October 2017 Editors Comments

Friday, 01 September 2017 09:05 Melissa Moore

Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Interest Rates: this 222-page volume of seasonal analysis for not only US Treasury bonds and notes and Eurodollars but also several international sovereign debt instruments; with 206 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas; also introduces ratio spreads recognized by US exchanges for margin purposes.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Forex:  this 207-page volume contains seasonal analysis for the US dollar index; Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars; British pounds; eurocurrencies; Mexican pesos; Japanese yen; and Swiss francs; includes 78 seasonal and 158 spread strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Good news/bad news (depends on perspective).  The bad news (for bulls) was that August disappointed.  The CRB Index (stockcharts.com, Free Charts, type in $CRB in the spot for Create
a Sharp Chart) had rallied off a significant low in June but fell in August.

But it was not even a 50% retracement, and it was a retest of the 50-day moving average.  The Index bounced from there, but pulled back again late in the month as grains continued lower and energies softened.

But the last day of August may have been telling.  Granted, volume was low just before the end-of-summer holiday.  But the only sellers to be found were in cattle and the US dollar!  Nearly every commodity and stock and bond and currency closed higher!  In fact, the CRB Index closed the month with a magnificent, massive, wide-range bar up!

Why?  Ah, the dollar.  The dollar index made its 14-year high on the first day of trading in 2017 and has trended lower ever since.  Oversold?  Maybe.

How much will the US spend for Harvey storm recovery?  The debt ceiling mayincrease spending.  The 2018 budget with huge Pentagon slush fund?  All-out tax cuts financed by deficit spending?  What may a fiscal free lunch do to the US dollar?  All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Friday, 01 September 2017 10:53