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December 2018 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports


MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press......

2018 Historical Indices: a 186-page volume that arrives just in time for the "best six months of the year," with contract-specific seasonal patterns and weekly charts for domestic indices S&P500, S&P Midcap 400, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, DJIA and several international markets; with 62 domestic and 108 international seasonal strategies.

Recently published......

2018 Historical Interest Rates: a 222-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month of US financial instruments such as 30-yr bonds, 2-, 5-, and 10-yr T-notes,
and Eurodollars; also seasonal analysis of several international debt instruments and of US Treasury spreads in exchange-recognized ratios; complete with 206 seasonal and spread strategies.

2018 Historical Forex: a 218-page volume with seasonal analysis of A$, C$, Br-pound, euros, J-yen, Sw-franc, Mexican peso, New Zealand $, and the US$ Index; contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts; with 78 seasonal and 158 spread strategies.

2018 Historical Energy: this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; includes 190 seasonal, spread (both intra- and intermarket), and crack strategies.

2018 Historical Brent: this 124-page volume contains seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil (used by most of the world for pricing crude) and gasoil (similar to heating oil); with 74 seasonal and spread strategies, including Brent vs. crude light.

2018 Historical Softs: this 154-page volume contains seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar, orange juice, and rice; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.


CRB & Physical Commodities


As of October 23, the month that began so well for the CRB Index is in danger of failing.  After September closed at 195.16, October raced to its high of 201.72 in 3 days.  The low?  194.37 on October 23, with markets soft the day after.  That leaves the index caught between the 50-dma at 193.95 and the 200-dma at 196.25.  The 50 is below the 200, but both are rising.

The 50-wma at 195.25 remains above the 200-wma at 192.27, with the 50-wma rising.  So, closing above the October high (201.72) would be bullish, closing above the May high (206.95) would be very bullish.  Closing below the August low (186.74) would be bearish.

Corn and soybeans tend to enjoy post-harvest rallies but have been caught in ranges of 330-375 and 790-900 since mid June.  CBOT wheat has been in a range of about 500-525 for 6 weeks.  Closes above 1245 in gold and 15.00 in silver would be moderately bullish.  Is copper forming a massive head-and-shoulders bottom, with a potential head at 255 and neckline at 287?

What about coffee and sugar, 35% and 41% higher in barely a month?  Natural gas broke higher from a 7-month range.  Crucial levels in crude oil are the 76.90 high and the August  low of 64.43.  And what about the US dollar, and tariffs, and politics, and ...?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 27 November 2018 08:23
 

November 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Metals: this 84-page volume analyzes gold, silver, copper, platinum with seasonal patterns and weekly charts; presents 72 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2018 Historical Interest Rates:  a 222-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for US financial instruments such as 30-yr bonds, 2-, 5-, and 10-yr T-notes, and Eurodollars; also seasonal analysis of several international debt instruments and of US Treasury spreads in exchange-recognized ratios; with 206 seasonal and spread strategies.

2018 Historical Forex:  a 218-page volume with seasonal analysis of A$, C$, Br-pound, euros, J-yen, Sw-franc, Mexican peso, New Zealand $, and the US$ Index; contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts; with 78 seasonal and 158 spread strategies.

2018 Historical Energy:  this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; includes 190 seasonal, spread (both intra- and intermarket), and crack strategies.

2018 Historical Brent:  this 124-page volume contains seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil and gasoil (similar to heating oil); with 74 seasonal and spread strategies, including Brent vs. crude light.


CRB & Physical Commodities


As bad as August looked for the CRB Index, September may have been almost as good.  The CRB closed August at 192.96 but September at 195.16.

A higher monthly close, yes.  But the chart shows more.  Although the 50dma (192.19) is below the 200dma (195.56), the index is poking at the 200-dma.  Better still, and perhpas surprisingly, the rising 50-week ma (194.51) crossed over the still declining 200-week ma (193.18) during September!

Now what?  Gold, silver, platinum, and copper are still grossly oversold, and four tend to rise into winter.

Wheat harvest is complete.  Corn and soybean harvests are underway, but prices for both typically make their seasonal low during early October.  Soybeans may have already made theirs, and corn may also have made its low then, although the nearby weekly chart made its low in June!  despite tariffs, a new aggreement with Canada and Mexico may help prices.  Further, US officials in Beijing reportedly see Chinese corn supplies ending 2018-19 at the tightest in 50 years!

Crude oil prices continue to rise, exceeding $75 on October 1.  Exports from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya lag.

And the US dollar?  

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Wednesday, 31 October 2018 07:42
 

October 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Forex:  a 218-page volume with seasonal analysis for A$, C$, Br-pound, euros, J-yen, Sw-franc, Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar, and the US dollar index; contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts; with 78 seasonal strategies and 158 spread strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities


Sigh ... tariffs, now emerging markets.  What next?

After trading to a 3-year high in May at 206.95, the CRB fell to as low as 186.74 in mid August.  As it did, it fell below the 50-day ma (dma) which fell below the 200-dma.  By the end of the month, it did retrace back up to 193.63 in a retest of the 50-dma at 193.42 (on August 31) but closed lower for the month at 192.12.

As ugly as is the daily chart, the weekly holds out some hope.  The rising 50-week ma - 193.93 - is converging with the declining 200-week ma at 194.24.

Unfortunately, September got off to an ugly start.  Allegedly precious metals got hit hard as the US dollar rose, with silver making a new low for the move only 40 cents off its 9-year low.  Coffee made a 12-year low.  Wheat got hammered.  Crude oil was higher but only because a weak hurricane approached the US Gulf Coast.

Discouraging sentiment.  Lots of supply in several markets.  Strong US dollar.  Money still flowing into stock markets.

Can it get worse for commodities?  Of course.  But will it?  For how long can the US dollar remain strong?  How long can US stocks continue to climb without a significant correction?  If stocks do correct, will commodities rally?  Or will they be too depressed?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Wednesday, 03 October 2018 12:34
 

September 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Energy:  this 282-page volume contains
seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural
gas; includes 190 seasonal, spread (both intra- and intermarket),
and crack strategies for year-round.

2018 Historical Brent:  this 124-page volume contains
seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil (used by most of the world for
pricing crude) and gasoil (similar to heating oil); with 74 seasonal
and spread strategies, including Brent vs. crude light.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Well, July was a bust.  Will August be better?

Many commodities/markets tend to be weak in summer.  Wheat supplies
are bulging from harvest, corn pollinates, and soybeans will soon
be made.  Gasoline consumption is peaking, but heating oil is in little
demand.  Natural gas is being consumed in hot-weather regions, but
prices decline as stocks are liquidated. 
Precious metals suffer their own summer doldrums.

But winter wheat harvest is now over.  Did corn and soybeans already
make their lows from tariff-related selling?  Crude oil is still under
pressure, unable to decisively overcome resistance at $70.

The CRB Index made its last significant low near 167 in June 2017.  Since
then, it trended higher, smashed through a double top around 196,
and in May reached almost 207.  It then pulled back to as low as 190 in mid July before
ending the month at 194.53.

But the 50-day moving average (dma) at 197.60 is above the 200dma
at 194.80.  The pullback into mid July tested successfully so
far the rising 50-week ma.  Resistance is being offered
at the declining 200-week ma, which is close to converging with the
50-week.

Will there soon be a breakout from this converging triangle.  Which
way?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Friday, 03 August 2018 10:44
 

July 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print


Special Historical Reports


MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Softs : this 154-page volume contains seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar, orange juice, and rice; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading.

Recently published:

2018 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat (W, KW, MW); with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several intra-market, and inter-market spreads; some cash studies and charts; and 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.

2018 Historical Lumber: this 60-page volume presents seasonal analysis of lumber futures; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month and some spreads, volatility studies, historical daily charts; and 22 seasonal and spread strategies suggest especially reliable seasonal movements throughout the year.

2018 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:
this 148-page volume presents seasonal analysis of the cattle complex; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads against each, live/feeder cattle spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2018 Historical Lean Hogs & Cattle/Hog Spreads:
this 126-page volume contains seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for cattle/hog spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts for both; with 76 seasonal and spread strategies.


Next up:

2018 Historical Energy


CRB & Physical Commodities


The last reaction/corrective low in the CRB Index came April 4 at
190.42.  The Index then broke out above double-top resistance near
197 and charged higher to close the month at 201.98.  But it was not
done, for it went even higher in May, up to 206.95 - breaking
out and closing for 5 weeks above the 200-week moving average (wma).  The
decline during the last few days of May - driven by an abrupt
10% ($7/bbl) drop in crude oil - simply returned the CRB to retest
from above its 200-wma, now near 200.  It then closed the month of
May at 202.84 - still higher than April

Will it continue to hold - and then resume its trend higher?   Because
energies make up such a large proportion of the Index, much will depend
on how they behave.  What about the grains & soybean complex?  Winter
wheat harvest is ready to begin with questions about how much the
crop was damaged.  Corn, soybeans, and spring wheat are subject to
weather for the next several weeks.  Cotton has been on a tear,
trading from 84 up to 96 in just three weeks.

What about the US dollar?  Is the rally about over?  How will it affect
gold, silver, copper?  Will the economy continue to perform well?  Does
the CRB suggest inflation is rearing its head?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Friday, 01 June 2018 08:54
 


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