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May 2021 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year!

Hottest off the press:

2021 Historical Soy Complex: this 173-page volume features seasonal analysis of soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; seasonal patterns weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including crush and product spreads; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

2021 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and CBOT, KC, and MGE wheat; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including inter-market spreads for corn/oats, corn/wheat, and among the several wheats; 122 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:   this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder  cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and  several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66  seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads:   this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for  spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and  weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical  daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for  hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

Correction?  Consolidation?

After making a significant low last October below 143, the CRB Index marched steadily higher.  In January it closed 31 points higher than that.  With energies leading the way crude oil above $67! and corn and soybeans driving higher and metals still elevated, the Index traded more than 53 points above its October low before closing February over 190.

The Index stalled in March, unable to make a new high in conditions considered overbought by oscillators, such as the weekly RSI over 80 and the daily over 90.  The latter ended March near 50.

So, is that all there is?  Corn planting begins in April, with soybeans right behind.  After the USDA estimated surprisingly low planting intentions for both crops, the first several deliveries for each closed locked limit up on 3/31!  Will crude oil find support after a $10 correction?  Gasoline usage will now rise.  Did natural gas make a bottom?  Will a global recovery drive copper to new highs?  What about gold and silver? Both rallied on 3/31. Are they in a large-degree correction, and is it complete?  If so, what does that suggest for future prices?

Will a flood of US dollars drive a solid economic recovery in which commodities are in great demand?

What else can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

 


Last Updated on Thursday, 01 April 2021 04:40
 

April 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year!

Hottest off the press:

2021 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads:  this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

Wow!  And whoa!

After a pandemic-driven multi-decade low in April 2020 at 101.48, the CRB Index soared to 154.54 (53 points) by the first week of September.  It consolidated through October, bumping along the underside of the 50-week moving average and trading back down to 142.70.  But in November it broke out of that bull flag and soared again into the next-to-last day of February, reaching 196.15 (another 53 points!)  But markets got hit hard the last day, with the index closing at 190.43.

Believe it or not, even with that sell-off, that close was above all of 2019 and 2020!

So, time for another correction?  The 50-dma is 176.42, the 200-dma at 153.59.  Was that a shot across the bow?  There is much discussion going around about whether commodities have entered another supercycle, perhaps like the 1970s.

Either way, trading opportunities are eye-opening.  Gold, of course, reached an all-time high in August but was $370 lower in late February.  Copper is not far off its 10-year high.  Lumber has soared to above $1,000/mbf.  Soybeans and corn are at 9-year highs.

And what abut the US dollar?

What else can you do but ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Monday, 01 March 2021 08:46
 

March 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year!

Hottest off the press:

2021 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle:  this 148-page volume features seasonal analysis of both live and feeder cattle; seasonal patterns and weekly charts for delivery month and several spreads; cash & basis charts; historical daily charts; 66 seasonal and spread strategies.

2021 Historical Lean Hogs/Hogs vs Cattle Spreads:  this 126-page volume features seasonal analysis for lean hogs and for spreads between lean hogs and live cattle; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; historical daily charts; and 46 seasonal and spread lean hog strategies and 30 for hog vs. cattle spreads.


Physical Commodities

New macro uptrend or large-degree correction?

After the pandemic low in April at 101.48, the old CRB has continued to trend higher into January, reaching 176.85 a 74% move in nine months.  Granted, that low was compressed.  But 74%?

Yes, gold and silver soared, with gold reaching a new all-time high at $2,089.  But copper Dr. Copper rose from $1.97 in March to as high as $3.73 in January.  Crude oil even ignoring the trade into negativity at -$40.32!!! rose from $6.68 to $53.87.

Among the big and surprising winners were soybeans and corn.  China apparently took advantage of low prices and rebuilt grain reserves as she tries to rebuild her hog herd.  Soybeans led, trading from $8.08 to as high as $14.36.  Corn went along from $3.01 to $5.53.  And both with large overhang supply.

So, the argument of the day is whether to expect inflation or deflation or both?  Both sides have valid points.  The inflation side says the US dollar has entered a new phase of weakness because of low interest rates and money printing.  The opposing side says the velocity of money cannot rise because of the drag from enormous and growing debt and the probability of a weakening economy even if the virus is soon contained.

So, what can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Monday, 01 February 2021 05:50
 

February 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Indices: this 186-page volume features seasonal analysis for US stock indices SP500, SP400 Midcap, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, DJIA and several international; includes 62 strategies for US indices and 108 for those international.

2020 Historical Metals: an 84-page volume featuring seasonal analysis for gold, silver, platinum, and copper; with 42 seasonal strategies and 30 spreads for year-round trading ideas.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

Wow!  Another huge month for the CRB!

The Index traded as high as 187.71 in early January 2020 before collapsing to 101.48 before the pandemic.  But then it began a recovery.

After trending up into August/Septenber, the market consolidated.  Finding support twice in October generated a charge through the 50-week moving average in November.  After that break out, it soared through December to close on its recovery high of 167.80.  It is now poised to challenge the 200-week moving average at 175.60 and then the 2019-20 highs 187.71-189.68.

Gold reached an all-time at 2089.  Silver tested $30.  Copper traded above $3.64 the highest in nearly eight years.  Having never traded above $500 before 2018, lumber futures touched $1,000 in 2020.  After trading at -$40.32 in April, crude oil tested $50.

Despite trade tariffs, corn and soybeans made lows early in the year and never looked back even as excellent US crops were harvested.

Governments around the world fought economic distress with both fiscal and monetary weapons.  The US dollar closed the year at its weakest since April 2018 and put that even low in jeopardy.  But many other global currrencies were debased.  What will 2021 bring?

What can you possibly do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Monday, 04 January 2021 10:46
 

January 2021 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Indices: this 186-page volume features seasonal analysis for US stock indices SP500, SP400 Midcap, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, DJIA and several international; includes
62 strategies for US indices and 108 for those international.

2020 Historical Metals: an 84-page volume featuring seasonal analysis for gold, silver, platinum, and copper; with 42 seasonal strategies and 30 spreads for year-round trading ideas.

2020 Historical Forex: this 218-page volume features seasonal analysis of the Australian, Canadian, New Zealand, and US dollars, the British pound, Japanese yen, EuroFX, Swiss franc, and Mexican Peso; weekly charts for each delivery month; several inter-market spreads; best of all, 236 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2020 Historical Brent: the perfect complement to 2020 Historical Energy highlighted immediately below, this 220-page volume features seasonal analysis for Brent Crude - upon which much of the world's oil is priced - and gasoil; with 74 trading strategies, including spreads between crude light and Brent crude.

2020 Historical Energy: this 280-page volume features seasonal analysis for crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads, including product and crack spreads; with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Softs:  this 154-page volume features seasonal analysis for cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads; presents 84 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Wow!  Now that was impressive!

The old CRB had its best monthly showing in years.  After closing October at 144.81, testing on that last day its low for the month of 142.59, the Index looked as if it was ready to collapse.  But on the first trading day of November, it opened lower and then burst higher - foreshadowing a dynamic run throughout the month.  By the next-to-last day of November, the Index had traded up to 161.10 - the highest since early March and above the 50-week moving average of about 149.

Was it relief the election was over?  Excitement over the development of coronavirus vaccines that would eventually allow not only the US but also the global economy to recover and go on to new heights?

Though gold and silver struggled to consolidate(?), grains and soybeans continued to rally right through harvest!  Copper soared.  Natural gas traded as if it had made a bottom of some significance, and the petroleum complex worked erratically higher.  Some softs rallied.

What now?  Remarkably, both the US dollar and precious metals ended the month grossly oversold on daily/weekly charts, with the dollar also oversold on monthly charts.  Does that mean both will fall farther?  Both primed to rally?  One fall and one rally?

What can you possibly do but ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Monday, 04 January 2021 10:34
 
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Amid explosive interest in China, MRCI will now update charts of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock indices daily! http://www.mrci.com/client/hilite/hl001.php