April 2019 Editors Comments

Tuesday, 05 March 2019 08:04 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat KC, CBOT, and MGE; 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

2019 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, and also live/feeder cattle spreads; historical daily charts; cash prices at several locations; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2019 Historical Lean Hogs & Hog/Cattle Spreads:  a 126-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including hog/cattle spreads; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Follow through!!!  After closing December at an 18-month low near 170, the CRB Index completed a December/January double bottom at 168 and reversed to close January at about 180.  Between mid January and mid February, the Index traded in a bull flag formation from which it then broke out to trade as high as 185 before closing Februaryat 183.  From that high it may now be pulling back to retest its flag breakout near 180 and/or its 50-day moving average, currently near 178 -but slowly beginning to rise.

The question now before us then is whether a pullback will hold 178-180.  If so, the CRB may be building an inverted head-and-shoulders bottom.  If so, the head would be 168 and the neckline at 185.

What could be bullish that might drive the Index higher?  Wheat will soon emerge from dormancy and be vulnerable, with winter wheat acreage thought to be at a 100-year low.  US corn, soybeans, and cotton have yet to be planted.  What about energy, the most consequential complex?  Is natural gas building a long-term base?  What will Mideast crude oil suppliers do?  Will US/Chinese trade talks resolve tariff and trade issues?

And perhaps of greatest import, what will the US dollar do?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 05 March 2019 08:09