Moore Research Center, Inc.

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Forex:  this 230-page volume contains seasonal analysis for AD, BP, CD, DX, EU, JY, MP, NE, and SF; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several intermarket spreads; complete with 236 seasonal and spread strategies for year-round trading ideas.

Recently published:

Historical Energy:  this 282-page volume contains seasonal analusis for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; includes product, 3/2/1, and 2/1/1 crush spreads; complete with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Physical Commodities

Bullish or bearish?

Did commodities peak, or are they correctingt?  Inflation, recession, or stagflation?  (Two of those three involve inflation.)

Again, after making a multi-decade low in 2020 near 101, the CRB rose to as high as 329 in mid June 2022.  But, unable to sustain the trend, and at least in part due to the FED beginning to raise interest rates, the Index began a correction s or a downtrend.

By mid July it had fallen to 273, just above its 200-day moving average, whereupon it began to rally again.  By the end of August, it had reached almost 302 retracing just more than half its decline.  But it ended the month with a sharp drop as a monthly Employment report prior to a FED meeting approached.

Higher interest rates tend to curtail demand for crude oil and its products, copper, etc.  But what about supply?  Just a couple of weeks
prior to corn and soybean harvest beginning, prices have not been falling.   How much will yields for corn, wheat, and soybeans be reduced?  Is drier weather worsening or are the last couple years an anomaly?  Has drier weather become a structural factor in food inflation?

And what about the US dollar?

What can you do but ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

Historical Energy: this 282-page volume contains seasonal analysis for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and natural gas; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; includes product, 3/2/1, and 2/1/1 crush spreads; complete with 190 seasonal and spread strategies.

Historical Softs: this 154-page volume contains seasonal analysis of cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, and rice; with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, 84 seasonal and spread strategies.


Physical Commodities

Now it gets difficult.  Again, the CRB Index soared from its pandemic low in April 2020 at 101 up to its recovery high in June 2022 at 329.  And then it declined hard into July to a low of 273.  But it found support in mid July, with a low of 273, before turning back up to close on its July high at 292 just above the June close of 291.  A legitimate reversal?

So, is that the just start of an upward correction?  From its July low, it has retraced 33% back up.  Can it rise farther and, if so, how much?  The question is important, not just for traders but producers and consumers.  For example, do corn, wheat, and soybean producers rush to sell their crops?  Wait for a further bounce?  Store, hold, and hope for a new leg up in price?

The CRB itself will likely chop up and down for a while before tipping its hand as to the next big move.  Inflation?  Recession?  Both?

The US dollar took a beating while the FED made its last rate hike - even as bonds and gold rallied!

The dollar started August oversold and still above its 50-dma.  All markets, stocks and commodities, forex and interest rates, will remain volatile as markets try to figure out the world.

What can you do but ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke