MRCI Online and Options Trading

MRCI is often asked "Can I use MRCI research to trade options and, if so, how?" The follow-up question then is "How do I use MRCI's volatility research?"

Every trader, before placing his first order, should ask himself, "What mechanisms do I want to trade? Do I want to trade only futures, only options, or do I want to hedge futures positions with options to define risk?" Everyone's methodology will grow over time, and the answer may change; but this question will continue to underlie the decisions made and be revisited time and again.

What you are not going to see here are complex formulas that provide the mathematics of trading options. Likewise, we will not directly discuss Premium, Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, and Rho, the fundamental elements of options trading. If one does not already understand these, or does not already know what the various options strategies are and how to use them, then we have the following suggestions:

1. Buy one or more books on options trading which are written at the level you require. Everyone needs something different, but some possibilities are:
   1. Options Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques - Sheldon Natenberg
   2. CBOT Handbook of Futures and Options - CBOT
   3. Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options - James B. Bittman
   4. McMillan on Options - Lawrence G. McMillan
2. Visit a web-site with educational options information. There are probably many more, but two such are:
   1. http://www.theoptionsguide.com/
   2. http://www.investopedia.com/features/options-101.aspx
3. Attend seminars or webinars which provide options education.
4. Additionally, utilize an options trading platform with intra-day data, some of which will have training, seminars, or webinars available. Some examples (with no implied recommendation) are:
   1. thinkorswim
   2. TradeStation
   3. Optionomics
   4. OptionVue
   5. CQG

It is far beyond the scope of any single essay to outline all the possibilities for utilizing options to replace or hedge outright or spread positions with any of the possible variations using options. There are various synthetic positions, straddles, strangles, covered calls, naked puts, etc. The possible combinations are as varied as are the opinions of traders. Ultimately, a trader must understand why he wants to use options and what various option strategies can provide when executing trading strategies.

It is every individual trader's responsibility to be as knowledgeable as possible in his craft. Consider these three specific items pertaining to options trading:

1. Be very aware of where the volume is because the Bid/Ask spread can be brutal. This is true for either futures or options and why an intraday platform is valuable.
2. Be aware of volatility levels - both in the market generally and for individual strikes.
3. Take a look at some type of covered write as an alternative to naked futures positions to assist in defining, or possibly limiting, risk.

First, let's take a look at "How can MRCI research be used to trade options?" This particular question really should be "How do I use options to trade MRCI Research?" and its inverse "How do I use MRCI research for options trading?"

How do I use options to trade MRCI Research?

From a seasonal trading viewpoint, upon evaluating a particular seasonal strategy, a trader either agrees, disagrees, or is undecided. An options strategy can be found to attempt to capitalize on the trader's anticipated outcome. To illustrate, the link http://www.theoptionsguide.com/bullish-trading-strategies.aspx at The Options Guide illustrates many bullish options strategies. Additionally, the link http://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx allows a trader to specify filters as to the features of a given strategy based on several factors. The link http://www.investopedia.com/active-trading/options-and-futures/ on Investopedia provides similar guides and tutorials.

Let's look at a specific seasonal strategy. MRCI's April 2019 published research featured a strategy stating that June Live Cattle (CME) had closed higher on 5/12 than on 4/22 in 13 of the last 15 years.

Ultimately, MRCI publishes historical analysis of the futures market - period. It is every trader's responsibility to understand the ramifications of each and every position or strategy and to do the homework required to attempt to maximize the possibility of success. Remember that options can expire before a futures strategy ends.

How do I use MRCI research for options trading?

There are a couple of possibilities here, from the general to the specific. Generically, options traders can be bullish, bearish, or neutral insofar as market direction is concerned. There are options strategies which are designed to optimize results in each type of market.

MRCI Seasonal Patterns

The most typical use for MRCI's Seasonal Patterns is to seek those time periods during which markets move consistently and significantly over time. This is usually represented visually by a sharp short-term change or a long-term trend with minimal deviation. However, they can also be viewed for time periods wherein the market typically moves sideways. Of course, one might wish to analyze historical daily charts to find out whether the apparent sideways movement in a seasonal pattern implies historical "sideways" trading or a market in which direction is a coin toss - sharply up one year but sharply down the next. Both could generate much the same pattern.

An options trader armed with such general seasonal information about a particular market can assume a position with potential to take advantage of either volatile or non-volatile time periods. For example, a trader - either novice or professional - who knows that prices tend to rise over the next two or three months can assume one of the most basic of options positions by buying a call. Buying a call gives one the right but not the obligation to be long at a particular price (the "strike price") at any time between purchase and option expiry. (The purchase price of an option is called the premium, the amount of which is determined primarily by (1) the amount of time to expiry, (2) the distance of the strike price from the current market price, and (3) the level of market volatility.)

Conversely, a trader who seeks to take advantage of a seasonal downtrend can buy a put. Buying a put gives one the right but not the obligation to be short at the strike price at any time between purchase and option expiry.

Unlike an outright futures position, the risk in buying either a put or call is limited to the amount of premium paid. In other words, a long option can expire with its premium worthless, but no additional money is required. The offset to that limited risk, however, is that a large majority of options do expire worthless.

Thus, some more experienced traders prefer to write, or to sell short, an option, hoping thereby to collect premium. Those who sell outright a put or a call are paid the premium immediately but then face theoretically unlimited risk and are required to margin accordingly.

Option traders who like to sell options to collect premium might look for a segment of a seasonal pattern in which the market has tended to meander sideways in a range. For example, a trader who notes a market that tends to trade sideways for a few weeks might estimate the potential boundaries of such a range in the current year and try to sell both puts and calls with strike prices outside that range. Such a strategy, if successful, could collect premium from both sides.

MRCI Seasonal Strategies

MRCI's Seasonal Strategies can be utilized individually to provide more specific direction and timing. As discussed above, a trader could trade a particular seasonal strategy, and utilize a covered write to additionally define risk. One could use synthetic positions to simulate a futures position, but that could just add complications by adding time decay to risk already incurred.

How do I use MRCI's Volatility Research?

There are several option pricing models (Black-Scholes, Whaley Quadratic, and Cox-Ross-Rubinstein to name a few of the more famous). All have particular reasons why they were created. Some are easier to compute, some are more precise, some work better with European style options vs. American style options, etc. The implied volatility utilized in MRCI's Volatility Research is derived from the Black-Scholes model and is downloaded daily from CRB (http://www.crbtrader.com). Realizing fully that implied volatility truly only applies to a specific option strike, the implied volatility as it applies to the underlying futures contract in MRCI's Volatility Research is computed as the four strike average of the implied volatility of the first two out of the money calls and puts.

MRCI's Volatility Research consists of four items which place a market's volatility into historical perspective. The table containing each contract evaluated consists of the most recent implied and historical volatility values, the values for the central tendency (average) of historical volatility, and ±1 standard deviation, the change in implied volatility from the previous day, and how many days it is to option expiration. Additionally there are links to daily, weekly continuation and monthly continuation volatility charts.

At its most basic, similar to buying low and selling high when trading outright stocks or futures, the same concept exists in relation to volatility. A trader doesn't usually want buy high volatility, nor sell low volatility. Both adversely affect the value of the premium. You will pay too much premium if volatility is high, and get too little premium if volatility is low. MRCI's Volatility Research defines how high is high, and how low is low.

1. Table - Provides a snapshot of the most recent day.
   1. IV: Implied Volatility
      1. Number is red if it is more than one standerd deviation (-1SD) below, green if it is more than 1 SD above (+1SD) of Historical Volatility.
   2. HV: 20-day Historical Volatility
      1. Number is red if it is below -1SD, Green if it is above +1SD.
   3. ±1SD: one Standard Deviation above or below the Central Tendency (CTHV)
   4. CTHV: Central Tendency of Historical Volatility (Average)
   5. IV+-%: The percentage the current Implied Volatility (IV) is above or below the Central Tendency (CTHV).
   6. D2Ex: Days to expiration of options for that contract (serial style options using the same underlying futures contract are not represented).
   7. Daily: Link to daily chart
   8. Weekly/Monthly: Links to implied volatility weekly and monthly continuation charts

   Market	IV	HV	+1SD	CTHV	-1SD	IV+-%	D2Ex	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
   Apr19 Live Cattle(CME)	11.69	12.64	18.93	15.23	11.54	-23%	7	Chart	Chart	Chart
   Jun19 Live Cattle(CME)	14.47	12.48	17.21	14.41	11.62	+0%	70	Chart	Chart	Chart
   Aug19 Live Cattle(CME)	13.84	11.14	15.09	12.30	9.52	+12%	126	Chart	Chart	Chart
   Oct19 Live Cattle(CME)	12.78	10.30	13.89	11.12	8.34	+14%	189	Chart	Chart	Chart

2. Daily Chart - Provides relativity for the values pursuant to the current contract, and the daily volatility bands. As well as the relationship between historical and implied volatility.
3. Weekly Continuation Chart - Provides weekly perspective for up to the most recent 10 years of Implied Volatility.
4. Monthly Continuation Chart - Provides monthly perspective for up to the most recent 30 years of Implied Volatility.

Conclusion

Hopefully this essay has provided some points to ponder. There is no holy grail in options any more than there is in stock, futures, or spreads. Trading is hard work and it is every trader's duty to arm themselves with the best tools and the most knowledge, in order to provide the best possible edge.

Know your craft, know the risks, know yourself, and most of all be resilient.