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Home Editors Comments November 2018 Editors Comments

November 2018 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Metals: this 84-page volume analyzes gold, silver, copper, platinum with seasonal patterns and weekly charts; presents 72 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2018 Historical Interest Rates:  a 222-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for US financial instruments such as 30-yr bonds, 2-, 5-, and 10-yr T-notes, and Eurodollars; also seasonal analysis of several international debt instruments and of US Treasury spreads in exchange-recognized ratios; with 206 seasonal and spread strategies.

2018 Historical Forex:  a 218-page volume with seasonal analysis of A$, C$, Br-pound, euros, J-yen, Sw-franc, Mexican peso, New Zealand $, and the US$ Index; contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts; with 78 seasonal and 158 spread strategies.

2018 Historical Energy:  this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; includes 190 seasonal, spread (both intra- and intermarket), and crack strategies.

2018 Historical Brent:  this 124-page volume contains seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil and gasoil (similar to heating oil); with 74 seasonal and spread strategies, including Brent vs. crude light.

CRB & Physical Commodities

As bad as August looked for the CRB Index, September may have been almost as good.  The CRB closed August at 192.96 but September at 195.16.

A higher monthly close, yes.  But the chart shows more.  Although the 50dma (192.19) is below the 200dma (195.56), the index is poking at the 200-dma.  Better still, and perhpas surprisingly, the rising 50-week ma (194.51) crossed over the still declining 200-week ma (193.18) during September!

Now what?  Gold, silver, platinum, and copper are still grossly oversold, and four tend to rise into winter.

Wheat harvest is complete.  Corn and soybean harvests are underway, but prices for both typically make their seasonal low during early October.  Soybeans may have already made theirs, and corn may also have made its low then, although the nearby weekly chart made its low in June!  despite tariffs, a new aggreement with Canada and Mexico may help prices.  Further, US officials in Beijing reportedly see Chinese corn supplies ending 2018-19 at the tightest in 50 years!

Crude oil prices continue to rise, exceeding $75 on October 1.  Exports from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya lag.

And the US dollar?  

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Wednesday, 31 October 2018 07:42  

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