 versus 173.94.  In itself, that may seem irrelevant.  And maybe it is.

But the high for the month tested the 200-dma and the 50-week ma.  The weekly chart shows that, since June 2017, the CRB has made seven 7! weekly lows between 166.48 and 168.26.

Does that suggest a long-term bottom is forming?  If so, does that then suggest inflation, at least commodity inflation, is bubbling?

Corn and soybean harvest will soon be over, relieving immediate supply pressures.  Crude oil and products remain in a range.  Is long-term consolidation taking place?  Members of the softs complexhave been beaten to a pulp already.  Livestock prices are high but not falling and China, where pork is a primary meat, is seeing its hog herds devastated by disease.  Gold, silver, and platinum are perky at worst.

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Saturday, 02 November 2019 17:10  

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