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May 2020 Editors Comments

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Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Soybean: this 174-page volume features seasonal analysis of each member of the soybean complex soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery and several spreads, including those for product and crush; with 128 seasonal and spread strategies.

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

 

CRB & Physical Commodities

 

Wow!

We will keep our comments to a minimum this month, given that the world and its financial markets seem to change more dramatically each day than they might have in a year not long ago.  What seems applicable today may no longer be so tomorrow - let alone in a month or two.

We do note, however, that some commodity indices, such as the Bloomberg (DJ-UBS) Commodity Index, updated daily for subscribers at MRCI Online, made new multi-decade lows - and decisively so.  For  example, the aforementioned DJ-UBS index, similar to the CRB, fell to its lowest low since 1975 - and put that low in danger!

Crude oil is struggling to hold $20.  But natural gas has kept eroding.  And gasoline?  There is talk of 99-cent gasoline coming to the Midwest!  Is it appropriate that hogs and cattle closed limit down on April Fool's Day?  And that soybeans were 15-23 cents lower?  Wheat 17?  Corn 5-10?

Copper and platinum got smashed in March - and that despite platinum miners in South Africa closing mines and declaring force majeure.  Investors ran for the safety of bonds - with 10-year yields less than 1%!

And the US dollar?  First it collapsed 5% in two weeks, then it ran up 9% in two weeks, only to fall back to where it started.  Markets are manic, so be careful out there.

Still, maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Thursday, 02 April 2020 02:34
 

April 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Grains: this 174-page volume contains seasonal analysis of corn, oats, and wheat (CBOT, KC, MGE), with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads; best of all, presents 122 seasonal and spread strategies, both intra- and intermarket.

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

2020 Historical Lumber:
this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Wow!!!  An historic waterfall decline across the board in stocks, commodities, and interest rates at the end of February smashed commodity indices to multi-year lows!  Did/will panic set bottoms?

Consider the Bloomberg (DJS-UBS) Commodity Index, updated daily at MRCI Online, whose subgroup weights include about 37% energies, 28% agriculture, 17% industrial and 13% precious metals, and nearly 6% livestock.  This index closed February at the lowest low in more than 40 years!

Now what?  During those last 40 years, the index always found support whenever it dropped into the range 71-75.  It just closed at 70.97. Does that set up rally potential or suggest the trend will continue lower still?  On the first day of March, gold was up $30, crude oil up $2, grains and soybeans up modestly, and cattle up limit.

Many market analysts anticipate that central banks around the world, including the US FED, will try to rescue economies and markets by lowering interest rates and flooding economies with money. So ...

... what about the dollar?  Could that trigger a currency war?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke


Last Updated on Friday, 20 March 2020 05:13
 

March 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:

2020 Historical Live Cattle/Feeder Cattle this 148-page volume contains seasonal analysis in the cattle complex, with seasonal patterns, weekly charts, and historical daily charts for each delivery month of these two markets; includes cash data for several markets; presents 66 seasonal, LC/LC and FC/FC spreads, and FC/LC spreads.

2020 Historical Lean Hogs & Hogs/Cattle Spreads: this 126-page volume analyzes seasonal movement in lean hogs, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month and several spreads between them, and historical daily charts: contains 76 seasonal and spread strategies in hogs and cattle/hog spreads.

Historical Lumber: this 52-page volume explores seasonality in lumber futures, with seasonal patterns and weekly charts for each delivery month; presents 18 seasonal and spread strategies.



CRB & Physical Commodities

OMG!

The CRB Index ended the year 2019 at 185.79 not far off the high for the year of 189.68 made in April.  On the second day of 2020, it traded up to 187.87.

Only to collapse!  It closed January at 170.31 a monthly loss of more than 8%!  Along the way, it left 5 gaps on its daily chart and 2 on the weekly!  The low at 169.88 was made on the last day of the month.  That was not far off the 2019 low of 167.38 and the 2018 low of 168.21.

Of course, the presumptive cause was China's coronavirus and its potential to disrupt world trade with the world's second largest economy.  Crude oil collapsed almost $10 month-to-month 16%!  Grains and oilseeds fell hard, despite a supposed US-China trade agreement.  Hogs traded 14% lower just in the last 3 days of the month.  Natural gas continued to erode.

It is now grossly oversold on daily indicators such as RSI and MACD.  If if! it holds here and turns up, that could mark a 3-year equilibrium low.  If so, beware commodity inflation.  Is that what gold has been suggesting?  What are bonds trying to say?

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 February 2020 06:52
 

February 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year! Hottest off the press.......

2019 Historical Indices:  this 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.

CRB & Physical Commodities

Jailbreak?  Pivotal turning point?

The venerable CRB Index has come alive!!  On the day before Christmas, it closed at its highest since April!

It now well above its 50-dma, which itself is in bullish alignment above the 200-dma.  It is also above its 50-week ma, and has now closed above its 200-week ma - although the latter is still above the former.

To recap, the index made a double weekly bottom in December '18-January '19 at 168.21-168.26, its 2019 high at 189.68, and then a triple weekly bottom at 167.38-167.19 - an equilibrium sequence.  It has since been working slowly higher to approach its 2019 high.

What has been the driver?  Grains, metals, energies have all strengthened - and the US dollar weakened.

Are gold, silver, and platinum ready to make a jailbreak of their own?  Rather than trend lower as some analysts had suggested, they have turned up to retest recent highs.  If they breach the latter, is it a big bull market?  Why is crude oil back above $60?  Can natural gas go any lower - or is ready to rise, also?  Have grains and soybeans made multi-month or even multi-year lows?

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...

Trade 'em,

Jerry Toepke

Last Updated on Thursday, 02 January 2020 09:32
 

January 2020 Editors Comments

E-mail Print

Special Historical Reports

MRCI publishes a new round of volumes in its series of special reports each year.

Hottest off the press:


2019 Historical Indices this 186-page volume examines seasonality both for major US stock index futures (S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100, Russell, and DJIA) and for several major international indices; with 170 seasonal strategies.


CRB & Physical Commodities


Thud again!

After the commodity CRB Index closed October at 176.89, it traded higher in November, reaching 182.44.  That was well above the 50-day moving average (dma, currently 177.44) and even the 200-dma (178.85). 
However, it collapsed on the last day of the month to make a new monthly low (176.54) and lower monthly close (176.66).  Ugh!

What happened?  Grains, metals, energies all slumped.  But all three complexes have tended to rise from December into January and beyond.  So December will be a good test.

For example, all three members of the petroleum complex crude, gasoline, heating oil - have tended to set a significant low in or by mid December after refiners dump crude and its products to avoid year-end states taxes.  Refiners then need to replenish depleted crude stocks, heating oil consumption continues high, and gasoline values begin slowly to rise.  Gold, silver, platinum, and copper have usually rallied at least into February.  Corn, soybeans, and cotton tend to stage multi-month post-harvest recoveries.

And what about the dollar?

Maybe we better be ready to ...


Trade 'em,


Jerry Toepke



Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 December 2019 12:45
 
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Amid explosive interest in China, MRCI will now update charts of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock indices daily! http://www.mrci.com/client/hilite/hl001.php