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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Oct 31, 2019
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Oct 26917.00 27204.00 25743.00 27046.00 89% 45 26 24 92% 27204.00 28701.25 27046.00
#TRAN Higher Oct 10364.00 10959.00 9708.00 10499.00 63% 45 31 28 90% 10959.00 11710.32 10499.00
#OEX Higher Oct 4.53 652.46 2.04 39.04 6% 43 26 23 88% 652.46 655.62 39.04
#NQ Higher Oct 7749.25 8119.50 7463.50 8083.75 95% 33 21 19 90% 8119.50 8885.36 8083.75
#QR Higher Oct 1523.35 1562.55 1462.20 1558.70 96% 40 22 19 86% Yes 1684.44 1558.70
#SP Higher Oct 2976.75 3050.10 2855.95 3037.55 94% 45 27 23 85% 3050.10 3233.79 3037.55
NQH0 Higher Oct 7792.25 8161.25 7493.25 8110.00 92% 23 15 14 93% 8161.25 8983.61 8110.00
YMH0 Higher Oct 26888 27205 25694 26970 84% 21 14 14 100% 27205 28737 26970
FVH0 Higher Oct 119~024 120~166 118~236 119~172 45% 31 17 15 88% 120~166 122~072 119~172
EUH0 Higher Oct 110.38 112.91 110.15 112.45 83% 20 9 8 89% 112.91 116.87 112.45
JYH0 Lower Oct 93.60 94.92 92.33 93.39 41% 43 25 22 88% 92.33 88.49 93.39
HOG0 Lower Oct 186.31 195.65 179.11 185.68 40% 40 23 20 87% 179.11 152.58 185.68
HOH0 Lower Oct 184.44 193.83 177.48 183.95 40% 40 20 18 90% 177.48 150.43 183.95
HOJ0 Lower Oct 182.34 191.40 175.59 181.91 40% 39 20 18 90% 175.59 150.28 181.91
SH0 Higher Oct 930.00 970.00 927.50 945.25 42% 45 25 21 84% 970.00 1028.27 945.25
CH0 Lower Oct 399.50 411.75 389.75 398.75 41% 45 23 21 91% 389.75 360.18 398.75
CK0 Lower Oct 405.25 416.50 396.00 404.75 43% 45 22 19 86% 396.00 368.67 404.75
HEJ0 Lower Oct 83.130 85.350 77.650 79.850 29% 45 20 17 85% 77.650 73.632 79.850
CCK0 Higher Oct 2451 2565 2416 2455 26% 45 16 15 94% 2565 2764 2455
LBH0 Higher Oct 377.5 412.0 367.1 403.5 81% 45 28 24 86% 412.0 447.1 403.5


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 26917.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 27046.00(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 25743.00(Month Low) to 27204.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 27204.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 28701.25(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 10364.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 10499.00(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 9708.00(Month Low) to 10959.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 10959.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 11710.32(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 4.53(Prev Close), the market ended October at 39.04(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 2.04(Month Low) to 652.46(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #OEX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 652.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 655.62(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NQ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 7749.25(Prev Close), the market ended October at 8083.75(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 7463.50(Month Low) to 8119.50(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #NQ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NQ should exceed 8119.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 8885.36(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #QR(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1523.35(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1558.70(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 1462.20(Month Low) to 1562.55(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in October than September in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #QR went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #QR should exceed 1562.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1684.44(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2976.75(Prev Close), the market ended October at 3037.55(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 2855.95(Month Low) to 3050.10(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 3050.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 3233.79(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME)
The NQH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 7792.25(Prev Close), the market ended October at 8110.00(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 7493.25(Month Low) to 8161.25(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NQH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NQH should exceed 8161.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 8983.61(Average Objective).

March E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT)
The YMH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 26888(Prev Close), the market ended October at 26970(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 25694(Month Low) to 27205(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, YMH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the YMH should exceed 27205(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 28737(Average Objective).

March 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The FVH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 119~024(Prev Close), the market ended October at 119~172(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 118~236(Month Low) to 120~166(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, FVH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FVH should exceed 120~166(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 122~072(Average Objective).

March EuroFX(CME)
The EUH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 110.38(Prev Close), the market ended October at 112.45(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 110.15(Month Low) to 112.91(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, EUH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUH should exceed 112.91(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 116.87(Average Objective).

March Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 93.60(Prev Close), the market ended October at 93.39(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 92.33(Month Low) to 94.92(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, JYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 92.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 88.49(Average Objective).

February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOG0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 186.31(Prev Close), the market ended October at 185.68(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 179.11(Month Low) to 195.65(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HOG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should penetrate 179.11(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 152.58(Average Objective).

March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 184.44(Prev Close), the market ended October at 183.95(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 177.48(Month Low) to 193.83(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 177.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 150.43(Average Objective).

April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOJ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 182.34(Prev Close), the market ended October at 181.91(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 175.59(Month Low) to 191.40(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 175.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 150.28(Average Objective).

March Soybeans(CBOT)
The SH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 930.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 945.25(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 927.50(Month Low) to 970.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should exceed 970.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1028.27(Average Objective).

March Corn(CBOT)
The CH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 399.50(Prev Close), the market ended October at 398.75(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 389.75(Month Low) to 411.75(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CH should penetrate 389.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 360.18(Average Objective).

May Corn(CBOT)
The CK0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 405.25(Prev Close), the market ended October at 404.75(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 396.00(Month Low) to 416.50(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CK went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should penetrate 396.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 368.67(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEJ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 83.130(Prev Close), the market ended October at 79.850(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 77.650(Month Low) to 85.350(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HEJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEJ should penetrate 77.650(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 73.632(Average Objective).

May Cocoa(ICE)
The CCK0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2451(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2455(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 2416(Month Low) to 2565(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CCK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2565(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2764(Average Objective).

March Lumber(CME)
The LBH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 377.5(Prev Close), the market ended October at 403.5(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 367.1(Month Low) to 412.0(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LBH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 412.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 447.1(Average Objective).
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