MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Jun 30, 2011

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#OEX

Lower

Jun

597.32

597.28

561.57

587.31

72%

100%

561.57

587.31

NDU1

Lower

Jun

2368.00

2327.00

2174.80

2321.00

96%

86%

2174.80

2058.87

2321.00

SFU1

Higher

Jun

117.28

120.91

117.01

119.07

53%

89%

120.91

127.42

119.07

ADU1

Higher

Jun

105.13

106.46

102.81

106.26

95%

85%

106.46

110.13

106.26

DXU1

Lower

Jun

75.165

76.590

73.880

74.635

28%

92%

73.880

71.226

74.635

HGU1

Higher

Jun

419.65

428.75

402.40

428.25

98%

91%

428.75

468.72

428.25

HGZ1

Higher

Jun

421.45

430.00

405.00

429.75

99%

95%

430.00

470.23

429.75

SU1

Lower

Jun

1367.25

1406.50

1284.50

1295.50

96%

1284.50

1170.10

1295.50

SX1

Lower

Jun

1363.50

1405.25

1286.00

1294.00

96%

1286.00

1175.43

1294.00

BOU1

Lower

Jun

59.04

59.98

54.75

55.45

13%

92%

54.75

49.38

55.45

BOV1

Lower

Jun

59.27

60.10

55.00

55.69

14%

92%

55.00

49.66

55.69

BOZ1

Lower

Jun

59.72

60.70

55.48

56.15

13%

92%

55.48

50.16

56.15

SMU1

Lower

Jun

354.90

370.00

330.20

333.50

89%

330.20

300.78

333.50

SMV1

Lower

Jun

349.90

366.30

329.50

330.50

91%

329.50

299.11

330.50

SMZ1

Lower

Jun

351.20

368.30

329.10

330.90

87%

329.10

299.74

330.90

KWU1

Lower

Jun

927.50

942.25

704.00

707.25

86%

704.00

647.63

707.25

MWU1

Lower

Jun

987.75

1006.75

789.50

795.00

84%

789.50

719.63

795.00

LCV1

Higher

Jun

111.085

119.800

108.100

117.200

78%

95%

119.800

127.177

117.200

LCZ1

Higher

Jun

115.180

122.800

112.180

120.000

74%

91%

122.800

129.767

120.000

FCU1

Higher

Jun

125.980

140.000

123.000

138.930

94%

91%

140.000

147.634

138.930

FCV1

Higher

Jun

126.950

140.000

124.000

139.235

95%

140.000

148.088

139.235

FCX1

Higher

Jun

127.850

140.050

125.300

139.075

93%

96%

140.050

147.745

139.075

KCU1

Lower

Jun

267.75

276.75

241.45

265.60

68%

90%

241.45

209.70

265.60

KCZ1

Lower

Jun

271.95

281.60

245.80

269.00

65%

90%

245.80

216.14

269.00

SBV1

Higher

Jun

22.99

27.30

22.21

26.34

81%

86%

27.30

30.83

26.34

CCZ1

Higher

Jun

3040

3183

2900

3171

96%

86%

3183

3549

3171

LBU1

Lower

Jun

269.0

273.0

227.6

259.0

69%

84%

227.6

199.4

259.0

CTV1

Lower

Jun

146.94

151.04

122.24

123.69

85%

122.24

110.58

123.69

CTZ1

Lower

Jun

135.50

140.90

116.40

118.59

85%

116.40

107.49

118.59

S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 597.32(Prev Close), the market ended June at 587.31(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 561.57(Month Low) to 597.28(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 1 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed lower in June than May in 1(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 1, the #OEX went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 1 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should penetrate 561.57(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
September NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 2368.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 2321.00(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 2174.80(Month Low) to 2327.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed lower in June than May in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NDU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDU should penetrate 2174.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 2058.87(Average Objective).
September Swiss Franc(CME): The SFU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 117.28(Prev Close), the market ended June at 119.07(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 117.01(Month Low) to 120.91(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SFU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFU should exceed 120.91(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 127.42(Average Objective).
September Australian Dollar(CME): The ADU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 105.13(Prev Close), the market ended June at 106.26(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 102.81(Month Low) to 106.46(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ADU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 106.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 110.13(Average Objective).
September US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 75.165(Prev Close), the market ended June at 74.635(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 73.880(Month Low) to 76.590(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, DXU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should penetrate 73.880(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 71.226(Average Objective).
September Copper(CMX): The HGU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 419.65(Prev Close), the market ended June at 428.25(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 402.40(Month Low) to 428.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Copper(CMX) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HGU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGU should exceed 428.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 468.72(Average Objective).
December Copper(CMX): The HGZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 421.45(Prev Close), the market ended June at 429.75(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 405.00(Month Low) to 430.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Copper(CMX) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HGZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGZ should exceed 430.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 470.23(Average Objective).
September Soybeans(CBOT): The SU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1367.25(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1295.50(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 1284.50(Month Low) to 1406.50(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should penetrate 1284.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1170.10(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1363.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1294.00(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 1286.00(Month Low) to 1405.25(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SX went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should penetrate 1286.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1175.43(Average Objective).
September Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 59.04(Prev Close), the market ended June at 55.45(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 54.75(Month Low) to 59.98(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 54.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 49.38(Average Objective).
October Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOV1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 59.27(Prev Close), the market ended June at 55.69(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 55.00(Month Low) to 60.10(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, BOV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOV should penetrate 55.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 49.66(Average Objective).
December Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 59.72(Prev Close), the market ended June at 56.15(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 55.48(Month Low) to 60.70(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, BOZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should penetrate 55.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 50.16(Average Objective).
September Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 354.90(Prev Close), the market ended June at 333.50(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 330.20(Month Low) to 370.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SMU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 330.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 300.78(Average Objective).
October Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMV1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 349.90(Prev Close), the market ended June at 330.50(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 329.50(Month Low) to 366.30(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMV should penetrate 329.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 299.11(Average Objective).
December Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 351.20(Prev Close), the market ended June at 330.90(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 329.10(Month Low) to 368.30(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SMZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 329.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 299.74(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 927.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 707.25(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 704.00(Month Low) to 942.25(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KWU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 704.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 647.63(Average Objective).
September Wheat(MGE): The MWU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 987.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 795.00(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 789.50(Month Low) to 1006.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, MWU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWU should penetrate 789.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 719.63(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 111.085(Prev Close), the market ended June at 117.200(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 108.100(Month Low) to 119.800(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 119.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 127.177(Average Objective).
December Live Cattle(CME): The LCZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 115.180(Prev Close), the market ended June at 120.000(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 112.180(Month Low) to 122.800(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LCZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 122.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 129.767(Average Objective).
September Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 125.980(Prev Close), the market ended June at 138.930(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 123.000(Month Low) to 140.000(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, FCU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCU should exceed 140.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 147.634(Average Objective).
October Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 126.950(Prev Close), the market ended June at 139.235(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 124.000(Month Low) to 140.000(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, FCV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCV should exceed 140.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 148.088(Average Objective).
November Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 127.850(Prev Close), the market ended June at 139.075(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 125.300(Month Low) to 140.050(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, FCX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 140.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 147.745(Average Objective).
September Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 267.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 265.60(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 241.45(Month Low) to 276.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, KCU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 241.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 209.70(Average Objective).
December Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 271.95(Prev Close), the market ended June at 269.00(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 245.80(Month Low) to 281.60(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, KCZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should penetrate 245.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 216.14(Average Objective).
October Sugar #11(ICE): The SBV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 22.99(Prev Close), the market ended June at 26.34(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 22.21(Month Low) to 27.30(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SBV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 27.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 30.83(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(ICE): The CCZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 3040(Prev Close), the market ended June at 3171(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 2900(Month Low) to 3183(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CCZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should exceed 3183(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 3549(Average Objective).
September Lumber(CME): The LBU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 269.0(Prev Close), the market ended June at 259.0(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 227.6(Month Low) to 273.0(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed lower in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LBU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 227.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 199.4(Average Objective).
October Cotton(ICE): The CTV1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 146.94(Prev Close), the market ended June at 123.69(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 122.24(Month Low) to 151.04(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CTV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 122.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 110.58(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 135.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 118.59(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 116.40(Month Low) to 140.90(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CTZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 116.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 107.49(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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