MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Jan 31, 2011

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Jan

11578.00

12021.00

11574.00

11892.00

71%

89%

12021.00

12664.98

11892.00

#MID

Higher

Jan

907.25

939.55

900.85

924.75

62%

94%

939.55

986.43

924.75

#VLE

Higher

Jan

2865.40

2954.20

2853.90

2873.60

20%

94%

Yes

3110.64

2873.60

#SSNI

Higher

Jan

10229

10621

10258

10360

28%

88%

Yes

11313

10360

#SP

Higher

Jan

1257.65

1302.65

1257.60

1286.10

63%

92%

1302.65

1370.17

1286.10

SPH1

Higher

Jan

1253.00

1299.40

1255.80

1282.40

61%

89%

1299.40

1357.64

1282.40

SPM1

Higher

Jan

1247.90

1292.90

1253.50

1277.50

61%

89%

1292.90

1361.73

1277.50

SFH1

Lower

Jan

107.14

107.38

102.25

106.04

74%

88%

102.25

98.61

106.04

SFM1

Lower

Jan

107.28

107.42

102.50

106.14

74%

88%

102.50

98.10

106.14

JYH1

Lower

Jan

123.28

123.45

119.52

121.96

62%

86%

119.52

116.08

121.96

JYM1

Lower

Jan

123.42

119.83

122.07

62%

86%

119.83

115.25

122.07

PLJ1

Higher

Jan

1778.2

1851.1

1710.6

1800.9

64%

92%

1851.1

2033.8

1800.9

PAM1

Higher

Jan

804.40

828.35

749.00

821.80

92%

85%

828.35

968.87

821.80

HGK1

Higher

Jan

443.95

449.00

421.85

446.55

91%

92%

449.00

508.64

446.55

HGN1

Higher

Jan

442.30

446.40

422.80

446.40

100%

92%

446.40

503.26

446.40

CLK1

Higher

Jan

93.41

95.82

89.40

95.82

100%

93%

95.82

107.13

95.82

CLM1

Higher

Jan

93.78

96.78

90.50

96.78

100%

93%

96.78

107.19

96.78

RBK1

Higher

Jan

252.89

264.96

248.49

264.96

100%

94%

264.96

294.77

264.96

RBM1

Higher

Jan

252.72

265.10

248.16

265.10

100%

88%

265.10

297.16

265.10

NGK1

Higher

Jan

4.434

4.822

4.321

4.470

30%

100%

4.822

5.575

4.470

NGM1

Higher

Jan

4.475

4.850

4.363

4.513

31%

100%

4.850

5.568

4.513

SX1

Higher

Jan

1308.50

1364.00

1268.75

1341.00

76%

88%

1364.00

1450.19

1341.00

WN1

Higher

Jan

832.00

909.00

807.00

889.50

81%

84%

909.00

981.09

889.50

MWN1

Higher

Jan

890.25

997.50

875.75

974.25

81%

86%

Yes

1057.94

974.25

OK1

Higher

Jan

398.50

412.25

375.00

404.25

79%

85%

412.25

450.65

404.25

FCK1

Higher

Jan

125.230

130.600

123.000

129.575

87%

84%

130.600

137.604

129.575

FCQ1

Higher

Jan

125.800

130.500

123.850

129.985

92%

84%

130.500

136.079

129.985

CCK1

Higher

Jan

3052

3390

2842

3354

93%

100%

3390

3717

3354

CCN1

Higher

Jan

3064

3374

2862

3341

94%

93%

3374

3686

3341

LBN1

Lower

Jan

332.1

352.1

317.5

332.0

42%

93%

317.5

296.4

332.0

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 11578.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 11892.00(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 11574.00(Month Low) to 12021.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in January than December in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12021.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 12664.98(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 907.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 924.75(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 900.85(Month Low) to 939.55(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #MID went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 939.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 986.43(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2865.40(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2873.60(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 2853.90(Month Low) to 2954.20(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #VLE went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2954.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3110.64(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 10229(Prev Close), the market ended January at 10360(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 10258(Month Low) to 10621(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #SSNI went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 10621(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 11313(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1257.65(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1286.10(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 1257.60(Month Low) to 1302.65(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1302.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 1370.17(Average Objective).
March S & P 500(CME): The SPH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1253.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1282.40(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 1255.80(Month Low) to 1299.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SPH went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 1299.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1357.64(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1247.90(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1277.50(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 1253.50(Month Low) to 1292.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SPM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 1292.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1361.73(Average Objective).
March Swiss Franc(CME): The SFH1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 107.14(Prev Close), the market ended January at 106.04(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 102.25(Month Low) to 107.38(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SFH went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should penetrate 102.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 98.61(Average Objective).
June Swiss Franc(CME): The SFM1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 107.28(Prev Close), the market ended January at 106.14(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 102.50(Month Low) to 107.42(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SFM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 102.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 98.10(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(CME): The JYH1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 123.28(Prev Close), the market ended January at 121.96(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 119.52(Month Low) to 123.45(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, JYH went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 119.52(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 116.08(Average Objective).
June Japanese Yen(CME): The JYM1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 123.42(Prev Close), the market ended January at 122.07(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 119.83(Month Low) to 123.42(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, JYM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should penetrate 119.83(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 115.25(Average Objective).
April Platinum(NYMEX): The PLJ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1778.2(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1800.9(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 1710.6(Month Low) to 1851.1(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, PLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1851.1(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 2033.8(Average Objective).
June Palladium(NYMEX): The PAM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 804.40(Prev Close), the market ended January at 821.80(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 749.00(Month Low) to 828.35(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, PAM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAM should exceed 828.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 968.87(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 443.95(Prev Close), the market ended January at 446.55(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 421.85(Month Low) to 449.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 449.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 508.64(Average Objective).
July Copper(CMX): The HGN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 442.30(Prev Close), the market ended January at 446.40(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 422.80(Month Low) to 446.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGN should exceed 446.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 503.26(Average Objective).
May Crude Oil(NYM): The CLK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 93.41(Prev Close), the market ended January at 95.82(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 89.40(Month Low) to 95.82(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should exceed 95.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 107.13(Average Objective).
June Crude Oil(NYM): The CLM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 93.78(Prev Close), the market ended January at 96.78(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 90.50(Month Low) to 96.78(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 96.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 107.19(Average Objective).
May Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 252.89(Prev Close), the market ended January at 264.96(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 248.49(Month Low) to 264.96(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should exceed 264.96(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 294.77(Average Objective).
June Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 252.72(Prev Close), the market ended January at 265.10(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 248.16(Month Low) to 265.10(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBM should exceed 265.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 297.16(Average Objective).
May Natural Gas(NYM): The NGK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 4.434(Prev Close), the market ended January at 4.470(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 4.321(Month Low) to 4.822(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGK should exceed 4.822(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 5.575(Average Objective).
June Natural Gas(NYM): The NGM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 4.475(Prev Close), the market ended January at 4.513(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 4.363(Month Low) to 4.850(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NGM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should exceed 4.850(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 5.568(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1308.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1341.00(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 1268.75(Month Low) to 1364.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SX went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1364.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1450.19(Average Objective).
July Wheat(CBOT): The WN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 832.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 889.50(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 807.00(Month Low) to 909.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, WN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should exceed 909.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 981.09(Average Objective).
July Wheat(MGE): The MWN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 890.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 974.25(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 875.75(Month Low) to 997.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(MGE) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, MWN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWN should exceed 997.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 1057.94(Average Objective).
May Oats(CBOT): The OK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 398.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 404.25(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 375.00(Month Low) to 412.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, OK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should exceed 412.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 450.65(Average Objective).
May Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 125.230(Prev Close), the market ended January at 129.575(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 123.000(Month Low) to 130.600(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 130.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 137.604(Average Objective).
August Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCQ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 125.800(Prev Close), the market ended January at 129.985(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 123.850(Month Low) to 130.500(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCQ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCQ should exceed 130.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 136.079(Average Objective).
May Cocoa(ICE): The CCK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3052(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3354(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 2842(Month Low) to 3390(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CCK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 3390(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3717(Average Objective).
July Cocoa(ICE): The CCN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3064(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3341(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 2862(Month Low) to 3374(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CCN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCN should exceed 3374(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 3686(Average Objective).
July Lumber(CME): The LBN1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 332.1(Prev Close), the market ended January at 332.0(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 317.5(Month Low) to 352.1(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LBN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should penetrate 317.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 296.4(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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