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March 2020 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

Historical Lumber: this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.



CRB & Physical Commodities

OMG!

The CRB Index ended the year 2019 at 185.79 not far off the high for the year of 189.68 made in April.  On the second day of 2020, it traded up to 187.87.

Only to collapse!  It closed January at 170.31 a monthly loss of more than 8%!  Along the way, it left 5 gaps on its daily chart and 2 on the weekly!  The low at 169.88 was made on the last day of the month.  That was not far off the 2019 low of 167.38 and the 2018 low of 168.21.

Of course, the presumptive cause was China's coronavirus and its potential to disrupt world trade with the world's second largest economy.  Crude oil collapsed almost $10 month-to-month 16%!  Grains and oilseeds fell hard, despite a supposed US-China trade agreement.  Hogs traded 14% lower just in the last 3 days of the month.  Natural gas continued to erode.

It is now grossly oversold on daily indicators such as RSI and MACD.  If if! it holds here and turns up, that could mark a 3-year equilibrium low.  If so, beware commodity inflation.  Is that what gold has been suggesting?  What are bonds trying to say?

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 February 2020 06:52
 

February 2020 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year! Hottest off the press.......

2019 Historical Indices:  this 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Jailbreak?  Pivotal turning point?

The venerable CRB Index has come alive!!  On the day before Christmas, it closed at its highest since April!

It now well above its 50-dma, which itself is in bullish alignment above the 200-dma.  It is also above its 50-week ma, and has now closed above its 200-week ma - although the latter is still above the former.

To recap, the index made a double weekly bottom in December '18-January '19 at 168.21-168.26, its 2019 high at 189.68, and then a triple weekly bottom at 167.38-167.19 - an equilibrium sequence.  It has since been working slowly higher to approach its 2019 high.

What has been the driver?  Grains, metals, energies have all strengthened - and the US dollar weakened.

Are gold, silver, and platinum ready to make a jailbreak of their own?  Rather than trend lower as some analysts had suggested, they have turned up to retest recent highs.  If they breach the latter, is it a big bull market?  Why is crude oil back above $60?  Can natural gas go any lower - or is ready to rise, also?  Have grains and soybeans made multi-month or even multi-year lows?

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 02 January 2020 09:32
 

January 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:


2019 Historical Indices this 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities


Thud again!

After the commodity CRB Index closed October at 176.89, it traded higher in November, reaching 182.44.  That was well above the 50-day moving average (dma, currently 177.44) and even the 200-dma (178.85). 
However, it collapsed on the last day of the month to make a new monthly low (176.54) and lower monthly close (176.66).  Ugh!

What happened?  Grains, metals, energies all slumped.  But all three complexes have tended to rise from December into January and beyond.  So December will be a good test.

For example, all three members of the petroleum complex crude, gasoline, heating oil - have tended to set a significant low in or by mid December after refiners dump crude and its products to avoid year-end states taxes.  Refiners then need to replenish depleted crude stocks, heating oil consumption continues high, and gasoline values begin slowly to rise.  Gold, silver, platinum, and copper have usually rallied at least into February.  Corn, soybeans, and cotton tend to stage multi-month post-harvest recoveries.

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 December 2019 12:45
 

December 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Indices

This 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.

Recently published:


2019 Historical Metals

This 84-page volume contains seasonal analysis of gold, silver, copper, and platinum, including gold/silver spreads and gold/platinum spreads; with 72 seasonal and spread trading strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Boo!  A higher close?  With harvest pressure?  With metals and energies struggling?

Yes, the CRB Index did indeed close higher on Halloween than at the end of September 176.89 versus 173.94.  In itself, that may seem irrelevant.  And maybe it is.

But the high for the month tested the 200-dma and the 50-week ma.  The weekly chart shows that, since June 2017, the CRB has made seven 7! weekly lows between 166.48 and 168.26.

Does that suggest a long-term bottom is forming?  If so, does that then suggest inflation, at least commodity inflation, is bubbling?

Corn and soybean harvest will soon be over, relieving immediate supply pressures.  Crude oil and products remain in a range.  Is long-term consolidation taking place?  Members of the softs complexhave been beaten to a pulp already.  Livestock prices are high but not falling and China, where pork is a primary meat, is seeing its hog herds devastated by disease.  Gold, silver, and platinum are perky at worst.

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Saturday, 02 November 2019 17:10
 

November 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

1. 2019 Historical Metals

This 84-page volume contains seasonal analysis of gold, silver, copper, and platinum, including gold/silver spreads and gold/platinum spreads; with 72 seasonal and spread trading strategies.

2. 2019 Historical Interest Rates

This 206-page volume contains seasonal analysis of US debt instrument futures for 30-yr bonds, 10-/5-/2-yr Treasuries, and Eurodollars along with instruments from LIFFE, EUREX, SGX, SFE international exchanges; complete with 186 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

3. 2019 Historical Forex

This 236-page volume contains seasonal analysis of AD, BP, CD, USD, EU, JY, MP, NZ, and SF futures; seasonal patterns for each delivery month and intermarket spreads; includes 236 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

A bottom in June 2017 at 166.48.  Another the last week in 2018 at 168.21 and the first week of 2019 at 168.26.  Now three at 167.38 (on 8/7/19), 167.64 (8/23/19), and finally 167.79 (9/3/19).

Could that be a big triple bottom, with one made in each of the years 2017-2019?  

After the September low, it rose to 183.33 taking out the August high and testing the 50-week moving average.  However, it ended the month at only 173.94 right on the 50-day moving average.

On the first day of October, corn and soybeans rose despite harvest getting underway but coincident with the typical seasonal bottom for both, and wheat was modestly higher.

Gold and silver were both higher.  Was the preceding sell-off a washout or the beginning of a larger decline?  After the spike up in response to the Saudi oil bombing, crude oil sold off to below where it was just prior, but products held firm on 10/1.

On that same day, the US dollar made a new high since April 2017 but then reversed, at least for the day.

Now what?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Wednesday, 02 October 2019 05:55
 


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Amid explosive interest in China, MRCI will now update charts of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock indices daily! http://www.mrci.com/client/hilite/hl001.php