March 2019 Editors Comments

Monday, 04 February 2019 09:45 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, and also live/feeder cattle spreads; historical daily charts; cash prices at several locations; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2019 Historical Lean Hogs & Hog/Cattle Spreads:  a 126-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including hog/cattle spreads; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.

CRB & Physical Commodities

What a difference a month might make!  The CRB Index ended the year at 169.80 not far off its 18-month low of 166.48.  Those looking for a collapse through that low were immediately disappointed.

The Index had made a high in May at 206.95, fell, rallied to a new high in October at 201.72.  But as the stock market, so too did the CRB.  At the end of 2018, it looked bleak for commodities.

But within about a week over the transition to a new year, the Index made daily lows of 168.21, 168.37 and then 168.26 a sequence suggesting equilibrium.  That may seem like minutiae, but we are looking for hints to whether disinflationary markets have evolved into inflationary ones.

That January then reversed December adds to mounting evidence offered by a possible turn downward it the US dollar, for example, which itself is reinforced by stronger gold prices.  Energy markets are again flickering with potential.  If/when US-China tariff talks reach an agreement, soybeans and corn may rally, at least modestly.  US wheat acreage, to be estimated February 8 in a release delayed by government shutdown, could be historically low.  What if weather continues to be erratic?  Could agricultural production be at risk?  Maybe we better
be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 04 February 2019 09:49