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Home Editors Comments October 2018 Editors Comments

October 2018 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Forex:  a 218-page volume with seasonal analysis for A$, C$, Br-pound, euros, J-yen, Sw-franc, Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar, and the US dollar index; contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts; with 78 seasonal strategies and 158 spread strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities


Sigh ... tariffs, now emerging markets.  What next?

After trading to a 3-year high in May at 206.95, the CRB fell to as low as 186.74 in mid August.  As it did, it fell below the 50-day ma (dma) which fell below the 200-dma.  By the end of the month, it did retrace back up to 193.63 in a retest of the 50-dma at 193.42 (on August 31) but closed lower for the month at 192.12.

As ugly as is the daily chart, the weekly holds out some hope.  The rising 50-week ma - 193.93 - is converging with the declining 200-week ma at 194.24.

Unfortunately, September got off to an ugly start.  Allegedly precious metals got hit hard as the US dollar rose, with silver making a new low for the move only 40 cents off its 9-year low.  Coffee made a 12-year low.  Wheat got hammered.  Crude oil was higher but only because a weak hurricane approached the US Gulf Coast.

Discouraging sentiment.  Lots of supply in several markets.  Strong US dollar.  Money still flowing into stock markets.

Can it get worse for commodities?  Of course.  But will it?  For how long can the US dollar remain strong?  How long can US stocks continue to climb without a significant correction?  If stocks do correct, will commodities rally?  Or will they be too depressed?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Wednesday, 03 October 2018 12:34  
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