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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jun 30, 2022
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#MZ Lower Jun 2514.80 2567.75 2187.40 2268.90 21% 2 1 1 100% 2187.40   2268.90
DXU2 Higher Jun 101.565 105.565 101.445 104.465 73% 36 15 14 93% 105.565 108.069 104.465
HOX2 Higher Jun 362.27 416.71 356.97 362.57 9% 43 22 21 95% 416.71 448.88 362.57
NGV2 Lower Jun 8.073 9.568 5.350 5.409 1% 32 19 16 84% 5.350 4.582 5.409
NGX2 Lower Jun 8.112 9.591 5.467 5.520 1% 32 19 16 84% 5.467 4.854 5.520
SU2 Lower Jun 1544.75 1606.75 1422.25 1475.50 29% 45 25 24 96% 1422.25 1286.43 1475.50
SX2 Lower Jun 1509.50 1584.75 1399.25 1458.00 32% 45 25 24 96% 1399.25 1270.01 1458.00
BOU2 Lower Jun 75.58 80.18 63.87 65.68 11% 45 24 23 96% 63.87 57.17 65.68
BOZ2 Lower Jun 74.72 79.29 63.09 64.46 8% 45 24 23 96% 63.09 56.92 64.46
CU2 Lower Jun 725.00 754.25 627.75 628.75 1% 45 29 26 90% 627.75 545.90 628.75
CZ2 Lower Jun 711.50 749.25 618.75 619.75 1% 45 28 26 93% 618.75 549.09 619.75
WU2 Lower Jun 1097.50 1119.50 881.00 884.00 1% 45 28 24 86% 881.00 801.99 884.00
KWU2 Lower Jun 1172.00 1190.75 950.75 951.75 0% 45 29 26 90% 950.75 873.51 951.75
KWZ2 Lower Jun 1181.00 1200.00 959.75 960.75 0% 45 30 26 87% 959.75 881.20 960.75
OU2 Lower Jun 641.50 645.00 492.75 515.50 15% 45 26 22 85% 492.75 431.71 515.50
LCV2 Higher Jun 136.150 143.400 136.300 138.780 35% 45 23 22 96% 143.400 150.066 138.780
LCZ2 Higher Jun 142.300 148.830 142.485 144.885 38% 45 24 23 96% 148.830 155.101 144.885
FCV2 Higher Jun 170.700 180.135 170.680 178.680 85% 45 24 24 100% 180.135 190.177 178.680
FCX2 Higher Jun 172.735 181.580 172.885 180.700 90% 45 25 25 100% 181.580 191.170 180.700
JOX2 Higher Jun 167.35 178.00 159.75 170.35 58% 45 19 17 89% 178.00 192.60 170.35
KCU1 Lower Jun 164.30 168.65 149.05 159.75 55% 45 33 29 88% 149.05 130.27 183.50
KCZ2 Lower Jun 230.80 240.60 215.10 227.05 47% 45 33 29 88% 215.10 190.82 227.05
CTZ2 Lower Jun 122.45 126.00 91.20 98.84 22% 45 23 20 87% 91.20 82.27 98.84

S&P MidCap 400 Index
The #MZ(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 2514.80(Prev Close), the market ended June at 2268.90(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 2187.40(Month Low) to 2567.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 2 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S&P MidCap 400 Index also closed lower in June than May in 1(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 1, the #MZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 1 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MZ should penetrate 2187.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.

September US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 101.565(Prev Close), the market ended June at 104.465(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 101.445(Month Low) to 105.565(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, DXU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 105.565(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 108.069(Average Objective).

November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 362.27(Prev Close), the market ended June at 362.57(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 356.97(Month Low) to 416.71(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HOX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOX should exceed 416.71(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 448.88(Average Objective).

October Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGV2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 8.073(Prev Close), the market ended June at 5.409(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 5.350(Month Low) to 9.568(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, NGV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should penetrate 5.350(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 4.582(Average Objective).

November Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGX2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 8.112(Prev Close), the market ended June at 5.520(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 5.467(Month Low) to 9.591(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, NGX went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGX should penetrate 5.467(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 4.854(Average Objective).

September Soybeans(CBOT)
The SU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1544.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1475.50(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 1422.25(Month Low) to 1606.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should penetrate 1422.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 1286.43(Average Objective).

November Soybeans(CBOT)
The SX2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1509.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1458.00(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 1399.25(Month Low) to 1584.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SX went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should penetrate 1399.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 1270.01(Average Objective).

September Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 75.58(Prev Close), the market ended June at 65.68(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 63.87(Month Low) to 80.18(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, BOU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 63.87(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 57.17(Average Objective).

December Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 74.72(Prev Close), the market ended June at 64.46(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 63.09(Month Low) to 79.29(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, BOZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should penetrate 63.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 56.92(Average Objective).

September Corn(CBOT)
The CU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 725.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 628.75(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 627.75(Month Low) to 754.25(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, CU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 627.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 545.90(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 711.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 619.75(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 618.75(Month Low) to 749.25(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, CZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 618.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 549.09(Average Objective).

September Wheat(CBOT)
The WU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1097.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 884.00(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 881.00(Month Low) to 1119.50(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, WU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 881.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 801.99(Average Objective).

September Wheat(KCBT)
The KWU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1172.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 951.75(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 950.75(Month Low) to 1190.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in June than May in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, KWU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 950.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 873.51(Average Objective).

December Wheat(KCBT)
The KWZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1181.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 960.75(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 959.75(Month Low) to 1200.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in June than May in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, KWZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should penetrate 959.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 881.20(Average Objective).

September Oats(CBOT)
The OU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 641.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 515.50(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 492.75(Month Low) to 645.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, OU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OU should penetrate 492.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 431.71(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 136.150(Prev Close), the market ended June at 138.780(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 136.300(Month Low) to 143.400(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LCV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 143.400(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 150.066(Average Objective).

December Live Cattle(CME)
The LCZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 142.300(Prev Close), the market ended June at 144.885(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 142.485(Month Low) to 148.830(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LCZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 148.830(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 155.101(Average Objective).

October Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 170.700(Prev Close), the market ended June at 178.680(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 170.680(Month Low) to 180.135(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, FCV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCV should exceed 180.135(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 190.177(Average Objective).

November Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 172.735(Prev Close), the market ended June at 180.700(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 172.885(Month Low) to 181.580(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 181.580(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 191.170(Average Objective).

November Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 167.35(Prev Close), the market ended June at 170.35(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 159.75(Month Low) to 178.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Orange Juice(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JOX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOX should exceed 178.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 192.60(Average Objective).

September Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 164.30(Prev Close), the market ended June at 159.75(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 149.05(Month Low) to 168.65(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 33(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 33, KCU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 149.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 130.27(Average Objective).

December Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 230.80(Prev Close), the market ended June at 227.05(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 215.10(Month Low) to 240.60(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 33(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 33, KCZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should penetrate 215.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 190.82(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 122.45(Prev Close), the market ended June at 98.84(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 91.20(Month Low) to 126.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CTZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 91.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 82.27(Average Objective).

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