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August 2021 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Brent: this 124-page volume is a perfect complement to the Historical Energy report released just prior (and discussed below); features seasonal analysis of Brent crude oil, the international standard traded on the ICE, and also gasoil; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and also several spreads, including between ICE Brent and NYMEX crude light; best of all, 74 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

Well that was a modest correction!

Closing May at 206 with a high of 207, the old CRB Index was overbought on both daily and weekly time frames and had been for some time.  The typical result?  A month or more of correction.

But, no!  Despite lumber, one of the earliest and most spectacular leaders, falling from $1711 in May down to as low as $705 on the last day of June, the CRB itself continued to new highs above 212 the highest since 2015.  In fact, on the last day of June, corn closed up the 40-cent limit, soybeans up 80, wheat up 34.  Metals, which had been suffering, all closed higher (including palladium up $105), as did all the energies.

And that was with the US dollar index up 0.40!

Remember your CRB history.  The index peaked in June 2008 at 474.  The Elliott fifth wave climaxed at 101 last April.  Like a compressed spring, it required only 14 months to retrace 30% of a 12-year downtrend.

Now what?  There is the old saying in commodities that the cure for high prices is high prices.  But what is high?  The stock market has continued to roll merrily along since 2009 a twelve-year bull market that took the S&P500 from 667 to now test 4300.

So will this commodity inflation be transitory?

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Tuesday, 27 July 2021 04:37
 

July 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.


Recently published:

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities


The CRB more than doubled in 13 months!?!

The pandemic panic collapsed the old CRB Index to a far more than 20-year low last April when it traded at 101.48.  This May, it reached as high as 209.52 the highest in 6 years.

Of course, corn traded 244% of its low; soybeans more than doubled; wheat rose 64%.  Crude traded 1,000% of its low and that is if you ignore its one-day trade at -$40.32 for immediate delivery!  Copper traded 248% as high a new at least multi-decade high!  Lumber went from $252 to $1,711.

They will not keep up that pace.  In fact, many may well decline now.  But is this only transitory inflation?  Is it like trying to go from 0 to 60 by stomping on the accelerator from a standing stop and having the tires spin and then suddenly gain traction?  Is it only the result of supply chain disruptions?

Or is there something else at work?  Have market-driven interest rates made a secular bottom?  Has the US dollar entered a long-term bear market?  Will crop problems more often crop up around the world?  Will global tensions continue to rise?  Will the stock market go up forever?

What is gold trying to say?

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Sunday, 04 July 2021 11:04
 

June 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:


2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

Well, that was a short-lived correction.  After closing March well below its high, the CRB needed barely a week more before charging to a new high.

After closing March at about 185, the Index "plunged" to a low of 183 - and then roared higher up to 202.41 and closed April at 199.76.  Remember that the all-time high was struck in 2008 at 473.97.  It then worked its way lower in three fairly distinct legs.  By the April 2020 pandemic panic low, it had lost more than 78% to trade at 101.48!

Since then it has essentially doubled.  Corn, with a low of $3.01 last April, saw May 21 Corn trade at least as high as $7.58 in the overnight market before the first business day of May.  Soybeans, which traded at $8.08 last April, traded at $16.08 in April 2021.

Nearby crude oil (ignoring the deliverable price of -$40/barrel in April 2020), which traded at $6.68, reached the mid to upper $60s.  Copper and lumber,
essential building materials in the housing industry, traded above $4.55 and $1,500, respectively!

The 200-205 area on the CRB chart suggests heavy resistance, and both daily and weekly charts are overbought.  But the money continues to pour and interest rates remain near 0.

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 03 May 2021 05:19
 

May 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year!

Hottest off the press:

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:   this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder  cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and  several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66  seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads:   this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for  spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and  weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical  daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for  hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

Correction?  Consolidation?

After making a significant low last October below 143, the CRB Index marched steadily higher.  In January it closed 31 points higher than that.  With energies leading the way crude oil above $67! and corn and soybeans driving higher and metals still elevated, the Index traded more than 53 points above its October low before closing February over 190.

The Index stalled in March, unable to make a new high in conditions considered overbought by oscillators, such as the weekly RSI over 80 and the daily over 90.  The latter ended March near 50.

So, is that all there is?  Corn planting begins in April, with soybeans right behind.  After the USDA estimated surprisingly low planting intentions for both crops, the first several deliveries for each closed locked limit up on 3/31!  Will crude oil find support after a $10 correction?  Gasoline usage will now rise.  Did natural gas make a bottom?  Will a global recovery drive copper to new highs?  What about gold and silver? Both rallied on 3/31. Are they in a large-degree correction, and is it complete?  If so, what does that suggest for future prices?

Will a flood of US dollars drive a solid economic recovery in which commodities are in great demand?

What else can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

 


Last Updated on Thursday, 01 April 2021 04:40
 

April 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year!

Hottest off the press:

2021 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads:  this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

Wow!  And whoa!

After a pandemic-driven multi-decade low in April 2020 at 101.48, the CRB Index soared to 154.54 (53 points) by the first week of September.  It consolidated through October, bumping along the underside of the 50-week moving average and trading back down to 142.70.  But in November it broke out of that bull flag and soared again into the next-to-last day of February, reaching 196.15 (another 53 points!)  But markets got hit hard the last day, with the index closing at 190.43.

Believe it or not, even with that sell-off, that close was above all of 2019 and 2020!

So, time for another correction?  The 50-dma is 176.42, the 200-dma at 153.59.  Was that a shot across the bow?  There is much discussion going around about whether commodities have entered another supercycle, perhaps like the 1970s.

Either way, trading opportunities are eye-opening.  Gold, of course, reached an all-time high in August but was $370 lower in late February.  Copper is not far off its 10-year high.  Lumber has soared to above $1,000/mbf.  Soybeans and corn are at 9-year highs.

And what abut the US dollar?

What else can you do but ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Monday, 01 March 2021 08:46
 


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Amid explosive interest in China, MRCI will now update charts of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock indices daily! http://www.mrci.com/client/hilite/hl001.php