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Editors Comments


December 2016 Editors Comments

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Traders want volatility?  They may get volatility!

Crude oil down more than $2 one day then gasoline (temporarily)
up more than 21.00 centsthe next.  Gold does nothing but hug its 200-day
moving average for the last 3 weeks of October then up $30 in
3 days.  The US$ drops 0.80 on the first day of November, the same
day OJ closed up 10.00 cents and soybeans down 20.00 cents.  Fats
and feeders trade limits a few times.

Instability?  Election uncertainty?

Or is something changing?  From deflationary fears toward at least
modest inflation?  China resurgent or ready for a credit crash?  India?  The
November 1 PMI for both countries was higher than anticipated.

The venerable CRB Index made a multi-year low in early 2016, rallied
into June, and has since traded sideways.  The 50-dma is above the
200-dma, with the index testing the 50-dma from above.  The weekly
index is crawling along the top of the 50-week ma.

Now what?  Even in normnal years, the US dollar has tended
to decline through year end.  Will the current environment exaggerate
that?  Even if not, how will markets react?  Are the precious metals
preparing to run again?  What about the stock market?  And bonds?

Perhaps we should be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke
 


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