MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Sep 30, 2011

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#SSNI

Lower

Sep

8955

9098

8360

8700

46%

84%

8360

7556

8700

USZ1

Higher

Sep

136~01

147~00

135~01

142~20

63%

89%

147~00

152~09

142~20

TYZ1

Higher

Sep

129~010

131~300

128~185

130~030

45%

96%

131~300

135~069

130~030

JYZ1

Lower

Sep

130.73

131.56

128.60

129.87

43%

93%

128.60

124.11

129.87

CDZ1

Lower

Sep

101.89

102.46

95.04

95.61

100%

95.04

93.57

95.61

DXZ1

Higher

Sep

74.493

79.645

74.550

79.075

89%

100%

79.645

82.437

79.075

BOZ1

Lower

Sep

59.07

59.14

50.05

50.21

89%

50.05

46.35

50.21

SMZ1

Lower

Sep

387.80

387.70

306.50

308.60

88%

306.50

288.66

308.60

OZ1

Lower

Sep

372.50

379.00

321.00

328.00

12%

93%

321.00

295.50

328.00

LCZ1

Higher

Sep

115.900

122.900

115.300

122.650

97%

88%

122.900

128.852

122.650

LEZ1

Higher

Sep

82.900

88.000

80.500

87.800

97%

88%

88.000

95.214

87.800

Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 8955(Prev Close), the market ended September at 8700(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 8360(Month Low) to 9098(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed lower in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #SSNI went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should penetrate 8360(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 7556(Average Objective).
December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 136~01(Prev Close), the market ended September at 142~20(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 135~01(Month Low) to 147~00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, USZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 147~00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 152~09(Average Objective).
December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 129~010(Prev Close), the market ended September at 130~030(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 128~185(Month Low) to 131~300(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, TYZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 131~300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 135~069(Average Objective).
December Japanese Yen(CME): The JYZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 130.73(Prev Close), the market ended September at 129.87(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 128.60(Month Low) to 131.56(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, JYZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should penetrate 128.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 124.11(Average Objective).
December Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 101.89(Prev Close), the market ended September at 95.61(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 95.04(Month Low) to 102.46(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, CDZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDZ should penetrate 95.04(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 93.57(Average Objective).
December US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 74.493(Prev Close), the market ended September at 79.075(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 74.550(Month Low) to 79.645(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, DXZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should exceed 79.645(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 82.437(Average Objective).
December Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 59.07(Prev Close), the market ended September at 50.21(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 50.05(Month Low) to 59.14(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, BOZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should penetrate 50.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 46.35(Average Objective).
December Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 387.80(Prev Close), the market ended September at 308.60(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 306.50(Month Low) to 387.70(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SMZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 306.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 288.66(Average Objective).
December Oats(CBOT): The OZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 372.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 328.00(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 321.00(Month Low) to 379.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, OZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OZ should penetrate 321.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 295.50(Average Objective).
December Live Cattle(CME): The LCZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 115.900(Prev Close), the market ended September at 122.650(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 115.300(Month Low) to 122.900(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LCZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 122.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 128.852(Average Objective).
December Lean Hogs(CME): The LEZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 82.900(Prev Close), the market ended September at 87.800(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 80.500(Month Low) to 88.000(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LEZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should exceed 88.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 95.214(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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