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October 2019 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Interest Rates

This 206-page volume contains seasonal analysis of US debt instrument futures for 30-yr bonds, 10-/5-/2-yr Treasuries, and Eurodollars along with instruments from LIFFE, EUREX, SGX, SFE international exchanges; complete with 186 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2019 Historical Forex

This 236-page volume contains seasonal analysis of AD, BP, CD, USD, EU, JY, MP, NZ, and SF futures; seasonal patterns for each delivery month and intermarket spreads; includes 236 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Ugh!  After closing July at 178.53, the CRB gapped a full point lower on the first trading day of August and remained lower all month.  In fact, the high was made on that first day at 177.50.

It then made its low at 167.89, bounced, fell back but made a slightly higher low at 167.64, and then closed the month softly at 170.36.

And all this with gold, silver, and platinum breaking out to new multi-year highs!  Are they now in new major bull markets?  If so, what does that portend?

But crude oil, its products, natural gas, grains, and most of the softs markets remain in either bear markets or else trading, at best, sideways.

Now what?  Are bonds in a bubble?  Will the yield curve fully invert?  Will US rates be cut again and again?  There are even some analysts who believe the the FOMC may eventually be forced to join other central banks with negative rates!

The stock market and economy look wobbly.  The ISM dropped to 49.1% (indicating US manufacturing shrank) in August.  Will unemployment start to rise?  The US dollar has continued to rise.  But for how long?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 September 2019 16:35
 

September 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports


MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Historical Forex: this 236-page volume contains seasonal analysis of AD, BP, CD, USD, EU, JY, MP, NZ, and SF futures; seasonal patterns for each delivery month and intermarket spreads; includes 236 seasonal and spread strategies.

Recently published:

2019 Brent Crude: the perfect complement to the 2019 Historical Energy report (see below), this 120-page volume contains seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil and gasoil; with 68 seasonal and spread strategies, including Brent/Crude Light spreads.

2019 Historical Energy: this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas; includes seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several spreads against each; with product and crack spreads; best of all, 190 seasonal and spread strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities


Oh, my!  After closing June at 181.04, the CRB closed July at only 178.53 barely hugging its 50-dma at 178.41.  Then on August 1, the president announced another round of tariffs on Chinese imports to begin Sepember 1.  Crude oil plunged almost $5/barrel intraday, palladium (although not a component) was more than $100/ounce lower, grains dropped sharply.

The CRB has been coiling since its last major low in June 2017, with a progression of lower interim highs and higher interim lows.  Will this early August debacle force a downside breakout?

Normally NORMALLY corn and soybeans could be expected to generally decline into harvest now.  But how much corn acreage and and both corn and soybean yield will be lost due to late planting?  What will the August USDA reports say?  Will turmoil in the Middle East support crude. even as that market prepares to enter the so-called shoulder season?  Will natural gas continue to weaken into hurricane season?

Gold seems to be want to go higher after trading at 6-year highs!  Silver broke out of a 2-year double bottom.  Bonds soared to a 2-year high as the yield curve inverted.  Recesssionary warnings?

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Friday, 02 August 2019 08:21
 

August 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2019 Brent Crude: the perfect complement to the 2019 Historical Energy report (see below), this 120-page volume contains seasonal analysis for Brent crude oil and gasoil; with 68 seasonal and spread strategies, including Brent/Crude Light spreads.

Recently published:

2019 Historical Energy: this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas; includes seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several spreads against each; with product and crack spreads; best of all, 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

2019 Historical Soybean Complex: a 174-page volume containing seasonal analysis for soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; includes seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; 128 seasonal, spread, product, crush strategies.

2019 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat KC, CBOT, and MGE; 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Mini-boom to bust?

The CRB closed May at a disappointing 175.36.  Within days it had traded down to 172.02.  But then grains took off, gold soared, and crude oil rallied.  On the last day of the month, the venerable Index made its high for the month at 183.26 well above its 50-dma at 179.61 and just below its 200-dma at 183.77.

But then the bottom dropped out.  With wheat lower, corn trading limit down, gold having lost its momentum, and crude oil down almost $1, the CRB reversed to close lower in an outside day.

On July 1, gold was down $20, wheat 15-20 cents, corn about 10, beans nearly 15.  Crude struggled but the dollar was sharply higher.

Has the potential commodities recovery already gone bust?  Certainly heavy chart resistance lies just overhead, with the 50-week ma at 184.93 and now below the 200-week at 185.79.

But, for example, the USDA report of June 28 were confusing - if not confused!  When will we get accurate acreage and yield numbers?  How much later will the delayed corn crop pollinate?

Will the dollar rally of July 1 hold?  Or was it the proverbial "dead cat bounce"?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 02 July 2019 09:28
 

July 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press...

1.  2019 Historical Energy: this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas; includes seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month, several spreads against each; with product and crack spreads; best of all, 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

2.  2019 Historical Softs: this 156-page volume contains seasonal analysis for coffee, cocoa, cotton, orange juice, sugar, rough rice; 83 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

3.  2019 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume containing seasonal analysis for soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil; includes seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; 128 seasonal, spread, product, crush strategies.

4.  2019 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat KC, CBOT, and MGE; 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.


CRB & Physical Commodities


Start of a new downtrend - or retesting a breakaway gap?

The CRB Index closed April at 184.25.  The high for May - on the first day of the month! - was only 184.11.  The May low - on the last day of the month! - was 175.32, just a 4 measly ticks lower than the close for May.

That would normally have terribly bearish implications - and maybe it does again.  Energies were largely responsible, with crude oil declining from its April high above $66 to its May close at only $53.30.

But previously bearish-in-the-extreme grains, primarily wheat and corn, took off.  Will it be a short-lived event?  As of May 26, only 58% of the US corn crop was planted versus the 5-year average of 90%.  Soybeans were also behind, with only 29% planted versus the average of 66%.  All may still work out well.  But, if not, it sets up an unexpectedly explosive - and inflationary - situation.  Uncertainty will rule for weeks.

And the US dollar dropped hard to end May and begin June.  Is there more to come?  The CRB?  Just below the May close of 175.36 was a gap left between 12/31/18 and 1/2/19 at 174.19 - 174.36.  Retesting a bullish breakaway gap perhaps?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Thursday, 06 June 2019 05:43
 

June 2019 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press...

1.  2019 Historical Softs: this 156-page volume contains seasonal analysis for coffee, cocoa, cotton, orange juice, sugar, rough rice; 83 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

2.  2019 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis for corn, oats, and wheat KC, CBOT, and MGE; 122 seasonal and spread strategies for year round trading ideas.

3.  2019 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle: this 148-page volume contains seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, and also live/feeder cattle spreads; historical daily charts; cash prices at several locations; 66 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

4.  2019 Historical Lean Hogs & Hog/Cattle Spreads:
a 126-page volume with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including hog/cattle spreads; historical daily charts; 76 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round ideas.


CRB & Physical Commodities

Now where to?  The CRB Index closed April only a little higher (at 184.25) than March (at 183.75).  But it made its high for April early and its low late.

In Dec/Jan, the Index made a low near 168, a double bottom with the multi-year low of June 2017 at 166.48.  It has since trended up, reaching a new high for the move in April at 189.68 still off its May 2018 peak at 206.95.  The pullback since to its April low of 183.66 may be functioning as a retest of it 200-dma at 186.61 and its 50-dma at 184.66.  The April close leaves price below the 50 below the 200 - certainly one definition of a downtrend.

Although price is below both, the 50-week ma (at 188.35) remained above the 200-week (at 186.82).  The combination rejected this April advance.

Seasonal influences in May?  Wheat normally declines into mid June as harvest intensifiese.  Only 15% of the corn crop was planted as of April 29 versus the 5-year average of 27%.

Precious metals tend to be weak into summer.  Energies are not usually as "energetic."  Hogs have been strong due to China's hog herd disease, but the cattle herd is larger than assumed.

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 02 May 2019 10:17
 
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