May 2019 Editors Comments

Monday, 01 April 2019 17:06 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press...

1.  2019 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat KC, CBOT, and MGE; 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

2.  2019 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, and also live/feeder cattle spreads; historical daily charts; cash prices at several locations; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

3.  2019 Historical Lean Hogs & Hog/Cattle Spreads:  a 126-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including hog/cattle spreads; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Well, that's some improvement.  The CRB Index closed February at 182.75.  March closed at 183.75, with a higher monthly high and low.

The double bottom in December/January near 168 (which may ultimately be a double, higher bottom with its 2017 low near 166) has now generated a move to almost 186, the high of March.  Its close for the month leaves it between its 50-day moving average (dma) at 181.51 and its 200-dma at 187.66.  It is also below its weekly moving averages, but its 50-week ma at 189.98 is above its 200-week ma at 187.75 (although both are declining.)

Now what?  Crude oil and gasoline have both been strong, with crude exceeding $61.50 on the first day of April.  'Tis the season for driving conditions to improve, daily consumption of gasoline to rise, and the industry to accumulate inventories of gasoline even as it replenishes depleged stocks of heating oil.  Natural gas has held its own.  Corn and soybeans have yet to be planted and will thus be subject to both planting and growing weather conditions for months.  Some analysts believe winter wheat acreage is the lowest in a century.

What if US-China trade talks unleash Chinese buying?  What if the US dollar tumbles?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 01 April 2019 17:12