 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary |
|
| ScenarioSM Summary May 31, 2018 |
| Historical Data |
Scenario Data |
Current Market Data |
Mkt |
Cond |
Month |
Prev
Close |
Month
High |
Month
Low |
Month
Close |
Pct
Range |
Total
Years |
Cond
Years |
Action
Years |
Pct |
Scenario
Objective |
Average
Objective |
Last
Price |
| #DJ |
Higher |
May |
24163.00 |
25086.00 |
23531.00 |
24416.00 |
57% |
45 |
25 |
22 |
88% |
25086.00 |
26231.35 |
24416.00 |
| #OEX |
Higher |
May |
505.37 |
551.49 |
483.19 |
533.55 |
74% |
42 |
26 |
24 |
92% |
551.49 |
590.44 |
533.55 |
| #NDX |
Higher |
May |
51.95 |
462.80 |
24.65 |
414.15 |
89% |
32 |
22 |
21 |
95% |
462.80 |
492.36 |
414.15 |
| #RUT |
Higher |
May |
1541.90 |
1639.90 |
1527.70 |
1628.20 |
90% |
39 |
25 |
22 |
88% |
Yes |
1724.51 |
1628.20 |
| #MID |
Higher |
May |
1872.45 |
1974.00 |
1851.95 |
1946.45 |
77% |
37 |
24 |
22 |
92% |
1974.00 |
2060.48 |
1946.45 |
| SPU8 |
Higher |
May |
2651.50 |
2744.80 |
2598.70 |
2709.80 |
76% |
36 |
24 |
21 |
88% |
2744.80 |
2848.98 |
2709.80 |
| USU8 |
Higher |
May |
143~000 |
145~280 |
139~110 |
145~040 |
89% |
40 |
19 |
19 |
100% |
145~280 |
151~267 |
145~040 |
| TYU8 |
Higher |
May |
119~090 |
121~030 |
117~300 |
120~140 |
79% |
35 |
16 |
15 |
94% |
121~030 |
124~123 |
120~140 |
| EUU8 |
Lower |
May |
122.12 |
122.13 |
116.13 |
117.84 |
29% |
19 |
12 |
11 |
92% |
116.13 |
113.42 |
117.84 |
| JYU8 |
Higher |
May |
92.40 |
93.20 |
90.52 |
92.74 |
83% |
41 |
17 |
16 |
94% |
93.20 |
96.57 |
92.74 |
| ADU8 |
Higher |
May |
75.35 |
76.10 |
74.20 |
75.72 |
80% |
31 |
11 |
11 |
100% |
76.10 |
78.12 |
75.72 |
| DXU8 |
Higher |
May |
91.180 |
94.500 |
91.215 |
93.515 |
70% |
32 |
20 |
18 |
90% |
94.500 |
96.413 |
93.515 |
| ITCOZ8 |
Higher |
May |
72.04 |
78.72 |
70.10 |
76.15 |
70% |
26 |
11 |
10 |
91% |
78.72 |
85.19 |
76.15 |
| RBU8 |
Higher |
May |
209.13 |
224.70 |
202.89 |
214.00 |
51% |
33 |
18 |
16 |
89% |
224.70 |
240.11 |
214.00 |
| RBV8 |
Higher |
May |
196.04 |
211.50 |
189.99 |
201.71 |
54% |
33 |
18 |
16 |
89% |
211.50 |
226.07 |
201.71 |
| RBX8 |
Higher |
May |
191.99 |
207.56 |
186.19 |
198.60 |
58% |
32 |
15 |
13 |
87% |
207.56 |
221.32 |
198.60 |
| SQ8 |
Lower |
May |
1050.75 |
1058.00 |
996.00 |
1023.25 |
44% |
45 |
23 |
23 |
100% |
996.00 |
913.25 |
1023.25 |
| SU8 |
Lower |
May |
1047.25 |
1056.00 |
998.50 |
1027.25 |
50% |
45 |
22 |
22 |
100% |
998.50 |
924.85 |
1027.25 |
| SX8 |
Lower |
May |
1044.75 |
1060.50 |
1002.00 |
1034.25 |
55% |
45 |
24 |
22 |
92% |
1002.00 |
931.02 |
1034.25 |
| SMQ8 |
Lower |
May |
392.40 |
403.20 |
372.60 |
376.20 |
12% |
45 |
23 |
22 |
96% |
372.60 |
345.94 |
376.20 |
| SMU8 |
Lower |
May |
390.40 |
399.10 |
370.70 |
375.80 |
18% |
45 |
23 |
22 |
96% |
370.70 |
344.50 |
375.80 |
| CU8 |
Lower |
May |
407.50 |
420.75 |
400.00 |
403.25 |
16% |
45 |
23 |
21 |
91% |
400.00 |
359.06 |
403.25 |
| CZ8 |
Lower |
May |
416.00 |
429.50 |
410.50 |
413.75 |
17% |
45 |
23 |
21 |
91% |
410.50 |
371.53 |
413.75 |
| CH9 |
Lower |
May |
423.50 |
437.00 |
419.25 |
422.50 |
18% |
45 |
22 |
20 |
91% |
419.25 |
382.55 |
422.50 |
| RRU8 |
Lower |
May |
12.26 |
12.27 |
11.18 |
11.34 |
15% |
31 |
17 |
15 |
88% |
11.18 |
10.12 |
11.34 |
| HEV8 |
Lower |
May |
64.530 |
65.100 |
60.900 |
63.280 |
57% |
45 |
22 |
20 |
91% |
60.900 |
54.887 |
63.280 |
| HEZ8 |
Lower |
May |
59.430 |
59.830 |
56.780 |
58.430 |
54% |
45 |
22 |
19 |
86% |
56.780 |
50.651 |
58.430 |
| SBV8 |
Higher |
May |
11.99 |
13.08 |
11.51 |
13.02 |
96% |
45 |
19 |
17 |
89% |
13.08 |
15.25 |
13.02 |
| SBH9 |
Higher |
May |
13.04 |
13.84 |
12.52 |
13.80 |
97% |
45 |
19 |
17 |
89% |
13.84 |
15.80 |
13.80 |
| CCU8 |
Lower |
May |
2830 |
2921 |
2504 |
2507 |
1% |
45 |
26 |
22 |
85% |
2504 |
2335 |
2507 |
- DJIA Index
- The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 24163.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 24416.00(Month Close),
that being 57%(Pct Range) off of
23531.00(Month Low) to 25086.00(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed
higher in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 25, the #DJ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 25086.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 26231.35(Average Objective).
- S & P 100(OEX)
- The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 505.37(Prev Close), the market ended May at 533.55(Month Close),
that being 74%(Pct Range) off of
483.19(Month Low) to 551.49(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed
higher in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 26, the #OEX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 551.49(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move
toward 590.44(Average Objective).
- NASDAQ 100 Index
- The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 51.95(Prev Close), the market ended May at 414.15(Month Close),
that being 89%(Pct Range) off of
24.65(Month Low) to 462.80(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed
higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, the #NDX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 462.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 492.36(Average Objective).
- Russell 2000 Index
- The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 1541.90(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1628.20(Month Close),
that being 90%(Pct Range) off of
1527.70(Month Low) to 1639.90(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed
higher in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 25, the #RUT went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1639.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 1724.51(Average Objective).
- S & P Midcap 400 Index
- The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 1872.45(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1946.45(Month Close),
that being 77%(Pct Range) off of
1851.95(Month Low) to 1974.00(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed
higher in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 24, the #MID went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1974.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 2060.48(Average Objective).
- September S & P 500(CME)
- The SPU8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 2651.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2709.80(Month Close),
that being 76%(Pct Range) off of
2598.70(Month Low) to 2744.80(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed
higher in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 24, SPU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 2744.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 2848.98(Average Objective).
- September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
- The USU8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 143~000(Prev Close), the market ended May at 145~040(Month Close),
that being 89%(Pct Range) off of
139~110(Month Low) to 145~280(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed
higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, USU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 145~280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 151~267(Average Objective).
- September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
- The TYU8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 119~090(Prev Close), the market ended May at 120~140(Month Close),
that being 79%(Pct Range) off of
117~300(Month Low) to 121~030(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed
higher in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, TYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 121~030(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move
toward 124~123(Average Objective).
- September EuroFX(CME)
- The EUU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 122.12(Prev Close), the market ended May at 117.84(Month Close),
that being 29%(Pct Range) off of
116.13(Month Low) to 122.13(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September EuroFX(CME) also closed
lower in May than April in 12(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 12, EUU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUU should penetrate 116.13(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 113.42(Average Objective).
- September Japanese Yen(CME)
- The JYU8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 92.40(Prev Close), the market ended May at 92.74(Month Close),
that being 83%(Pct Range) off of
90.52(Month Low) to 93.20(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Japanese Yen(CME) also closed
higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, JYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYU should exceed 93.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 96.57(Average Objective).
- September Australian Dollar(CME)
- The ADU8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 75.35(Prev Close), the market ended May at 75.72(Month Close),
that being 80%(Pct Range) off of
74.20(Month Low) to 76.10(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed
higher in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 11, ADU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 76.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 78.12(Average Objective).
- September US Dollar Index(ICE)
- The DXU8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 91.180(Prev Close), the market ended May at 93.515(Month Close),
that being 70%(Pct Range) off of
91.215(Month Low) to 94.500(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed
higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, DXU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 94.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 96.413(Average Objective).
- December Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
- The ITCOZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 72.04(Prev Close), the market ended May at 76.15(Month Close),
that being 70%(Pct Range) off of
70.10(Month Low) to 78.72(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed
higher in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 11, ITCOZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOZ should exceed 78.72(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move
toward 85.19(Average Objective).
- September RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
- The RBU8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 209.13(Prev Close), the market ended May at 214.00(Month Close),
that being 51%(Pct Range) off of
202.89(Month Low) to 224.70(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed
higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, RBU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 224.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 240.11(Average Objective).
- October RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
- The RBV8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 196.04(Prev Close), the market ended May at 201.71(Month Close),
that being 54%(Pct Range) off of
189.99(Month Low) to 211.50(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed
higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, RBV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBV should exceed 211.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 226.07(Average Objective).
- November RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
- The RBX8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 191.99(Prev Close), the market ended May at 198.60(Month Close),
that being 58%(Pct Range) off of
186.19(Month Low) to 207.56(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed
higher in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 15, RBX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBX should exceed 207.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move
toward 221.32(Average Objective).
- August Soybeans(CBOT)
- The SQ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 1050.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1023.25(Month Close),
that being 44%(Pct Range) off of
996.00(Month Low) to 1058.00(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed
lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, SQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should penetrate 996.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move
toward 913.25(Average Objective).
- September Soybeans(CBOT)
- The SU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 1047.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1027.25(Month Close),
that being 50%(Pct Range) off of
998.50(Month Low) to 1056.00(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed
lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, SU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should penetrate 998.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 924.85(Average Objective).
- November Soybeans(CBOT)
- The SX8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 1044.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1034.25(Month Close),
that being 55%(Pct Range) off of
1002.00(Month Low) to 1060.50(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed
lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 24, SX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should penetrate 1002.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 931.02(Average Objective).
- August Soybean Meal(CBOT)
- The SMQ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 392.40(Prev Close), the market ended May at 376.20(Month Close),
that being 12%(Pct Range) off of
372.60(Month Low) to 403.20(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed
lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, SMQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should penetrate 372.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 345.94(Average Objective).
- September Soybean Meal(CBOT)
- The SMU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 390.40(Prev Close), the market ended May at 375.80(Month Close),
that being 18%(Pct Range) off of
370.70(Month Low) to 399.10(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed
lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, SMU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 370.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 344.50(Average Objective).
- September Corn(CBOT)
- The CU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 407.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 403.25(Month Close),
that being 16%(Pct Range) off of
400.00(Month Low) to 420.75(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed
lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, CU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 400.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 359.06(Average Objective).
- December Corn(CBOT)
- The CZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 416.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 413.75(Month Close),
that being 17%(Pct Range) off of
410.50(Month Low) to 429.50(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed
lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, CZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 410.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 371.53(Average Objective).
- March Corn(CBOT)
- The CH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 423.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 422.50(Month Close),
that being 18%(Pct Range) off of
419.25(Month Low) to 437.00(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Corn(CBOT) also closed
lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, CH went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CH should penetrate 419.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move
toward 382.55(Average Objective).
- September Rough Rice(CBOT)
- The RRU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 12.26(Prev Close), the market ended May at 11.34(Month Close),
that being 15%(Pct Range) off of
11.18(Month Low) to 12.27(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed
lower in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, RRU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 11.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move
toward 10.12(Average Objective).
- October Lean Hogs(CME)
- The HEV8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 64.530(Prev Close), the market ended May at 63.280(Month Close),
that being 57%(Pct Range) off of
60.900(Month Low) to 65.100(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed
lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, HEV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEV should penetrate 60.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move
toward 54.887(Average Objective).
- December Lean Hogs(CME)
- The HEZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 59.430(Prev Close), the market ended May at 58.430(Month Close),
that being 54%(Pct Range) off of
56.780(Month Low) to 59.830(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed
lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, HEZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEZ should penetrate 56.780(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 50.651(Average Objective).
- October Sugar #11(ICE)
- The SBV8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 11.99(Prev Close), the market ended May at 13.02(Month Close),
that being 96%(Pct Range) off of
11.51(Month Low) to 13.08(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed
higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, SBV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 13.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 15.25(Average Objective).
- March Sugar #11(ICE)
- The SBH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 13.04(Prev Close), the market ended May at 13.80(Month Close),
that being 97%(Pct Range) off of
12.52(Month Low) to 13.84(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed
higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, SBH went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 13.84(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 15.80(Average Objective).
- September Cocoa(ICE)
- The CCU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
May(Month). Compared to April's 2830(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2507(Month Close),
that being 1%(Pct Range) off of
2504(Month Low) to 2921(Month High).
In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Cocoa(ICE) also closed
lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 26, CCU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCU should penetrate 2504(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 2335(Average Objective).
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