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February 2020 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year! Hottest off the press.......

2019 Historical Indices:  this 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Jailbreak?  Pivotal turning point?

The venerable CRB Index has come alive!!  On the day before Christmas, it closed at its highest since April!

It now well above its 50-dma, which itself is in bullish alignment above the 200-dma.  It is also above its 50-week ma, and has now closed above its 200-week ma - although the latter is still above the former.

To recap, the index made a double weekly bottom in December '18-January '19 at 168.21-168.26, its 2019 high at 189.68, and then a triple weekly bottom at 167.38-167.19 - an equilibrium sequence.  It has since been working slowly higher to approach its 2019 high.

What has been the driver?  Grains, metals, energies have all strengthened - and the US dollar weakened.

Are gold, silver, and platinum ready to make a jailbreak of their own?  Rather than trend lower as some analysts had suggested, they have turned up to retest recent highs.  If they breach the latter, is it a big bull market?  Why is crude oil back above $60?  Can natural gas go any lower - or is ready to rise, also?  Have grains and soybeans made multi-month or even multi-year lows?

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 02 January 2020 09:32
 

January 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:


2019 Historical Indices this 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities


Thud again!

After the commodity CRB Index closed October at 176.89, it traded higher in November, reaching 182.44.  That was well above the 50-day moving average (dma, currently 177.44) and even the 200-dma (178.85). 
However, it collapsed on the last day of the month to make a new monthly low (176.54) and lower monthly close (176.66).  Ugh!

What happened?  Grains, metals, energies all slumped.  But all three complexes have tended to rise from December into January and beyond.  So December will be a good test.

For example, all three members of the petroleum complex crude, gasoline, heating oil - have tended to set a significant low in or by mid December after refiners dump crude and its products to avoid year-end states taxes.  Refiners then need to replenish depleted crude stocks, heating oil consumption continues high, and gasoline values begin slowly to rise.  Gold, silver, platinum, and copper have usually rallied at least into February.  Corn, soybeans, and cotton tend to stage multi-month post-harvest recoveries.

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 December 2019 12:45
 

December 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Indices

This 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.

Recently published:


2019 Historical Metals

This 84-page volume contains seasonal analysis of gold, silver, copper, and platinum, including gold/silver spreads and gold/platinum spreads; with 72 seasonal and spread trading strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Boo!  A higher close?  With harvest pressure?  With metals and energies struggling?

Yes, the CRB Index did indeed close higher on Halloween than at the end of September 176.89 versus 173.94.  In itself, that may seem irrelevant.  And maybe it is.

But the high for the month tested the 200-dma and the 50-week ma.  The weekly chart shows that, since June 2017, the CRB has made seven 7! weekly lows between 166.48 and 168.26.

Does that suggest a long-term bottom is forming?  If so, does that then suggest inflation, at least commodity inflation, is bubbling?

Corn and soybean harvest will soon be over, relieving immediate supply pressures.  Crude oil and products remain in a range.  Is long-term consolidation taking place?  Members of the softs complexhave been beaten to a pulp already.  Livestock prices are high but not falling and China, where pork is a primary meat, is seeing its hog herds devastated by disease.  Gold, silver, and platinum are perky at worst.

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Saturday, 02 November 2019 17:10
 

November 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

1. 2019 Historical Metals

This 84-page volume contains seasonal analysis of gold, silver, copper, and platinum, including gold/silver spreads and gold/platinum spreads; with 72 seasonal and spread trading strategies.

2. 2019 Historical Interest Rates

This 206-page volume contains seasonal analysis of US debt instrument futures for 30-yr bonds, 10-/5-/2-yr Treasuries, and Eurodollars along with instruments from LIFFE, EUREX, SGX, SFE international exchanges; complete with 186 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

3. 2019 Historical Forex

This 236-page volume contains seasonal analysis of AD, BP, CD, USD, EU, JY, MP, NZ, and SF futures; seasonal patterns for each delivery month and intermarket spreads; includes 236 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

A bottom in June 2017 at 166.48.  Another the last week in 2018 at 168.21 and the first week of 2019 at 168.26.  Now three at 167.38 (on 8/7/19), 167.64 (8/23/19), and finally 167.79 (9/3/19).

Could that be a big triple bottom, with one made in each of the years 2017-2019?  

After the September low, it rose to 183.33 taking out the August high and testing the 50-week moving average.  However, it ended the month at only 173.94 right on the 50-day moving average.

On the first day of October, corn and soybeans rose despite harvest getting underway but coincident with the typical seasonal bottom for both, and wheat was modestly higher.

Gold and silver were both higher.  Was the preceding sell-off a washout or the beginning of a larger decline?  After the spike up in response to the Saudi oil bombing, crude oil sold off to below where it was just prior, but products held firm on 10/1.

On that same day, the US dollar made a new high since April 2017 but then reversed, at least for the day.

Now what?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Wednesday, 02 October 2019 05:55
 

October 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Interest Rates

This 206-page volume contains seasonal analysis of US debt instrument futures for 30-yr bonds, 10-/5-/2-yr Treasuries, and Eurodollars along with instruments from LIFFE, EUREX, SGX, SFE international exchanges; complete with 186 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2019 Historical Forex

This 236-page volume contains seasonal analysis of AD, BP, CD, USD, EU, JY, MP, NZ, and SF futures; seasonal patterns for each delivery month and intermarket spreads; includes 236 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Ugh!  After closing July at 178.53, the CRB gapped a full point lower on the first trading day of August and remained lower all month.  In fact, the high was made on that first day at 177.50.

It then made its low at 167.89, bounced, fell back but made a slightly higher low at 167.64, and then closed the month softly at 170.36.

And all this with gold, silver, and platinum breaking out to new multi-year highs!  Are they now in new major bull markets?  If so, what does that portend?

But crude oil, its products, natural gas, grains, and most of the softs markets remain in either bear markets or else trading, at best, sideways.

Now what?  Are bonds in a bubble?  Will the yield curve fully invert?  Will US rates be cut again and again?  There are even some analysts who believe the the FOMC may eventually be forced to join other central banks with negative rates!

The stock market and economy look wobbly.  The ISM dropped to 49.1% (indicating US manufacturing shrank) in August.  Will unemployment start to rise?  The US dollar has continued to rise.  But for how long?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 September 2019 16:35
 
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