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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Apr 30, 2011
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Apr 12320.00 12833.00 12094.00 12811.00 97% 45 28 24 86% 12833.00 13403.40 12811.00
#NDX Higher Apr 2339.00 2415.90 2254.90 2404.10 93% 25 14 12 86% 2415.90 2627.12 2404.10
#MID Higher Apr 989.05 1016.50 958.55 1015.25 98% 30 20 17 85% 1016.50 1080.99 1015.25
#VLE Higher Apr 3056.70 3131.50 2977.80 3129.80 99% 28 17 15 88% Yes 3326.39 3129.80
#SSNI Higher Apr 9755 9850 9405 9850 100% 29 18 17 94% Yes 10328 9850
SPU1 Higher Apr 1315.80 1358.60 1285.30 1354.40 94% 28 18 17 94% 1358.60 1420.80 1354.40
NDU1 Higher Apr 2333.50 2407.00 2255.00 2397.00 93% 14 9 8 89% 2407.00 2608.99 2397.00
USU1 Higher Apr 118~230 120~290 116~110 120~290 100% 33 14 13 93% 120~290 128~010 120~290
TYU1 Higher Apr 117~180 119~220 116~015 119~220 100% 28 12 11 92% 119~220 124~051 119~220
CDU1 Higher Apr 102.80 105.35 102.50 105.35 100% 34 21 18 86% 105.35 107.62 105.35
ADU1 Higher Apr 101.49 107.78 101.02 107.78 100% 24 17 15 88% 107.78 112.20 107.78
SIN1 Higher Apr 3791.3 4984.5 3715.0 4859.9 90% 45 16 14 88% 4984.5 5416.7 4859.9
CLQ1 Higher Apr 107.99 114.78 106.75 114.71 99% 28 17 15 88% 114.78 125.04 114.71
CLU1 Higher Apr 108.18 114.95 106.91 114.83 99% 28 18 16 89% 114.95 124.07 114.83
RBU1 Higher Apr 302.29 327.25 300.69 326.62 98% 26 20 17 85% 327.25 356.34 326.62
NGQ1 Higher Apr 4.566 4.802 4.193 4.802 100% 20 11 10 91% 4.802 5.487 4.802
NGU1 Higher Apr 4.571 4.809 4.208 4.809 100% 20 12 11 92% 4.809 5.516 4.809
BON1 Lower Apr 59.38 61.00 56.55 58.58 46% 45 17 15 88% 56.55 51.89 58.58
BOQ1 Lower Apr 59.56 61.14 56.80 58.83 47% 45 17 15 88% 56.80 52.24 58.83
SMU1 Lower Apr 374.10 375.50 345.50 362.90 58% 45 21 18 86% 345.50 325.55 362.90
CN1 Higher Apr 701.00 788.75 729.25 756.50 46% 45 16 14 88% 788.75 861.73 756.50
CU1 Higher Apr 655.25 728.75 665.00 716.00 80% 45 17 15 88% 728.75 804.66 716.00
CZ1 Higher Apr 625.25 684.00 626.50 669.50 75% 45 20 18 90% 684.00 763.54 669.50
KWN1 Lower Apr 918.50 976.75 865.00 902.00 33% 34 16 15 94% 865.00 817.41 902.00
ON1 Lower Apr 376.00 413.50 350.00 352.50 4% 36 16 14 88% 350.00 315.53 352.50
OU1 Lower Apr 383.25 416.00 355.50 360.00 7% 36 14 12 86% 355.50 321.57 360.00
LEN1 Lower Apr 103.750 104.050 95.700 96.400 8% 41 12 12 100% 95.700 88.294 96.400
LEQ1 Lower Apr 103.150 104.450 96.250 97.225 12% 41 11 11 100% 96.250 88.334 97.225
SBN1 Lower Apr 25.04 25.95 21.75 22.25 12% 45 26 22 85% 21.75 18.47 22.25


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 12320.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 12811.00(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 12094.00(Month Low) to 12833.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12833.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 13403.40(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2339.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2404.10(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 2254.90(Month Low) to 2415.90(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #NDX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2415.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2627.12(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 989.05(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1015.25(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 958.55(Month Low) to 1016.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #MID went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1016.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1080.99(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 3056.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 3129.80(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 2977.80(Month Low) to 3131.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #VLE went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3131.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3326.39(Average Objective).

Nikkei 225 Index
The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 9755(Prev Close), the market ended April at 9850(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 9405(Month Low) to 9850(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #SSNI went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 9850(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 10328(Average Objective).

September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1315.80(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1354.40(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 1285.30(Month Low) to 1358.60(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SPU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 1358.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1420.80(Average Objective).

September NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2333.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2397.00(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 2255.00(Month Low) to 2407.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NDU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDU should exceed 2407.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 2608.99(Average Objective).

September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 118~230(Prev Close), the market ended April at 120~290(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 116~110(Month Low) to 120~290(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, USU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 120~290(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 128~010(Average Objective).

September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 117~180(Prev Close), the market ended April at 119~220(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 116~015(Month Low) to 119~220(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, TYU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 119~220(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 124~051(Average Objective).

September Canadian Dollar(CME)
The CDU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 102.80(Prev Close), the market ended April at 105.35(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 102.50(Month Low) to 105.35(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CDU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDU should exceed 105.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 107.62(Average Objective).

September Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 101.49(Prev Close), the market ended April at 107.78(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 101.02(Month Low) to 107.78(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ADU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 107.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 112.20(Average Objective).

July Silver(CMX)
The SIN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 3791.3(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4859.9(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 3715.0(Month Low) to 4984.5(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Silver(CMX) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, SIN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIN should exceed 4984.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 5416.7(Average Objective).

August Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLQ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 107.99(Prev Close), the market ended April at 114.71(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 106.75(Month Low) to 114.78(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CLQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 114.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 125.04(Average Objective).

September Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 108.18(Prev Close), the market ended April at 114.83(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 106.91(Month Low) to 114.95(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CLU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLU should exceed 114.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 124.07(Average Objective).

September Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 302.29(Prev Close), the market ended April at 326.62(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 300.69(Month Low) to 327.25(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, RBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 327.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 356.34(Average Objective).

August Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGQ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4.566(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4.802(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 4.193(Month Low) to 4.802(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 4.802(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 5.487(Average Objective).

September Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4.571(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4.809(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 4.208(Month Low) to 4.809(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 4.809(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 5.516(Average Objective).

July Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BON1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 59.38(Prev Close), the market ended April at 58.58(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 56.55(Month Low) to 61.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, BON went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should penetrate 56.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 51.89(Average Objective).

August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOQ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 59.56(Prev Close), the market ended April at 58.83(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 56.80(Month Low) to 61.14(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, BOQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 56.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 52.24(Average Objective).

September Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 374.10(Prev Close), the market ended April at 362.90(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 345.50(Month Low) to 375.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 345.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 325.55(Average Objective).

July Corn(CBOT)
The CN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 701.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 756.50(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 729.25(Month Low) to 788.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should exceed 788.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 861.73(Average Objective).

September Corn(CBOT)
The CU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 655.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 716.00(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 665.00(Month Low) to 728.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should exceed 728.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 804.66(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 625.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 669.50(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 626.50(Month Low) to 684.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 684.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 763.54(Average Objective).

July Wheat(KCBT)
The KWN1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 918.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 902.00(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 865.00(Month Low) to 976.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, KWN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 865.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 817.41(Average Objective).

July Oats(CBOT)
The ON1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 376.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 352.50(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 350.00(Month Low) to 413.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ON went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should penetrate 350.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 315.53(Average Objective).

September Oats(CBOT)
The OU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 383.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 360.00(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 355.50(Month Low) to 416.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, OU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OU should penetrate 355.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 321.57(Average Objective).

July Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEN1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 103.750(Prev Close), the market ended April at 96.400(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 95.700(Month Low) to 104.050(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, LEN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEN should penetrate 95.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 88.294(Average Objective).

August Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEQ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 103.150(Prev Close), the market ended April at 97.225(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 96.250(Month Low) to 104.450(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, LEQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEQ should penetrate 96.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 88.334(Average Objective).

July Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBN1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 25.04(Prev Close), the market ended April at 22.25(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 21.75(Month Low) to 25.95(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SBN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should penetrate 21.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 18.47(Average Objective).
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