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March 2021 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year!

Hottest off the press:

2021 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads:  this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

New macro uptrend or large-degree correction?

After the pandemic low in April at 101.48, the old CRB has continued to trend higher into January, reaching 176.85 a 74% move in nine months.  Granted, that low was compressed.  But 74%?

Yes, gold and silver soared, with gold reaching a new all-time high at $2,089.  But copper Dr. Copper rose from $1.97 in March to as high as $3.73 in January.  Crude oil even ignoring the trade into negativity at -$40.32!!! rose from $6.68 to $53.87.

Among the big and surprising winners were soybeans and corn.  China apparently took advantage of low prices and rebuilt grain reserves as she tries to rebuild her hog herd.  Soybeans led, trading from $8.08 to as high as $14.36.  Corn went along from $3.01 to $5.53.  And both with large overhang supply.

So, the argument of the day is whether to expect inflation or deflation or both?  Both sides have valid points.  The inflation side says the US dollar has entered a new phase of weakness because of low interest rates and money printing.  The opposing side says the velocity of money cannot rise because of the drag from enormous and growing debt and the probability of a weakening economy even if the virus is soon contained.

So, what can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Monday, 01 February 2021 05:50
 

February 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Indices: this 186-page volume features seasonal analysis for US stock indices SP500, SP400 Midcap, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, DJIA and several international; includes 62 strategies for US indices and 108 for those international.

2020 Historical Metals: an 84-page volume featuring seasonal analysis for gold, silver, platinum, and copper; with 42 seasonal strategies and 30 spreads for year-round trading ideas.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

Wow!  Another huge month for the CRB!

The Index traded as high as 187.71 in early January 2020 before collapsing to 101.48 before the pandemic.  But then it began a recovery.

After trending up into August/Septenber, the market consolidated.  Finding support twice in October generated a charge through the 50-week moving average in November.  After that break out, it soared through December to close on its recovery high of 167.80.  It is now poised to challenge the 200-week moving average at 175.60 and then the 2019-20 highs 187.71-189.68.

Gold reached an all-time at 2089.  Silver tested $30.  Copper traded above $3.64 the highest in nearly eight years.  Having never traded above $500 before 2018, lumber futures touched $1,000 in 2020.  After trading at -$40.32 in April, crude oil tested $50.

Despite trade tariffs, corn and soybeans made lows early in the year and never looked back even as excellent US crops were harvested.

Governments around the world fought economic distress with both fiscal and monetary weapons.  The US dollar closed the year at its weakest since April 2018 and put that even low in jeopardy.  But many other global currrencies were debased.  What will 2021 bring?

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Monday, 04 January 2021 10:46
 

January 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Indices: this 186-page volume features seasonal analysis for US stock indices SP500, SP400 Midcap, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, DJIA and several international; includes
62 strategies for US indices and 108 for those international.

2020 Historical Metals: an 84-page volume featuring seasonal analysis for gold, silver, platinum, and copper; with 42 seasonal strategies and 30 spreads for year-round trading ideas.

2020 Historical Forex: this 218-page volume features seasonal analysis of the Australian, Canadian, New Zealand, and US dollars, the British pound, Japanese yen, EuroFX, Swiss franc, and Mexican Peso; weekly charts for each delivery month; several inter-market spreads; best of all, 236 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2020 Historical Brent: the perfect complement to 2020 Historical Energy highlighted immediately below, this 220-page volume features seasonal analysis for Brent Crude - upon which much of the world's oil is priced - and gasoil; with 74 trading strategies, including spreads between crude light and Brent crude.

2020 Historical Energy: this 280-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including product and crack spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Wow!  Now that was impressive!

The old CRB had its best monthly showing in years.  After closing October at 144.81, testing on that last day its low for the month of 142.59, the Index looked as if it was ready to collapse.  But on the first trading day of November, it opened lower and then burst higher - foreshadowing a dynamic run throughout the month.  By the next-to-last day of November, the Index had traded up to 161.10 - the highest since early March and above the 50-week moving average of about 149.

Was it relief the election was over?  Excitement over the development of coronavirus vaccines that would eventually allow not only the US but also the global economy to recover and go on to new heights?

Though gold and silver struggled to consolidate(?), grains and soybeans continued to rally right through harvest!  Copper soared.  Natural gas traded as if it had made a bottom of some significance, and the petroleum complex worked erratically higher.  Some softs rallied.

What now?  Remarkably, both the US dollar and precious metals ended the month grossly oversold on daily/weekly charts, with the dollar also oversold on monthly charts.  Does that mean both will fall farther?  Both primed to rally?  One fall and one rally?

What can you possibly do but ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 04 January 2021 10:34
 

December 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Indices: this 186-page volume features seasonal analysis for US stock indices SP500, SP400 Midcap, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, DJIA and several international; includes
62 strategies for US indices and 108 for those international.

2020 Historical Metals: an 84-page volume featuring seasonal analysis for gold, silver, platinum, and copper; with 42 seasonal strategies and 30 spreads for year-round trading ideas.

2020 Historical Forex: this 218-page volume features seasonal analysis of the Australian, Canadian, New Zealand, and US dollars, the British pound, Japanese yen, EuroFX, Swiss franc, and Mexican Peso; weekly charts for each delivery month; several inter-market spreads; best of all, 236 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2020 Historical Brent: the perfect complement to 2020 Historical Energy highlighted immediately below, this 220-page volume features seasonal analysis for Brent Crude - upon which much of the world's oil is priced - and gasoil; with 74 trading strategies, including spreads between crude light and Brent crude.

2020 Historical Energy: this 280-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including product and crack spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

CRB & Physical Commodities

The CRB traded in a range throughout October.  The high was 152.73, the low 142.59.  It spent the month of October trading just below the 50-week moving average of 150.61, which closed October at 144.73.

Grains and soybeans enjoyed strong rallies during harvest!  Does that counterseasonal move imply simmering strength that could erupt in the future?  World wheat-growing areas have been suffering from a lack of moisture.

Gold and silver have perhaps been consolidating.  If so, are they preparing to make another run higher?  If so, what does that mean?  While
those two precious metals get a lot of attention, have you looked at copper?

Cattle and hogs have been strong lately, along with sugar and cotton.  Had you noticed that lumber made an all-time not so long ago at $1,000/bd ft?  Other markets, such as cocoa, coffee, and orange juice have shown some sporadic strength.

Crude oil and products have been struggling, but seem to be in a trading range rather than a downtrend.  In contrast, has natural gas finally made a major bottom?

Will central banks around the world generate a competitive currency devaluation?  Will there be another US stimulus program?

What can you possibly do but ...


Trade 'em,

Last Updated on Monday, 02 November 2020 13:51
 

November 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Forex:
this 218-page volume features seasonal analysis of the Australian, Canadian, New Zealand, and US dollars, the British pound, Japanese yen, EuroFX, Swiss franc, and Mexican Peso; weekly charts for each delivery month; several inter-market spreads; best of all, 236 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2020 Historical Brent: the perfect complement to 2020 Historical Energy highlighted immediately below, this 220-page volume features seasonal analysis for Brent Crude - upon which much of the world's oil is priced - and gasoil; with 74 trading strategies, including spreads between crude light and Brent crude.

2020 Historical Energy: this 280-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including product and crack spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

CRB & Physical Commodities

After posting a multi-year (-decade?) low of 101.48 in mid April as the virus smashed markets, the CRB (available at stockcharts.com) rose to as high as 154.65 on the last day of August.  Is that 50% increase in less than five months a precursor?  The initial surge out of a major low?

The index pulled back into September to 144.59 and then coiled between those two levels.  As it did so, the 50-dma crossed above the 200-dma late in the month.  After a final washout(?) dip on the next-to-last day of September, the index closed strong on the last day as crude oil and some of the metals closed higher and grains soared.  And that with the weekly RSI barely above 50!

Granted, this has been an aberrant year.  But how often have corn and soybeans after a good growing season rally into a harvest during good weather?  Did the USDA Grain Stocks report suggest demand for corn, wheat, and soybeans was much better than the market assumed?  Does that foretell a brighter future?

Is it about the dollar?  Will the CRB now embark on a multi-year uptrend?  Gold made an all-time high appears to be consolidating.  Crude oil may struggle, but has natural gas made a long-term low?

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 15 October 2020 06:04
 


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