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August 2020 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Energy: this 280-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including product and crack spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

So, with stocks especially the NASDAQ soaring, and on or about June 30:  Gold hit $1800?  Natural gas may have finally hit bottom at $1.432?  Corn set a bottom just as pollination season arrived along with a couple of weeks of temperatures forecast to be above 90 degrees in central Illinois?

Have copper, cotton, coffee, sugar all set major bottoms in the last couple of months?  Crude oil may not go anywhere but is poking at +$40 rather than -40 (a forever bottom?)

According to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (which most closely tracks the old CRB Index and is available at https://www.mrci.com/client/djubs.php), the panic low made in April was the lowest since June 1975. To believe that either or both will be exceeded would seem to require a fear of absolute economic catastrophe.

Will seemingly unlimited money creation around the globe allow that to happen before generating at least a bout of inflation?  Will politicians allow debt to crush everything and everyone?  Or will they do anything and everything to prevent it?

Not only is the season of heat and hurricanes upon us also the political.  Whither thou goest US dollar?

What can you possibly do but ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke




Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 July 2020 08:55
 

July 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

Whew!  Was that it?

The Bloomberg (DJ-UBS) Commodity Index (with weekly and monthly charts updated daily at https://www.mrci.com/client/djubs.php) is perhaps the closest readily available to the old CRB Index.  In 2008, it reached as high as 238.52.  This past April, it traded at 58.87 less than 25% of that high and its lowest low since July 1975.

Will that prove to be a historic low?  In March it had made a slightly higher low and bounced modestly.  But when it returned in April and made its new (final?) low, it spent the next five weeks recovering to close out May at 64.41.  That confirms nothing yet, other than we now have a low of some significance with which to work and by which to judge future market behavior.

Will seasonal behavior return to markets?  Crops will have growing seasons and harvests.  Energies will face summer and winter weather.  Interest rates and currencies will continue to be influenced by fiscal years.

But have markets become too skewed by once-in-a-lifetime health, economic, political, monetary, and fiscal factors?  Are they too distorted to trade "normally"?  With so many trillions of dollars, euros, yen,
etc., shoved into economies world-wide ...

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Monday, 01 June 2020 15:42
 

June 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

Wow - what a strange world!  You have to pay someone -anyone! $40 to take a barrel of crude oil off your hands!?!  Some traders would have been delighted to swap their barrel for a roll of toilet paper!


Yes, of course, there are billions of dollars worth of bonds issued globally with negative interest rates.  (Lend me $100 today and I'll gladly pay you $97 in 10 years!)  Will someone eventually pay you to take a gallon of gasoline, a steer, a bushel of wheat, a bale of cotton, an ounce of gold?  (Please, just take it away!)

Yes, there were technical considerations specific to futures.  Delivery dates, no storage, etc.  But, really!?

A world in which crude oil trades at -$40 but gold is approaching its all-time high.  Meat-packing plants close because of COVID-19 even as cattle marketings for March were the second highest since the series began in 1996 - and placements at the lowest on record!

A world in which some economists believe the US economy could shrink 30% (annualized) during the second quarter and unemployment approach Great Depression levels - and the stock market soars!

Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (available at MRCI Online), is lowest since mid 1975.

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Monday, 01 June 2020 15:42
 

May 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

 

Wow!

We will keep our comments to a minimum this month, given that the world and its financial markets seem to change more dramatically each day than they might have in a year not long ago.  What seems applicable today may no longer be so tomorrow - let alone in a month or two.

We do note, however, that some commodity indices, such as the Bloomberg (DJ-UBS) Commodity Index, updated daily for subscribers at MRCI Online, made new multi-decade lows - and decisively so.  For  example, the aforementioned DJ-UBS index, similar to the CRB, fell to its lowest low since 1975 - and put that low in danger!

Crude oil is struggling to hold $20.  But natural gas has kept eroding.  And gasoline?  There is talk of 99-cent gasoline coming to the Midwest!  Is it appropriate that hogs and cattle closed limit down on April Fool's Day?  And that soybeans were 15-23 cents lower?  Wheat 17?  Corn 5-10?

Copper and platinum got smashed in March - and that despite platinum miners in South Africa closing mines and declaring force majeure.  Investors ran for the safety of bonds - with 10-year yields less than 1%!

And the US dollar?  First it collapsed 5% in two weeks, then it ran up 9% in two weeks, only to fall back to where it started.  Markets are manic, so be careful out there.

Still, maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Thursday, 02 April 2020 02:34
 

April 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Wow!!!  An historic waterfall decline across the board in stocks, commodities, and interest rates at the end of February smashed commodity indices to multi-year lows!  Did/will panic set bottoms?

Consider the Bloomberg (DJS-UBS) Commodity Index, updated daily at MRCI Online, whose subgroup weights include about 37% energies, 28% agriculture, 17% industrial and 13% precious metals, and nearly 6% livestock.  This index closed February at the lowest low in more than 40 years!

Now what?  During those last 40 years, the index always found support whenever it dropped into the range 71-75.  It just closed at 70.97. Does that set up rally potential or suggest the trend will continue lower still?  On the first day of March, gold was up $30, crude oil up $2, grains and soybeans up modestly, and cattle up limit.

Many market analysts anticipate that central banks around the world, including the US FED, will try to rescue economies and markets by lowering interest rates and flooding economies with money. So ...

... what about the dollar?  Could that trigger a currency war?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Friday, 20 March 2020 05:13
 
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Amid explosive interest in China, MRCI will now update charts of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock indices daily! http://www.mrci.com/client/hilite/hl001.php