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September 2018 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Energy:  this 282-page volume contains
seasonal analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural
gas; includes 190 seasonal, spread (both intra- and intermarket),
and crack strategies for year-round.

2018 Historical Brent:  this 124-page volume contains
seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil (used by most of the world for
pricing crude) and gasoil (similar to heating oil); with 74 seasonal
and spread strategies, including Brent vs. crude light.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Well, July was a bust.  Will August be better?

Many commodities/markets tend to be weak in summer.  Wheat supplies
are bulging from harvest, corn pollinates, and soybeans will soon
be made.  Gasoline consumption is peaking, but heating oil is in little
demand.  Natural gas is being consumed in hot-weather regions, but
prices decline as stocks are liquidated. 
Precious metals suffer their own summer doldrums.

But winter wheat harvest is now over.  Did corn and soybeans already
make their lows from tariff-related selling?  Crude oil is still under
pressure, unable to decisively overcome resistance at $70.

The CRB Index made its last significant low near 167 in June 2017.  Since
then, it trended higher, smashed through a double top around 196,
and in May reached almost 207.  It then pulled back to as low as 190 in mid July before
ending the month at 194.53.

But the 50-day moving average (dma) at 197.60 is above the 200dma
at 194.80.  The pullback into mid July tested successfully so
far the rising 50-week ma.  Resistance is being offered
at the declining 200-week ma, which is close to converging with the
50-week.

Will there soon be a breakout from this converging triangle.  Which
way?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Friday, 03 August 2018 10:44
 

July 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print


Special Historical Reports


MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Softs : this 154-page volume contains seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar, orange juice, and rice; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading.

Recently published:

2018 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat (W, KW, MW); with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several intra-market, and inter-market spreads; some cash studies and charts; and 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.

2018 Historical Lumber: this 60-page volume presents seasonal analysis of lumber futures; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month and some spreads, volatility studies, historical daily charts; and 22 seasonal and spread strategies suggest especially reliable seasonal movements throughout the year.

2018 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:
this 148-page volume presents seasonal analysis of the cattle complex; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads against each, live/feeder cattle spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2018 Historical Lean Hogs & Cattle/Hog Spreads:
this 126-page volume contains seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for cattle/hog spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts for both; with 76 seasonal and spread strategies.


Next up:

2018 Historical Energy


CRB & Physical Commodities


The last reaction/corrective low in the CRB Index came April 4 at
190.42.  The Index then broke out above double-top resistance near
197 and charged higher to close the month at 201.98.  But it was not
done, for it went even higher in May, up to 206.95 - breaking
out and closing for 5 weeks above the 200-week moving average (wma).  The
decline during the last few days of May - driven by an abrupt
10% ($7/bbl) drop in crude oil - simply returned the CRB to retest
from above its 200-wma, now near 200.  It then closed the month of
May at 202.84 - still higher than April

Will it continue to hold - and then resume its trend higher?   Because
energies make up such a large proportion of the Index, much will depend
on how they behave.  What about the grains & soybean complex?  Winter
wheat harvest is ready to begin with questions about how much the
crop was damaged.  Corn, soybeans, and spring wheat are subject to
weather for the next several weeks.  Cotton has been on a tear,
trading from 84 up to 96 in just three weeks.

What about the US dollar?  Is the rally about over?  How will it affect
gold, silver, copper?  Will the economy continue to perform well?  Does
the CRB suggest inflation is rearing its head?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Friday, 01 June 2018 08:54
 

June 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print


Special Historical Reports


MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Softs : this 154-page volume contains seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar, orange juice, and rice; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading.

Recently published:

2018 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat (W, KW, MW); with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several intra-market, and inter-market spreads; some cash studies and charts; and 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.

2018 Historical Lumber: this 60-page volume presents seasonal analysis of lumber futures; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month and some spreads, volatility studies, historical daily charts; and 22 seasonal and spread strategies suggest especially reliable seasonal movements throughout the year.

2018 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:
this 148-page volume presents seasonal analysis of the cattle complex; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads against each, live/feeder cattle spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2018 Historical Lean Hogs & Cattle/Hog Spreads:
this 126-page volume contains seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for cattle/hog spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts for both; with 76 seasonal and spread strategies.



CRB & Physical Commodities

So inflation is starting to appear.  The FOMC's favored indicator, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) deflator, defined by Wikipedia as a 'United States-wide indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal
consumption," reached 2% in March - their target seemingly forever.

Now, will the Fed accelerate their rate increases - or let the economy run a little hotter than they might otherwise?

Your editor's favorite indicator, the CRB Index, just closed the month of April at 201.98 - the highest close in well over two years.  In other words, it would seem to be a breakout into an uptrend.

That is not to say it will run hot and fast, at least not right away.  It is currently probing its 200-week moving average of 202.14 (with the 50-wma below at 187.29).  The daily price and moving averages are in bullish alignment, with the 50-dma at 196.35 and the 200-dma at 189.03.

The leader has, of course, been crude oil - now testing $70 despite the supposed US fracking lid on prices.  Grains, led by wheat, are now joining, as have been cocoa and lumber and now perhaps cotton.  And planting has only begun for corn and soybeans.

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 01 May 2018 12:46
 

May 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat (W, KW, MW); with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several intra-market, and inter-market spreads; some cash studies and charts; and 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.

2018 Historical Lumber: this 60-page volume presents seasonal analysis of lumber futures; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month and some spreads, volatility studies, historical daily charts; and 22 seasonal and spread strategies suggest especially reliable seasonal movements throughout the year.

Recently published:

2018 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:
this 148-page volume presents seasonal analysis of the cattle complex; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads against each, live/feeder cattle spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2018 Historical Lean Hogs & Cattle/Hog Spreads:
this 126-page volume contains seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for cattle/hog spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts for both; with 76 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

This being written before the close of Thursday, March 29, how the markets and the CRB end the month are as yet unknown.  However, bullish crop reports for corn (CK up 15 cents/bu; CZ up 14 as we speak) and soybeans (SK up 30; SX up 31) and a higher energy complex suggest higher daily and monthly CRB closes.

The Index spent February fluctuating above and below the 50-day moving average (dma), itself in bullish alignment above the 200-dma (195  186).  Remember the CRB had broken to a new two-year high in January before pulling back hard in early February.  Since then it has stabilized (consolidated?) between those two levels.

If the CRB is bullish, what could drive it higher?  The energy complex has perhaps the biggest influence.  With the US fracking industry able to quickly ramp up and down, could only something globally disruptive drive crude oil out of its $58-67 range traded since mid December?  However, price is above the 50-dma ($63) which is above the 200-dma ($54.70).

The approaching US wheat harvest may suggest how much damage it has suffered.  And US corn and soybeans are not even in the ground and major exporter Argentina suffering.

And what about the US dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 29 March 2018 09:49
 

April 2018 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2018 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat (W, KW, MW); with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several intra-market, and inter-market spreads; some cash studies and charts; and 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.

2018 Historical Lumber: this 60-page volume presents seasonal analysis of lumber futures; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month and some spreads, volatility studies, historical daily charts; and 22 seasonal and spread strategies suggest especially reliable seasonal movements throughout the year.

Recently published:

2018 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:
this 148-page volume presents seasonal analysis of the cattle complex; with seasonal patterns for each delivery month, spreads against each, live/feeder cattle spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2018 Historical Lean Hogs & Cattle/Hog Spreads:
this 126-page volume contains seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for cattle/hog spreads; includes 16 years of historical daily charts for both; with 76 seasonal and spread strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Now we have parameters?  Per stockcharts.com, the CRB Index in January broke out to new +2-year highs, suggesting a new uptrend for commodities.  Big one?  Small one?  Who knows.

With 2-year resistance just over 196, the Index rose to 201.  It then fell back to 187, rose to 197, and then fell again to end February at 194 right on the 50-dma.

So, is the market consolidating for a further move higher?  Rising above 201 or falling below 187 should now trigger and signal longer-term direction.  Indicators are neutral; the 50-dma is above the 200-dma.

Grains and soy seem to be turning up.  Corn and soybeans in currently too-dry Argentina are starting to suffer; demand for soymeal has been strong.  The market is now concerned about moisture for US winter wheat.

Metals have been trading sideways.  The biggest question may be energies, a big contributor to commodity indices and the economy.  Big world oil producers have been trying to hold production levels down enough to help support price until demand can exceed supply.  But every time price rises much, US shale producers ramp up production and hold price down.  So, neutral?  What could break that cycle?

We better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 05 March 2018 10:09
 


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