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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jan 31, 2023
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Jan 33147.00 34342.00 32812.00 34086.00 83% 45 26 24 92% 34342.00 36073.06 34086.00
#TRAN Higher Jan 13392.00 14708.00 13256.00 14648.00 96% 45 26 23 88% 14708.00 15807.78 14648.00
#MZ Higher Jan 2430.40 2652.95 2401.40 2652.60 100% 2 1 1 100% 2652.95   2652.60
#VLE Higher Jan 8530.00 9424.00 8464.00 9424.00 100% 39 23 21 91% 9424.00 9985.77 9424.00
#SP Higher Jan 3839.50 4094.25 3794.25 4076.50 94% 45 26 23 88% 4094.25 4313.73 4076.50
EUH3 Higher Jan 107.54 109.63 105.29 108.93 84% 24 8 7 88% 109.63 111.65 108.93
HGH3 Higher Jan 381.05 435.50 370.85 422.60 80% 45 23 21 91% 435.50 475.99 422.60
RBK3 Higher Jan 262.10 283.43 241.32 271.56 72% 37 23 21 91% 283.43 321.16 271.56
NGJ3 Lower Jan 3.917 3.875 2.661 2.741 7% 32 17 15 88% 2.661 2.302 2.741
SK3 Higher Jan 1530.00 1544.75 1472.00 1530.25 80% 45 22 19 86% 1544.75 1661.24 1530.25
CK3 Lower Jan 678.00 686.00 648.25 677.50 77% 45 19 17 89% 648.25 609.38 677.50
KWK3 Lower Jan 882.25 881.50 800.25 871.75 88% 45 21 18 86% 800.25 748.10 871.75
OK3 Higher Jan 364.00 390.25 333.25 387.25 95% 45 19 16 84% 390.25 435.61 387.25
LCJ3 Higher Jan 161.800 163.580 158.550 163.030 89% 45 28 24 86% 163.580 174.022 163.030
FCJ3 Higher Jan 189.635 192.200 184.150 190.050 73% 45 25 22 88% 192.200 201.744 190.050
HEJ3 Lower Jan 95.300 95.400 83.700 86.430 23% 45 19 18 95% 83.700 74.240 86.430
CCK3 Higher Jan 2601 2700 2540 2629 56% 45 16 15 94% 2700 2984 2629
RRH3 Lower Jan 18.39 18.48 17.29 17.82 45% 36 16 15 94% 17.29 15.83 17.82
RRK3 Lower Jan 18.63 18.65 17.62 18.18 55% 36 16 15 94% 17.62 15.82 18.18


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 33147.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 34086.00(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 32812.00(Month Low) to 34342.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 34342.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 36073.06(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 13392.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 14648.00(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 13256.00(Month Low) to 14708.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #TRAN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 14708.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 15807.78(Average Objective).

S&P MidCap 400 Index
The #MZ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2430.40(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2652.60(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 2401.40(Month Low) to 2652.95(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 2 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S&P MidCap 400 Index also closed higher in January than December in 1(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 1, the #MZ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 1 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MZ should exceed 2652.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March.

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 8530.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 9424.00(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 8464.00(Month Low) to 9424.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #VLE went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 9424.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 9985.77(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3839.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 4076.50(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 3794.25(Month Low) to 4094.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 4094.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 4313.73(Average Objective).

March EuroFX(CME)
The EUH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 107.54(Prev Close), the market ended January at 108.93(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 105.29(Month Low) to 109.63(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, EUH went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUH should exceed 109.63(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 111.65(Average Objective).

March Copper(CMX)
The HGH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 381.05(Prev Close), the market ended January at 422.60(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 370.85(Month Low) to 435.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HGH went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should exceed 435.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 475.99(Average Objective).

May RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 262.10(Prev Close), the market ended January at 271.56(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 241.32(Month Low) to 283.43(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, RBK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should exceed 283.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 321.16(Average Objective).

April Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGJ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3.917(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2.741(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 2.661(Month Low) to 3.875(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGJ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 2.661(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2.302(Average Objective).

May Soybeans(CBOT)
The SK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1530.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1530.25(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 1472.00(Month Low) to 1544.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SK should exceed 1544.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1661.24(Average Objective).

May Corn(CBOT)
The CK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 678.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 677.50(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 648.25(Month Low) to 686.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should penetrate 648.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 609.38(Average Objective).

May Wheat(KCBT)
The KWK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 882.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 871.75(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 800.25(Month Low) to 881.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KWK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 800.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 748.10(Average Objective).

May Oats(CBOT)
The OK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 364.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 387.25(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 333.25(Month Low) to 390.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, OK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should exceed 390.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 435.61(Average Objective).

April Live Cattle(CME)
The LCJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 161.800(Prev Close), the market ended January at 163.030(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 158.550(Month Low) to 163.580(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LCJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 163.580(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 174.022(Average Objective).

April Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 189.635(Prev Close), the market ended January at 190.050(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 184.150(Month Low) to 192.200(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCJ should exceed 192.200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 201.744(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEJ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 95.300(Prev Close), the market ended January at 86.430(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 83.700(Month Low) to 95.400(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HEJ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEJ should penetrate 83.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 74.240(Average Objective).

May Cocoa(ICE)
The CCK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2601(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2629(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 2540(Month Low) to 2700(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CCK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2984(Average Objective).

March Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 18.39(Prev Close), the market ended January at 17.82(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 17.29(Month Low) to 18.48(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RRH went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRH should penetrate 17.29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 15.83(Average Objective).

May Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 18.63(Prev Close), the market ended January at 18.18(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 17.62(Month Low) to 18.65(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RRK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRK should penetrate 17.62(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 15.82(Average Objective).
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