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Home Editors Comments August 2019 Editors Comments

August 2019 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Brent Crude: the perfect complement to the 2019 Historical Energy report (see below), this 120-page volume contains seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil and gasoil; with 68 seasonal and spread strategies, including Brent/Crude Light spreads.

Recently published:

2019 Historical Energy: this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas; includes seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several spreads against each; with product and crack spreads; best of all, 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

2019 Historical Soybean Complex: a 174-page volume containing seasonal analysis for soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; includes seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; 128 seasonal, spread, product, crush strategies.

2019 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat KC, CBOT, and MGE; 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Mini-boom to bust?

The CRB closed May at a disappointing 175.36.  Within days it had traded down to 172.02.  But then grains took off, gold soared, and crude oil rallied.  On the last day of the month, the venerable Index made its high for the month at 183.26 well above its 50-dma at 179.61 and just below its 200-dma at 183.77.

But then the bottom dropped out.  With wheat lower, corn trading limit down, gold having lost its momentum, and crude oil down almost $1, the CRB reversed to close lower in an outside day.

On July 1, gold was down $20, wheat 15-20 cents, corn about 10, beans nearly 15.  Crude struggled but the dollar was sharply higher.

Has the potential commodities recovery already gone bust?  Certainly heavy chart resistance lies just overhead, with the 50-week ma at 184.93 and now below the 200-week at 185.79.

But, for example, the USDA report of June 28 were confusing - if not confused!  When will we get accurate acreage and yield numbers?  How much later will the delayed corn crop pollinate?

Will the dollar rally of July 1 hold?  Or was it the proverbial "dead cat bounce"?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 02 July 2019 09:28  

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