December 2018 Editors Comments

Tuesday, 27 November 2018 08:16 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press......

2018 Historical Indices: a 186-page volume that arrives just in time for the "best six months of the year," with contract-specific seasonal patterns and weekly charts for domestic indices S&P500, S&P Midcap 400, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, DJIA and several international markets; with 62 domestic and 108 international seasonal strategies.

Recently published......

2018 Historical Interest Rates: a 222-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month of US financial instruments such as 30-yr bonds, 2-, 5-, and 10-yr T-notes,
and Eurodollars; also seasonal analysis of several international debt instruments and of US Treasury spreads in exchange-recognized ratios; complete with 206 seasonal and spread strategies.

2018 Historical Forex: a 218-page volume with seasonal analysis of A$, C$, Br-pound, euros, J-yen, Sw-franc, Mexican peso, New Zealand $, and the US$ Index; contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts; with 78 seasonal and 158 spread strategies.

2018 Historical Energy: this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; includes 190 seasonal, spread (both intra- and intermarket), and crack strategies.

2018 Historical Brent: this 124-page volume contains seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil (used by most of the world for pricing crude) and gasoil (similar to heating oil); with 74 seasonal and spread strategies, including Brent vs. crude light.

2018 Historical Softs: this 154-page volume contains seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar, orange juice, and rice; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

CRB & Physical Commodities

As of October 23, the month that began so well for the CRB Index is in danger of failing.  After September closed at 195.16, October raced to its high of 201.72 in 3 days.  The low?  194.37 on October 23, with markets soft the day after.  That leaves the index caught between the 50-dma at 193.95 and the 200-dma at 196.25.  The 50 is below the 200, but both are rising.

The 50-wma at 195.25 remains above the 200-wma at 192.27, with the 50-wma rising.  So, closing above the October high (201.72) would be bullish, closing above the May high (206.95) would be very bullish.  Closing below the August low (186.74) would be bearish.

Corn and soybeans tend to enjoy post-harvest rallies but have been caught in ranges of 330-375 and 790-900 since mid June.  CBOT wheat has been in a range of about 500-525 for 6 weeks.  Closes above 1245 in gold and 15.00 in silver would be moderately bullish.  Is copper forming a massive head-and-shoulders bottom, with a potential head at 255 and neckline at 287?

What about coffee and sugar, 35% and 41% higher in barely a month?  Natural gas broke higher from a 7-month range.  Crucial levels in crude oil are the 76.90 high and the August  low of 64.43.  And what about the US dollar, and tariffs, and politics, and ...?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 27 November 2018 08:23