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November 2021 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Forex: this 230-page volume features seasonal analysis for AD, BP, CD, DX, EU, JY, MP, NE, SF;  with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each and for spreads among them; includes 236 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

Historical Brent:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.

 

Physical Commodities

 

Transitory inflation?


Blackouts disrupting life and manufacturing in China.  Unemployment and US job openings not matching up.  Ships waiting weeks to unload at US ports.  Natural gas testing its 13-year high before winter even begins.  Crude oil testing its 7-year high.  Soybeans $4 off their high but still not far off beans in the teens at harvest!  Cotton at 10-year highs also at harvest!

The CRB closed August at 218.70.  It looked overbought in an extended trend.  But lo and behold, it roared even higher in September to make a new high for the move and close on its high at 228.92.

Thus, from its historic pandemic low in April 2020 of 101.48, the index is already challenging 6-year highs.  And take a look on page 68 of this report at the CRB BLS chart, which is already testing at least a 30-year if not all-time high.  And amazingly enough, all the above has been happening with a relatively stable US dollar.

Will soybeans and corn rally as they normally do after harvest begins?  Are precious metals gathering energy?  Will energy markets continue to trend higher?

Certainly the FED may tighten, but from how loose?  Will money continue to slosh?

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Friday, 01 October 2021 13:09
 

October 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Forex: this 230-page volume features seasonal analysis for AD, BP, CD, DX, EU, JY, MP, NE, SF;  with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each and for spreads among them; includes 236 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

Historical Brent:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.

Physical Commodities

Consolidation?  The old CRB Index had an inside month in August.  After making a new high in July up to 221.25 and closing at 218.08, the Index dropped to 206.88 testing the July low of 204.94.  It then closed ever so slightly higher for the month of August at 218.17.

It closed above its 50-day moving average (dma) of 213.84 and 200-dma at 192.33.  Doing so, the 50-week ma widened its spread over the 200-week ma.

Several indicators suggest both the daily and weekly charts are overbought.  But which is "transitory" the overbought condition or the trend?

In this hardcopy report, note the charts of the CRB-BLS Commodity Index, which is based more on basic commodity cash markets than those traded in futures.  The monthly shows the Index to be barely below the at least 30-year high made in 2011.

The petroleum complex seems to be consolidating, but natural gas may well have made a major low.  Grains and soy may be softening modestly going into corn and soybean harvest.  Are metals consolidating?  What about softs markets such as coffee?

And what about the US dollar?  Is the FED monetizing US government debt?

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 September 2021 10:32
 

September 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Brent: this 124-page volume is a perfect complement to the Historical Energy report released just prior (and discussed below); features seasonal analysis of Brent crude oil, the international standard traded on the ICE, and also gasoil; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and also several spreads, including between ICE Brent and NYMEX crude light; best of all, 74 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.

Physical Commodities

Well, that was a bullish surprise!

The CRB Index ended June at a new +5-year high of 213.39, with both daily and weekly indicators overbought and diverging (price up, indicator
not confirming new high).  But after correcting and testing its 50-day moving average, it charged higher again.

With 250 being a 40% retracement from the multi-decade low of 101 in 202 to the all-time high of 474 in 2008, the CRB reached a high in July of 221 and closed the month at 218.  In doing so, that close helped the 50-week moving average cross over above the 200-week the so-called Golden Cross.

Now what?  Often after a Golden Cross, the market will correct back to the confluence of the moving averages (near 180).  With both daily and weekly charts of the CRB already overbought and diverging for weeks, one might finally expect a signficant correction.  And indeed the month of August started off with crude oil dumping $3 intraday.

But gold was looking higher.  Corn and wheat, both of which tend to decline in August, were both looking higher.  Bonds were are considerably stronger which suggests weak economic growth with a potentially lower US dollar.

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

 


Last Updated on Thursday, 05 August 2021 05:48
 

August 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Brent: this 124-page volume is a perfect complement to the Historical Energy report released just prior (and discussed below); features seasonal analysis of Brent crude oil, the international standard traded on the ICE, and also gasoil; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and also several spreads, including between ICE Brent and NYMEX crude light; best of all, 74 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

Well that was a modest correction!

Closing May at 206 with a high of 207, the old CRB Index was overbought on both daily and weekly time frames and had been for some time.  The typical result?  A month or more of correction.

But, no!  Despite lumber, one of the earliest and most spectacular leaders, falling from $1711 in May down to as low as $705 on the last day of June, the CRB itself continued to new highs above 212 the highest since 2015.  In fact, on the last day of June, corn closed up the 40-cent limit, soybeans up 80, wheat up 34.  Metals, which had been suffering, all closed higher (including palladium up $105), as did all the energies.

And that was with the US dollar index up 0.40!

Remember your CRB history.  The index peaked in June 2008 at 474.  The Elliott fifth wave climaxed at 101 last April.  Like a compressed spring, it required only 14 months to retrace 30% of a 12-year downtrend.

Now what?  There is the old saying in commodities that the cure for high prices is high prices.  But what is high?  The stock market has continued to roll merrily along since 2009 a twelve-year bull market that took the S&P500 from 667 to now test 4300.

So will this commodity inflation be transitory?

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Tuesday, 27 July 2021 04:37
 

July 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Energy:  this 278-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including crack and product spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, orange juice, sugar, cotton, and rice; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery; with 84 seasonal and spread strategies.


Recently published:

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities


The CRB more than doubled in 13 months!?!

The pandemic panic collapsed the old CRB Index to a far more than 20-year low last April when it traded at 101.48.  This May, it reached as high as 209.52 the highest in 6 years.

Of course, corn traded 244% of its low; soybeans more than doubled; wheat rose 64%.  Crude traded 1,000% of its low and that is if you ignore its one-day trade at -$40.32 for immediate delivery!  Copper traded 248% as high a new at least multi-decade high!  Lumber went from $252 to $1,711.

They will not keep up that pace.  In fact, many may well decline now.  But is this only transitory inflation?  Is it like trying to go from 0 to 60 by stomping on the accelerator from a standing stop and having the tires spin and then suddenly gain traction?  Is it only the result of supply chain disruptions?

Or is there something else at work?  Have market-driven interest rates made a secular bottom?  Has the US dollar entered a long-term bear market?  Will crop problems more often crop up around the world?  Will global tensions continue to rise?  Will the stock market go up forever?

What is gold trying to say?

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Sunday, 04 July 2021 11:04
 
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