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June 2019 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press...

1.  2019 Historical Softs: this 156-page volume contains seasonal analysis for coffee, cocoa, cotton, orange juice, sugar, rough rice; 83 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

2.  2019 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat KC, CBOT, and MGE; 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

3.  2019 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, and also live/feeder cattle spreads; historical daily charts; cash prices at several locations; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

4.  2019 Historical Lean Hogs & Hog/Cattle Spreads:
a 126-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including hog/cattle spreads; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Now where to?  The CRB Index closed April only a little higher (at 184.25) than March (at 183.75).  But it made its high for April early and its low late.

In Dec/Jan, the Index made a low near 168, a double bottom with the multi-year low of June 2017 at 166.48.  It has since trended up, reaching a new high for the move in April at 189.68 still off its May 2018 peak at 206.95.  The pullback since to its April low of 183.66 may be functioning as a retest of it 200-dma at 186.61 and its 50-dma at 184.66.  The April close leaves price below the 50 below the 200 - certainly one definition of a downtrend.

Although price is below both, the 50-week ma (at 188.35) remained above the 200-week (at 186.82).  The combination rejected this April advance.

Seasonal influences in May?  Wheat normally declines into mid June as harvest intensifiese.  Only 15% of the corn crop was planted as of April 29 versus the 5-year average of 27%.

Precious metals tend to be weak into summer.  Energies are not usually as "energetic."  Hogs have been strong due to China's hog herd disease, but the cattle herd is larger than assumed.

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 02 May 2019 10:17
 

May 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press...

1.  2019 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat KC, CBOT, and MGE; 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

2.  2019 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, and also live/feeder cattle spreads; historical daily charts; cash prices at several locations; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

3.  2019 Historical Lean Hogs & Hog/Cattle Spreads:  a 126-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including hog/cattle spreads; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.


CRB & Physical Commodities


Well, that's some improvement.  The CRB Index closed February at 182.75.  March closed at 183.75, with a higher monthly high and low.

The double bottom in December/January near 168 (which may ultimately be a double, higher bottom with its 2017 low near 166) has now generated a move to almost 186, the high of March.  Its close for the month leaves it between its 50-day moving average (dma) at 181.51 and its 200-dma at 187.66.  It is also below its weekly moving averages, but its 50-week ma at 189.98 is above its 200-week ma at 187.75 (although both are declining.)

Now what?  Crude oil and gasoline have both been strong, with crude exceeding $61.50 on the first day of April.  'Tis the season for driving conditions to improve, daily consumption of gasoline to rise, and the industry to accumulate inventories of gasoline even as it replenishes depleged stocks of heating oil.  Natural gas has held its own.  Corn and soybeans have yet to be planted and will thus be subject to both planting and growing weather conditions for months.  Some analysts believe winter wheat acreage is the lowest in a century.

What if US-China trade talks unleash Chinese buying?  What if the US dollar tumbles?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 01 April 2019 17:12
 

April 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat KC, CBOT, and MGE; 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

2019 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, and also live/feeder cattle spreads; historical daily charts; cash prices at several locations; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2019 Historical Lean Hogs & Hog/Cattle Spreads:  a 126-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including hog/cattle spreads; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.


CRB & Physical Commodities


Follow through!!!  After closing December at an 18-month low near 170, the CRB Index completed a December/January double bottom at 168 and reversed to close January at about 180.  Between mid January and mid February, the Index traded in a bull flag formation from which it then broke out to trade as high as 185 before closing Februaryat 183.  From that high it may now be pulling back to retest its flag breakout near 180 and/or its 50-day moving average, currently near 178 -but slowly beginning to rise.

The question now before us then is whether a pullback will hold 178-180.  If so, the CRB may be building an inverted head-and-shoulders bottom.  If so, the head would be 168 and the neckline at 185.

What could be bullish that might drive the Index higher?  Wheat will soon emerge from dormancy and be vulnerable, with winter wheat acreage thought to be at a 100-year low.  US corn, soybeans, and cotton have yet to be planted.  What about energy, the most consequential complex?  Is natural gas building a long-term base?  What will Mideast crude oil suppliers do?  Will US/Chinese trade talks resolve tariff and trade issues?

And perhaps of greatest import, what will the US dollar do?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 05 March 2019 08:09
 

March 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, and also live/feeder cattle spreads; historical daily charts; cash prices at several locations; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

2019 Historical Lean Hogs & Hog/Cattle Spreads:  a 126-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including hog/cattle spreads; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.


CRB & Physical Commodities


What a difference a month might make!  The CRB Index ended the year at 169.80 not far off its 18-month low of 166.48.  Those looking for a collapse through that low were immediately disappointed.

The Index had made a high in May at 206.95, fell, rallied to a new high in October at 201.72.  But as the stock market, so too did the CRB.  At the end of 2018, it looked bleak for commodities.

But within about a week over the transition to a new year, the Index made daily lows of 168.21, 168.37 and then 168.26 a sequence suggesting equilibrium.  That may seem like minutiae, but we are looking for hints to whether disinflationary markets have evolved into inflationary ones.

That January then reversed December adds to mounting evidence offered by a possible turn downward it the US dollar, for example, which itself is reinforced by stronger gold prices.  Energy markets are again flickering with potential.  If/when US-China tariff talks reach an agreement, soybeans and corn may rally, at least modestly.  US wheat acreage, to be estimated February 8 in a release delayed by government shutdown, could be historically low.  What if weather continues to be erratic?  Could agricultural production be at risk?  Maybe we better
be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Monday, 04 February 2019 09:49
 

February 2019 Editors Comments

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CRB & Physical Commodities


Conventional wisdom says the Chinese economy is and will continue slowing, decreasing demand for commodities in general and depressing their prices.  Is that why the CRB Index had such a bearish December?

After making its most recent high at 200.04 in early October, the CRB fell again through much of December, making a low on Christmas Eve at 168.21 just above its June 2017 low at 166.48.  After a powerful surge on the day after Christmas up to 173.15, it spent the remainder of 2018 between those two levels.

But if daily and weekly indicators were oversold before, they are grossly oversold now.  The 50-dma is below the 200-dma, but 50-week is above the 200-week.

Gold, grains, and precious metals were all higher on the first day of 2019.  Does that also suggest it is overdone?  The market will find out more when USDA reports are released January 11, but it has been suggested that US winter wheat acreage could be the lowest in 100 years.  Precious metals may have begun a trend higher.  Silver, for example, appears to have broken out of a multi-month low.  Has crude oil put in a low?  Was that natural gas rally in December just a fluke - or a harbinger?


Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Wednesday, 02 January 2019 15:54
 
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