February 2018 Editors Comments

Wednesday, 03 January 2018 08:08 Melissa Moore
Print

CRB & Physical Commodities

Is it finally time?  Or just another head fake?

After making its all-time high in 2011, the CRB Index has been declining or correcting or ? It has made a couple stabs at establishing a bottom only to be followed by another decline to new lows.

But in January/February 2016, it made a double bottom at just below 155.  It then rose to about 195, exceeded and then retested its 50-week moving average (wma), and rose again into early 2017 only to find resistance a second time at 195.  "Disappointed," it fell to well below its 50-wma and appeared ready to make more new lows.

But this past June it instead held 167.  It turned up again, exceeded its 50-wma, but in November found resistance at 193.  It fell again.

But this time it retested its 50-wma successfully - and reversed back up to end the year at 194.  On the first day of 2018, it closed at nearly 195.

On the daily chart, it is now "overbought."  And back to major resistance.  Can it blow through?  Will it decline again?  Or will it back off, and then go?

Will we now see inflation in 2018 ... and beyond?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke