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Home Editors Comments September 2018 Editors Comments

September 2018 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Energy:  this 282-page volume contains
seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural
gas; includes 190 seasonal, spread (both intra- and intermarket),
and crack strategies for year-round.

2018 Historical Brent:  this 124-page volume contains
seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil (used by most of the world for
pricing crude) and gasoil (similar to heating oil); with 74 seasonal
and spread strategies, including Brent vs. crude light.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Well, July was a bust.  Will August be better?

Many commodities/markets tend to be weak in summer.  Wheat supplies
are bulging from harvest, corn pollinates, and soybeans will soon
be made.  Gasoline consumption is peaking, but heating oil is in little
demand.  Natural gas is being consumed in hot-weather regions, but
prices decline as stocks are liquidated. 
Precious metals suffer their own summer doldrums.

But winter wheat harvest is now over.  Did corn and soybeans already
make their lows from tariff-related selling?  Crude oil is still under
pressure, unable to decisively overcome resistance at $70.

The CRB Index made its last significant low near 167 in June 2017.  Since
then, it trended higher, smashed through a double top around 196,
and in May reached almost 207.  It then pulled back to as low as 190 in mid July before
ending the month at 194.53.

But the 50-day moving average (dma) at 197.60 is above the 200dma
at 194.80.  The pullback into mid July tested successfully so
far the rising 50-week ma.  Resistance is being offered
at the declining 200-week ma, which is close to converging with the
50-week.

Will there soon be a breakout from this converging triangle.  Which
way?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Friday, 03 August 2018 10:44  
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