January 2019 Editors Comments

Tuesday, 04 December 2018 08:13 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press......

2018 Historical Indices: a 186-page volume that arrives just in time for the "best six months of the year," with contract-specific seasonal patterns and weekly charts for domestic indices S&P500, S&P Midcap 400, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, DJIA and several international markets; with 62 domestic and 108 international seasonal strategies.

Recently published......

2018 Historical Interest Rates: a 222-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month of US financial instruments such as 30-yr bonds, 2-, 5-, and 10-yr T-notes,
and Eurodollars; also seasonal analysis of several international debt instruments and of US Treasury spreads in exchange-recognized ratios; complete with 206 seasonal and spread strategies.

2018 Historical Forex: a 218-page volume with seasonal analysis of A$, C$, Br-pound, euros, J-yen, Sw-franc, Mexican peso, New Zealand $, and the US$ Index; contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts; with 78 seasonal and 158 spread strategies.

2018 Historical Energy: this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; includes 190 seasonal, spread (both intra- and intermarket), and crack strategies.

2018 Historical Brent: this 124-page volume contains seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil (used by most of the world for pricing crude) and gasoil (similar to heating oil); with 74 seasonal and spread strategies, including Brent vs. crude light.

2018 Historical Softs: this 154-page volume contains seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar, orange juice, and rice; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Ugh...November was miserable.  After a promising beginning to the year, the CRB broke down to the lowest low since August 2017.

What happened?  The US$ was strong.  Crude oil crashed from almost $77 at the beginning of October to trade below $50 at the end of November.  Tariff wars kept soybeans at or near their lows, holding down wheat and corn.  All metals with the exception of non-CRB component palladium declined back toward lows.

How bad was the CRB itself?  From the early October high of 201.72, the close for that month was 190.97.  The November high was 193.66, but the low was 178.79 just below the November close of 181.74.

The good news?  The daily chart shows divergence with the RSI, and its MACD is very low.  The weekly chart suggests a reversal upward for the last week of November.  On the first day of December, after tariff pressures eased (modestly? temporarily?), all metals, rose, crude oil closed up well over $2, with products higher Several softs markets were up.  Was that a turn?

Also of note, the 10-yr to 2-yr yield curve was last seen flattening back toward its low of 18 basis points.  Will it invert?

And what about the dollar?  

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Wednesday, 05 December 2018 10:21