MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Feb 28, 2011

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Feb

11892.00

12391.00

11893.00

12226.00

67%

96%

12391.00

13100.46

12226.00

#TRAN

Higher

Feb

5025.10

5306.70

4917.70

5084.90

43%

88%

5306.70

5681.98

5084.90

#UTIL

Higher

Feb

409.35

417.12

406.78

415.61

85%

92%

417.12

434.69

415.61

#NDX

Higher

Feb

2281.90

2403.50

2284.60

2351.00

56%

92%

2403.50

2627.65

2351.00

#MID

Higher

Feb

924.75

983.85

924.75

966.60

71%

95%

983.85

1042.43

966.60

#VLE

Higher

Feb

2892.30

3072.90

2905.70

3012.90

64%

88%

3072.90

3238.10

3012.90

NDM1

Higher

Feb

2277.30

2398.00

2286.00

2348.30

56%

100%

2398.00

2651.47

2348.30

TYM1

Lower

Feb

119~175

116~035

119~015

85%

92%

116~035

113~154

119~015

EDM1

Higher

Feb

99.575

99.640

99.550

99.635

94%

85%

99.640

99.898

99.635

CDM1

Higher

Feb

99.58

102.73

99.58

102.72

100%

87%

102.73

105.39

102.72

ADM1

Higher

Feb

98.09

100.59

98.00

100.58

100%

88%

100.59

104.74

100.58

HGK1

Higher

Feb

446.55

465.75

424.35

449.65

61%

88%

465.75

517.54

449.65

HGN1

Higher

Feb

446.40

465.35

425.50

450.65

63%

96%

465.35

513.68

450.65

CLM1

Higher

Feb

96.78

105.55

91.97

99.44

55%

88%

105.55

117.60

99.44

CLN1

Higher

Feb

97.53

105.33

93.10

100.11

57%

94%

105.33

116.25

100.11

HOM1

Higher

Feb

273.27

309.28

268.45

296.96

70%

93%

309.28

345.57

296.96

HON1

Higher

Feb

274.27

304.42

271.42

298.74

83%

93%

304.42

338.90

298.74

RBM1

Higher

Feb

265.10

301.20

258.16

291.14

77%

100%

301.20

349.73

291.14

RBN1

Higher

Feb

264.50

297.33

260.00

290.67

82%

100%

297.33

342.66

290.67

WU1

Lower

Feb

907.25

971.50

817.00

879.25

40%

88%

817.00

772.92

879.25

KWK1

Lower

Feb

935.75

1001.50

851.00

912.50

41%

90%

851.00

804.45

912.50

KWN1

Lower

Feb

943.50

1009.75

861.00

922.50

41%

85%

861.00

817.18

922.50

LEN1

Higher

Feb

98.335

102.700

97.385

99.850

46%

89%

102.700

111.287

99.850

JON1

Higher

Feb

167.05

177.25

161.00

170.85

61%

89%

177.25

191.35

170.85

CTK1

Higher

Feb

163.18

208.93

161.75

191.23

62%

92%

208.93

225.89

191.23

CTN1

Higher

Feb

155.15

200.56

154.59

182.59

61%

88%

200.56

213.26

182.59

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 11892.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 12226.00(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 11893.00(Month Low) to 12391.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in February than January in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #DJ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12391.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 13100.46(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 5025.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at 5084.90(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 4917.70(Month Low) to 5306.70(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #TRAN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 5306.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 5681.98(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 409.35(Prev Close), the market ended February at 415.61(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 406.78(Month Low) to 417.12(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #UTIL went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 417.12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 434.69(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 2281.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 2351.00(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 2284.60(Month Low) to 2403.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in February than January in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, the #NDX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2403.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2627.65(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 924.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 966.60(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 924.75(Month Low) to 983.85(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #MID went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 983.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1042.43(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 2892.30(Prev Close), the market ended February at 3012.90(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 2905.70(Month Low) to 3072.90(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #VLE went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3072.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3238.10(Average Objective).
June NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 2277.30(Prev Close), the market ended February at 2348.30(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 2286.00(Month Low) to 2398.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 4(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 4, NDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDM should exceed 2398.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move toward 2651.47(Average Objective).
June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYM1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 119~175(Prev Close), the market ended February at 119~015(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 116~035(Month Low) to 119~175(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, TYM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should penetrate 116~035(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 113~154(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.575(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.635(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 99.550(Month Low) to 99.640(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 99.640(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 99.898(Average Objective).
June Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.58(Prev Close), the market ended February at 102.72(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 99.58(Month Low) to 102.73(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDM should exceed 102.73(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 105.39(Average Objective).
June Australian Dollar(CME): The ADM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 98.09(Prev Close), the market ended February at 100.58(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 98.00(Month Low) to 100.59(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ADM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADM should exceed 100.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 104.74(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 446.55(Prev Close), the market ended February at 449.65(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 424.35(Month Low) to 465.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HGK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 465.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 517.54(Average Objective).
July Copper(CMX): The HGN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 446.40(Prev Close), the market ended February at 450.65(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 425.50(Month Low) to 465.35(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Copper(CMX) also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGN should exceed 465.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 513.68(Average Objective).
June Crude Oil(NYM): The CLM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 96.78(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.44(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 91.97(Month Low) to 105.55(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 105.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 117.60(Average Objective).
July Crude Oil(NYM): The CLN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 97.53(Prev Close), the market ended February at 100.11(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 93.10(Month Low) to 105.33(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 105.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 116.25(Average Objective).
June Heating Oil(NYM): The HOM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 273.27(Prev Close), the market ended February at 296.96(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 268.45(Month Low) to 309.28(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HOM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOM should exceed 309.28(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 345.57(Average Objective).
July Heating Oil(NYM): The HON1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 274.27(Prev Close), the market ended February at 298.74(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 271.42(Month Low) to 304.42(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HON should exceed 304.42(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 338.90(Average Objective).
June Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 265.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at 291.14(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 258.16(Month Low) to 301.20(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in February than January in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, RBM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBM should exceed 301.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 349.73(Average Objective).
July Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 264.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 290.67(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 260.00(Month Low) to 297.33(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in February than January in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, RBN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBN should exceed 297.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 342.66(Average Objective).
September Wheat(CBOT): The WU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 907.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 879.25(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 817.00(Month Low) to 971.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 817.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 772.92(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 935.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 912.50(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 851.00(Month Low) to 1001.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 851.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 804.45(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 943.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 922.50(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 861.00(Month Low) to 1009.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 861.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 817.18(Average Objective).
July Lean Hogs(CME): The LEN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 98.335(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.850(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 97.385(Month Low) to 102.700(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LEN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEN should exceed 102.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 111.287(Average Objective).
July Orange Juice(ICE): The JON1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 167.05(Prev Close), the market ended February at 170.85(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 161.00(Month Low) to 177.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Orange Juice(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, JON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JON should exceed 177.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 191.35(Average Objective).
May Cotton(ICE): The CTK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 163.18(Prev Close), the market ended February at 191.23(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 161.75(Month Low) to 208.93(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTK should exceed 208.93(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 225.89(Average Objective).
July Cotton(ICE): The CTN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 155.15(Prev Close), the market ended February at 182.59(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 154.59(Month Low) to 200.56(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should exceed 200.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 213.26(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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