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October 2020 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Energy: this 280-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including product and crack spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

CRB & Physical Commodities

In August, Dec Gold traded at an all-time high of 2,089 doubling its 2015 low of 1,045.  Lumber traded at an all-time high over $900.  Dec Silver reached $29.91.  Just since mid April, Nov Soybeans floated more than 15% higher by the end of the August the same day copper traded 55% higher than in March.  Did sugar, coffee, cocoa, cotton all make multi-year lows?

And crude oil?  From -$40 to more than +42!

The S&P 500?  62% higher at the end of August than in mid March!

Did natural gas finally make a major bottom?

From mid March to the end of August, the US dollar fell more than 10%!


Congress fought the spring economic collapse by spending $3 trillion.  The Federal Reserve buying bonds left and right, front and back; talking about "yield-curve control"

and now the FED wanting inflation to rise high enough and long enough for it to average 2% over several years!

We do indeed live in interesting times.  Are they about to get even more interesting?

And what will eventually happen to the US dollar?

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 03 September 2020 10:31
 

September 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Energy: this 280-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including product and crack spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

CRB & Physical Commodities

No inflation?  A glance at the Bloomberg Commodity Index, suggests that deflation is old news.  Since the high in July 2008 at 238.52, there has been disinflation.  In fact, from September 2015 through January 2020, this Index traded only 72-92.

Then came the pandemic and fears of deflation.  In fact, the Index collpsed down to 58.87 in April the lowest since June 1975.  The nearby crude oil contract actually traded at -$40/barrel just 2 days before its Last Trading Day!  Now that might qualify as disinflation!

But the most active gold contract made an all-time high above $2,000 on the last day of July the month before gold normally begins a seasonal rally into the fourth quarter.

Corn and soybeans have been soft during July, but both usually begin to decline into harvest.  Maybe they made pre-harvest lows already?

In fact, the Index rose to as high as 69.09 in July a 17% increase from its low.  Granted, if unemployment remains high and the economy slack, there will be certain price pressures.  But monetary and fiscal stimuli?

And what about the US dollar?

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 August 2020 04:21
 

August 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Energy: this 280-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including product and crack spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

So, with stocks especially the NASDAQ soaring, and on or about June 30:  Gold hit $1800?  Natural gas may have finally hit bottom at $1.432?  Corn set a bottom just as pollination season arrived along with a couple of weeks of temperatures forecast to be above 90 degrees in central Illinois?

Have copper, cotton, coffee, sugar all set major bottoms in the last couple of months?  Crude oil may not go anywhere but is poking at +$40 rather than -40 (a forever bottom?)

According to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (which most closely tracks the old CRB Index) the panic low made in April was the lowest since June 1975. To believe that either or both will be exceeded would seem to require a fear of absolute economic catastrophe.

Will seemingly unlimited money creation around the globe allow that to happen before generating at least a bout of inflation?  Will politicians allow debt to crush everything and everyone?  Or will they do anything and everything to prevent it?

Not only is the season of heat and hurricanes upon us also the political.  Whither thou goest US dollar?

What can you possibly do but ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke




Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 August 2020 04:22
 

July 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

Whew!  Was that it?

The Bloomberg (DJ-UBS) Commodity Index (with weekly and monthly charts updated daily at https://www.mrci.com/client/djubs.php) is perhaps the closest readily available to the old CRB Index.  In 2008, it reached as high as 238.52.  This past April, it traded at 58.87 less than 25% of that high and its lowest low since July 1975.

Will that prove to be a historic low?  In March it had made a slightly higher low and bounced modestly.  But when it returned in April and made its new (final?) low, it spent the next five weeks recovering to close out May at 64.41.  That confirms nothing yet, other than we now have a low of some significance with which to work and by which to judge future market behavior.

Will seasonal behavior return to markets?  Crops will have growing seasons and harvests.  Energies will face summer and winter weather.  Interest rates and currencies will continue to be influenced by fiscal years.

But have markets become too skewed by once-in-a-lifetime health, economic, political, monetary, and fiscal factors?  Are they too distorted to trade "normally"?  With so many trillions of dollars, euros, yen,
etc., shoved into economies world-wide ...

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Monday, 01 June 2020 15:42
 

June 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

Wow - what a strange world!  You have to pay someone -anyone! $40 to take a barrel of crude oil off your hands!?!  Some traders would have been delighted to swap their barrel for a roll of toilet paper!


Yes, of course, there are billions of dollars worth of bonds issued globally with negative interest rates.  (Lend me $100 today and I'll gladly pay you $97 in 10 years!)  Will someone eventually pay you to take a gallon of gasoline, a steer, a bushel of wheat, a bale of cotton, an ounce of gold?  (Please, just take it away!)

Yes, there were technical considerations specific to futures.  Delivery dates, no storage, etc.  But, really!?

A world in which crude oil trades at -$40 but gold is approaching its all-time high.  Meat-packing plants close because of COVID-19 even as cattle marketings for March were the second highest since the series began in 1996 - and placements at the lowest on record!

A world in which some economists believe the US economy could shrink 30% (annualized) during the second quarter and unemployment approach Great Depression levels - and the stock market soars!

Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is lowest since mid 1975.

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 August 2020 04:22
 


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