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Home Editors Comments July 2017 Editors Comments

July 2017 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

Hottest off the press:

2017 Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume contains seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns for each delivery and several spreads against each, weekly and basis charts; a total of 190 seasonal, spread, product, and crack strategies for year-round trading.

Recently published:

2017 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume explores seasonal tendencies for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice with seasonal patterns and 84 strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Soy Complex:  this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil; includes 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas, with calendar, product, and crush spreads.

2017 Historical Grains:  this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KCBT, MGE); includes 122 seasonal and spread strategies , both inter- and intramarket,  for year-round trading ideas.

2017 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume of seasonal analysis for live and feeder cattle includes cash, basis, and historical daily charts; best of all, it presents 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2017 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads:  this 126-page volume of seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for hog/cattle spreads includes historical daily charts, 46 seasonal and spread strategies for hogs, and 30 hog/cattle spread strategies.

Physical Commodities

The CRB Index (, Free Charts, enter $CRB) made a multi-year low in February 2016 at 155.  After a rally to 196 in June, it has remained in a range between 196 on the high side and 177 on the low side.  On June 1, it closed at 179, poised to test if not break below the bottom of that range.

And that with the US dollar having made a multi-year high on the first business day of the 2017 and trending lower through May 2017 to a 6-month low!

Accepted conventional wisdom had been that commodities would move opposite the US$.  Indeed, its strength had been the excuse for commodity weakness since at least mid 2014.  Why, oh why, were commodities now not responding to this dollar decline?

Are commodities that weak, that they cannot rally even as the dollar drops?  Or do commodities know that the dollar is just taking a breather in a macro-bull market?  Or is the dollar dropping only because interest rates are soft, signalling economic weakness and lack of commodity demand?  If so, why is so much money flowing into the US stock market?  Can it hold up, let alone continue to rally?

All will eventually be revealed, but, until then, maybe we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 July 2017 08:05  

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MRCI's New 2016 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle & Lean Hog / Cattle-Hog Spreads Reports -- are ready to go!

Tutorial of MRCI Special Historical Reports