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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Oct 31, 2022
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Oct 28726.00 32890.00 28663.00 32733.00 96% 45 26 24 92% 32890.00 34697.18 32733.00
#TRAN Higher Oct 12058.00 13742.00 12125.00 13584.00 90% 45 31 28 90% 13742.00 14763.79 13584.00
#OEX Higher Oct 1625.75 1758.65 1576.90 1740.50 90% 45 27 23 85% 1758.65 1867.36 1740.50
#NQ Higher Oct 10971.00 11681.75 10444.75 11405.50 78% 36 23 21 91% 11681.75 12708.71 11405.50
#QR Higher Oct 1664.70 1782.05 1641.95 1742.25 72% 43 25 22 88% Yes 1919.78 1742.25
#MZ Higher Oct 2203.55 2445.80 2192.25 2433.05 95% 2 2 2 100% 2445.80 2560.61 2433.05
#VLE Higher Oct 7680.00 8536.00 7584.00 8491.00 95% 39 25 21 84% 8536.00 9126.15 8491.00
#SP Higher Oct 3585.50 3905.50 3491.50 3872.00 92% 45 27 23 85% 3905.50 4148.74 3872.00
NQH3 Higher Oct 11141.50 11849.25 10595.25 11563.75 77% 26 17 16 94% 11849.25 12961.29 11563.75
YMH3 Higher Oct 28982 33217 28832 33009 95% 24 16 16 100% 33217 35044 33009
TUH3 Lower Oct 102~291 103~053 102~010 102~125 32% 18 7 6 86% 102~010 101~222 102~125
ADH3 Lower Oct 64.29 65.78 62.11 64.23 58% 35 13 11 85% 62.11 60.70 64.23
EUH3 Higher Oct 99.28 102.02 97.55 99.93 53% 23 10 9 90% 102.02 105.15 99.93
JYH3 Lower Oct 70.49 71.07 67.10 68.52 36% 45 26 23 88% 67.10 64.37 68.52
SFH3 Lower Oct 103.06 103.94 100.20 101.41 32% 45 22 19 86% 100.20 96.92 101.41
NGG3 Lower Oct 6.937 7.278 5.475 6.379 50% 32 19 16 84% 5.475 4.305 6.379
NGH3 Lower Oct 6.028 6.413 4.994 5.717 51% 32 19 16 84% 4.994 4.075 5.717
HEJ3 Higher Oct 85.300 94.680 82.630 93.600 91% 45 25 21 84% 94.680 101.381 93.600
JOK3 Higher Oct 178.90 195.00 175.00 193.60 93% 45 20 17 85% 195.00 212.43 193.60
KCH3 Lower Oct 212.55 216.25 165.95 174.05 16% 45 23 21 91% 165.95 151.15 174.05
CCH3 Higher Oct 2340 2406 2284 2343 48% 45 14 12 86% 2406 2577 2343
CCK3 Higher Oct 2328 2392 2290 2334 43% 45 14 13 93% 2392 2562 2334
LBH3 Higher Oct 458.7 555.0 453.0 460.6 7% 45 28 24 86% 555.0 609.3 460.6


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 28726.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 32733.00(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 28663.00(Month Low) to 32890.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 32890.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 34697.18(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 12058.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 13584.00(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 12125.00(Month Low) to 13742.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 13742.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 14763.79(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1625.75(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1740.50(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 1576.90(Month Low) to 1758.65(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #OEX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 1758.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1867.36(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NQ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 10971.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 11405.50(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 10444.75(Month Low) to 11681.75(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #NQ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NQ should exceed 11681.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 12708.71(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #QR(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1664.70(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1742.25(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 1641.95(Month Low) to 1782.05(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in October than September in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #QR went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #QR should exceed 1782.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1919.78(Average Objective).

S&P MidCap 400 Index
The #MZ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2203.55(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2433.05(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 2192.25(Month Low) to 2445.80(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 2 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S&P MidCap 400 Index also closed higher in October than September in 2(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 2, the #MZ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 2 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MZ should exceed 2445.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 2 years) a potential move toward 2560.61(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 7680.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 8491.00(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 7584.00(Month Low) to 8536.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in October than September in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #VLE went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 8536.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 9126.15(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 3585.50(Prev Close), the market ended October at 3872.00(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 3491.50(Month Low) to 3905.50(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 3905.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 4148.74(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME)
The NQH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 11141.50(Prev Close), the market ended October at 11563.75(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 10595.25(Month Low) to 11849.25(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NQH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NQH should exceed 11849.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 12961.29(Average Objective).

March E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT)
The YMH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 28982(Prev Close), the market ended October at 33009(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 28832(Month Low) to 33217(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, YMH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the YMH should exceed 33217(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 35044(Average Objective).

March 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TUH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 102~291(Prev Close), the market ended October at 102~125(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 102~010(Month Low) to 103~053(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, TUH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TUH should penetrate 102~010(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 101~222(Average Objective).

March Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 64.29(Prev Close), the market ended October at 64.23(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 62.11(Month Low) to 65.78(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ADH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should penetrate 62.11(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 60.70(Average Objective).

March EuroFX(CME)
The EUH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 99.28(Prev Close), the market ended October at 99.93(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 97.55(Month Low) to 102.02(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, EUH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUH should exceed 102.02(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 105.15(Average Objective).

March Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 70.49(Prev Close), the market ended October at 68.52(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 67.10(Month Low) to 71.07(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, JYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 67.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 64.37(Average Objective).

March Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 103.06(Prev Close), the market ended October at 101.41(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 100.20(Month Low) to 103.94(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SFH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should penetrate 100.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 96.92(Average Objective).

February Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGG3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 6.937(Prev Close), the market ended October at 6.379(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 5.475(Month Low) to 7.278(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, NGG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should penetrate 5.475(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 4.305(Average Objective).

March Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 6.028(Prev Close), the market ended October at 5.717(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 4.994(Month Low) to 6.413(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, NGH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 4.994(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 4.075(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 85.300(Prev Close), the market ended October at 93.600(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 82.630(Month Low) to 94.680(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HEJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEJ should exceed 94.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 101.381(Average Objective).

May Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 178.90(Prev Close), the market ended October at 193.60(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 175.00(Month Low) to 195.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Orange Juice(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JOK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOK should exceed 195.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 212.43(Average Objective).

March Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 212.55(Prev Close), the market ended October at 174.05(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 165.95(Month Low) to 216.25(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, KCH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 165.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 151.15(Average Objective).

March Cocoa(ICE)
The CCH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2340(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2343(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 2284(Month Low) to 2406(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should exceed 2406(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2577(Average Objective).

May Cocoa(ICE)
The CCK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2328(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2334(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 2290(Month Low) to 2392(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2392(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2562(Average Objective).

March Lumber(CME)
The LBH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 458.7(Prev Close), the market ended October at 460.6(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 453.0(Month Low) to 555.0(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LBH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 555.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 609.3(Average Objective).
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