September 2019 Editors Comments

Friday, 02 August 2019 08:17 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Forex: this 236-page volume contains seasonal analysis of AD, BP, CD, USD, EU, JY, MP, NZ, and SF futures; seasonal patterns for each delivery month and intermarket spreads; includes 236 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2019 Brent Crude: the perfect complement to the 2019 Historical Energy report (see below), this 120-page volume contains seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil and gasoil; with 68 seasonal and spread strategies, including Brent/Crude Light spreads.

2019 Historical Energy: this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas; includes seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several spreads against each; with product and crack spreads; best of all, 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Oh, my!  After closing June at 181.04, the CRB closed July at only 178.53 barely hugging its 50-dma at 178.41.  Then on August 1, the president announced another round of tariffs on Chinese imports to begin Sepember 1.  Crude oil plunged almost $5/barrel intraday, palladium (although not a component) was more than $100/ounce lower, grains dropped sharply.

The CRB has been coiling since its last major low in June 2017, with a progression of lower interim highs and higher interim lows.  Will this early August debacle force a downside breakout?

Normally NORMALLY corn and soybeans could be expected to generally decline into harvest now.  But how much corn acreage and and both corn and soybean yield will be lost due to late planting?  What will the August USDA reports say?  Will turmoil in the Middle East support crude. even as that market prepares to enter the so-called shoulder season?  Will natural gas continue to weaken into hurricane season?

Gold seems to be want to go higher after trading at 6-year highs!  Silver broke out of a 2-year double bottom.  Bonds soared to a 2-year high as the yield curve inverted.  Recesssionary warnings?

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Friday, 02 August 2019 08:21