July 2019 Editors Comments

Monday, 03 June 2019 10:57 Melissa Moore
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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press...

1.  2019 Historical Energy: this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas; includes seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several spreads against each; with product and crack spreads; best of all, 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

2.  2019 Historical Softs: this 156-page volume contains seasonal analysis for coffee, cocoa, cotton, orange juice, sugar, rough rice; 83 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

3.  2019 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume containing seasonal analysis for soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; includes seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; 128 seasonal, spread, product, crush strategies.

4.  2019 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat KC, CBOT, and MGE; 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.


CRB & Physical Commodities


Start of a new downtrend - or retesting a breakaway gap?

The CRB Index closed April at 184.25.  The high for May - on the first day of the month! - was only 184.11.  The May low - on the last day of the month! - was 175.32, just a 4 measly ticks lower than the close for May.

That would normally have terribly bearish implications - and maybe it does again.  Energies were largely responsible, with crude oil declining from its April high above $66 to its May close at only $53.30.

But previously bearish-in-the-extreme grains, primarily wheat and corn, took off.  Will it be a short-lived event?  As of May 26, only 58% of the US corn crop was planted versus the 5-year average of 90%.  Soybeans were also behind, with only 29% planted versus the average of 66%.  All may still work out well.  But, if not, it sets up an unexpectedly explosive - and inflationary - situation.  Uncertainty will rule for weeks.

And the US dollar dropped hard to end May and begin June.  Is there more to come?  The CRB?  Just below the May close of 175.36 was a gap left between 12/31/18 and 1/2/19 at 174.19 - 174.36.  Retesting a bullish breakaway gap perhaps?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Thursday, 06 June 2019 05:43